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CreweCold
06 May 2020 18:14:58


 


I'm in the same boat as you having missed most of the news today for various reasons. However, it occurs to me we will be easing at an earlier stage than a number of other European countries. If 4000 to 6000 positives are still being recorded daily next week I worry things could quickly escalate in the UK again today. I can only assume they have looked at Germany, Denmark etc. and have decided Mr R is apparently not bouncing back for reasons not fully known. We are into Donald Rumsfeld territory with known unknowns and the danger of unknown unknowns.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Can you imagine the damage caused if we end up having to lock down again in 6 weeks time, both to the economy and socially. I foresee a clusterfuc k on the horizon and this time it'll be squarely on the government.



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
The Beast from the East
06 May 2020 18:17:59


 


Most probably. A variety of married late-middle aged shaggers also visiting Popular Jo of late. It's becoming so frequent that I can only assume they are playing tag team. 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Social distancing not an option! Herpes and Corona combined would be an interesting mutation


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
06 May 2020 18:18:10

We know that the death rate is highly correlated to both population and population density. This is a relationship that is so strong it transcends all scales (local, regional, national, international) and dominates over demography related factors (such as age - note that average age in each area is inversely correlated with death in the UK because areas with an elderly population tend to be less dense)


 


So the natural measure of how a country performed is: DA/P^2 where D is the number of deaths, A is the area of the country, P population. i.e the deaths is correlated linearly with both the population and the population density so it divides twice.


 


Under this  metric we have: (1E-8 deaths km^2 people^-2)


I'd call this the 'Q severity index'


 


Sweden: 1229.0


Belgium: 1173.3


USA: 662.2


Spain: 593.9


France: 308.8


Italy: 246.4


UK: 165.5


South Korea: 40.38


Germany: 36.1


Japan: 1.32


Singapore: 0.04


Hong Kong: 0.008


 


What this shows is that the UK is actually not doing too badly, Germany is the best in Europe. Singapore and Hong Kong unsuprisingly doing extremely well. Sweeden (no lockdown), Belgium and USA failing miserably.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Joe Bloggs
06 May 2020 18:19:14

I personally think the lockdown should be enforced until the end of the month. A bit more forceful than it has been. 


With a clear and transparent plan to begin easing the lockdown from 1st June onwards, but then only slowly. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

The Beast from the East
06 May 2020 18:20:25


 


 


Some labs are rumoured to have a 7-day backlog at present


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Farcical. a person could be infected by the time the result came back


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
ozone_aurora
06 May 2020 18:20:38


Been busy this afternoon but just seen the stats. 6000 positives sound like a lot especially as fewer tests were done. What on earth is going on with Tier 2? surely there must be a serious risk that many people going into hospital with x, y or z are coming out with corona?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I think the problem with hospitals is that people go in for normal emergencies, like Stroke, & then catch the CV-19. HST, I sure hospitals do their best keep patients apart from those with CV-19 & keep the place very clean, but it must be extremely difficult to do so (especially if there's staff &/or equipment shortage).

Maunder Minimum
06 May 2020 18:22:31


 


 


ah...good to see, Maunder that your compassionate side is coming  to the fore!!  I just wish I could teleport you into one of those camps in northern  France or in Lesbos just for a few days so you could hear some of the stories, the human tide of misery and desperation of folk who have lost EVERTYTHING to escape a war zone or to try to start a new life somewhere else that offers just the possibility of some hope....


Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 


Lesbos is one thing, but there is no reason for a single migrant to be in a miserable camp in Calais. Those who are there CHOOSE to be there, because they are illegal, economic migrants who want to get into the UK without its ID cards and with its massive black economy. That is the size of it.


Those who have a genuine claim to asylum, can claim it in any one of the European nations they have crossed to get to Calais. Those who have a proper claim to come to the UK can apply through the normal channels, even if they first register in another European country.


No, I have less than zero sympathy for those camping out illegally in the Pas de Calais - they have zero right to come to the UK - all the more so during the present crisis with the UK population in lockdown.


New world order coming.
The Beast from the East
06 May 2020 18:25:37


 


 I can only assume they have looked at Germany, Denmark etc. and have decided Mr R is apparently not bouncing back for reasons not fully known. We are into Donald Rumsfeld territory with known unknowns and the danger of unknown unknowns.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


These countries have populations that are educated and responsible and who will follow social distancing guidelines. Also proper test and trace infrastructure and a lower base of infections to begin with


It could be that the sunshine and UV is having the desired effect in supressing the rate, so we can get back to some normality for a few months until the second wave in the Autumn


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
06 May 2020 18:29:18


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 18:34:26


 


Genuine Dr's. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Try this:


Though Widely Discredited, Bakersfield Doctors' COVID-19 Test Conclusions Spread Like Wildfire



But public health experts were quick to point out the major flaws in the doctors’ methodology – namely that only a tiny percentage of Californians have actually been tested, a group that is more likely to test positive and is not representative of the larger population.




But public health experts were quick to debunk the doctors’ findings as misguided and riddled with statistical errors — and an example of the kind of misleading information they are forced to waste precious time disputing.


https://www.kqed.org/news/11814749/bakersfield-doctors-dubious-covid-19-test-conclusions-spread-like-wildfire



Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Chichesterweatherfan2
06 May 2020 18:53:02


 


Lesbos is one thing, but there is no reason for a single migrant to be in a miserable camp in Calais. Those who are there CHOOSE to be there, because they are illegal, economic migrants who want to get into the UK without its ID cards and with its massive black economy. That is the size of it.


Those who have a genuine claim to asylum, can claim it in any one of the European nations they have crossed to get to Calais. Those who have a proper claim to come to the UK can apply through the normal channels, even if they first register in another European country.


No, I have less than zero sympathy for those camping out illegally in the Pas de Calais - they have zero right to come to the UK - all the more so during the present crisis with the UK population in lockdown.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


So if you were in their situation and had family or friends in the UK, you wouldn’t attempt to join them? You know for certain that no one there might just have a case to apply to  reside in the UK? Sure, most probably won’t but as human beings surely they have some rights, atleast the right to apply...How you can say you have zero sympathy is quite beyond me! 

Maunder Minimum
06 May 2020 19:12:02


 


So if you were in their situation and had family or friends in the UK, you wouldn’t attempt to join them? You know for certain that no one there might just have a case to apply to  reside in the UK? Sure, most probably won’t but as human beings surely they have some rights, atleast the right to apply...How you can say you have zero sympathy is quite beyond me! 


Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 


There is a reason why there are next to no Syrians in the Calais camps and that is because they have a legitimate claim to asylum which they naturally exercise well before getting to France. After all, if you have a legitimate claim, why would you spend months in the miserable conditions of the camps in northern France?


People have the right to apply to come to the UK of course they do - but from wherever they happen to be. If in France, register with the French authorities and lodge an application. That so few do, lends credence to the expectation that the majority in Calais are in it for the main chance to earn black money in the UK.


Anyhow, we are straying from the topic in question - except that infected migrants from Calais may be pushing up the positive rates in Kent - all illegal migrants who are detained by the authorities are tested for COVID-19.


 


New world order coming.
xioni2
06 May 2020 19:14:01


 Italy does it, and the Americans.


Very early on a read a report on why it was Germany had a lower death rate to Italy, and Italian (Dr or similar) said that they were recording any death were coronavirus was present as a coronavirus death whereas Germany weren't.


Watched a video recently with some U.S Dr's recently talking about fellow colleagues being pressured into writing coronavirus on death certificates even when they didn't believe it to be the cause..


 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


As mentioned many times, this was wrong for Germany - they measure their deaths in the same way we do and they had been including deaths at care homes from the start. Do you have any source for Italy or the US? 


 

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 19:19:59


 


Shouldn't really make much of a difference to the % (or proportion) of those infected though should it. 100 out of 1000 and 1000 out of 10000 is still 10%.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

My point is, 6,111 isn’t 10.75% of 100,000.  It makes a difference when we’re saying the percentage of positives of 100,000 tests done several days ago, is a percentage of those 64,000 tested today. 


Gavin said test results take up to 7 days to come through but he quoted the following:


UK data



  • Number of tests - 64,463

  • People tested - 57,006

  • Positive - 6,111


Confirmed rate for positive tests has increased to 10.72%


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Heavy Weather 2013
06 May 2020 19:38:10


But we’re not just testing those in hospital now and hospital admissions are down, so that suggests a lot of the new cases are mild.


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Lets be careful here. Your quite correct that these tests are taking place outside of hospital - however, let’s not forget what can appear mild at the start could become problematic later on. Those positives over the last few days could see an increase in hospital admissions in 10-14 days. We saw with BJ that initially he reported mild symptoms and within 10 days he was in intensive care.


With positives tests still in the high 4ks I think it’s a terrible mistake we are going to make. Germany have eased their lockdown because they are reporting less that a 1000 cases a day AND they are testing far more than us.


Here are some charts for Germany:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/


Our charts for new cases are alarming, when you look at the 7 day moving average.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 19:46:34


 Lets be careful here. Your quite correct that these tests are taking place outside of hospital - however, let’s not forget what can appear mild at the start could become problematic later on. Those positives over the last few days could see an increase in hospital admissions in 10-14 days. We saw with BJ that initially he reported mild symptoms and within 10 days he was in intensive care.


With positives tests still in the high 4ks I think it’s a terrible mistake we are going to make. Germany have eased their lockdown because they are reporting less that a 1000 cases a day AND they are testing far more than us.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not suggesting we’re anywhere near in the clear and I agree with everything you’re saying.  I’m just putting a different angle on the figures because we can’t take them at face value when we don’t know the severity of the cases.  Perhaps a better picture is gained by hospital admission figures. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
David M Porter
06 May 2020 19:47:35


Aah!  Hindsight is a wonderful thing David!  But at least you went and came back safely!  You see, at that point, nobody would have ever believed that it was going to be so bad and spread so quickly.  We can all look back and see how we might have done things differently!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Very true, Caz.


I have to be honest and say that prior to early March, while I was very aware as many people were at that time of what was going on with the virus overseas, at that point I wasn't really that worried at all about it being a problem in this country. There again, I am not a member of the government any more than anyone else here is and even if I or anyone else had been really concerned, there wasn't really anything that I & others could have done other than write to our MP to express our views. I seem to recall MM saying in one of the early threads that he did so in February wrt the issue of borders and whether or not they should have been closed.


That said, I still think, as I have done since March, that more attention should have been paid by HMG to the horrendous situation that was developing in northern Italy back in late Feb/early March. That was the real warning shot for me that the virus was capable of doing the same damage to human life in any European nation and developed western country as was the case in the far east. My own belief is that if HMG had taken the same kind of action as, for example, the Germans did and at the same time they did, we may well not have ended up with the kind of very high death toll that we now have in this country.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Justin W
06 May 2020 19:48:00

HMG’s coronavirus response has been an utter catastrophe. Reading the overseas media it is clear that our friends abroad are aghast at the incomprehensible failures of our government which have condemned tens of thousands of people to unnecessary deaths.


Some of us warned back in February and early March that a calamitous debacle was coming thanks to Johnson’s insouciance. We were ridiculed by the usual apologists. That disaster has now unfolded and there will be many more than 100,000 excess deaths before this is over.


Johnson should be on trial or dragged from Downing St by the mob. Instead, the apologists fete him and tell us that comparisons with other countries are ‘pointless’. Others try to spin this as the fault of the NHS. Others try to tell us that it’s all down to population density or present some nonsensical equation. Such bollox is an insult to the thousands who have risked their lives fighting this completely avoidable tragedy and those who have perished.


This is the most shameful and sad episode for this country in my lifetime. I am so angry about this I can barely speak about it.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
CreweCold
06 May 2020 19:49:10


 


Lets be careful here. Your quite correct that these tests are taking place outside of hospital - however, let’s not forget what can appear mild at the start could become problematic later on. Those positives over the last few days could see an increase in hospital admissions in 10-14 days. We saw with BJ that initially he reported mild symptoms and within 10 days he was in intensive care.


With positives tests still in the high 4ks I think it’s a terrible mistake we are going to make. Germany have eased their lockdown because they are reporting less that a 1000 cases a day AND they are testing far more than us.


Here are some charts for Germany:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/


Our charts for new cases are alarming, when you look at the 7 day moving average.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Agree. And what's more, the increase in new cases coincides with the lockdown fraying at the edges. Our cases are simply not low enough to ease restrictions.


As I said, in 6 weeks time we could be in big trouble again. Where would we go from there?



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 19:49:57

Report from Imperial on Italy's exit strategy...


New report models Italy's potential exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown


It finds that if the country returns to just 20% of mobility levels before the lockdown – mobility being a measure of people going to work, shops, visiting friends and family etc. – then deaths could rise again within just three weeks.


https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/189351/new-report-models-italys-potential-exit/


(will it be widely discredited because of their philandering lockdown breaking Professor?)


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
SJV
06 May 2020 19:51:48


HMG’s coronavirus response has been an utter catastrophe. Reading the overseas media it is clear that our friends abroad are aghast at the incomprehensible failures of our government which have condemned tens of thousands of people to unnecessary deaths.


Some of us warned back in February and early March that a calamitous debacle was coming thanks to Johnson’s insouciance. We were ridiculed by the usual apologists. That disaster has now unfolded and there will be many more than 100,000 excess deaths before this is over.


Johnson should be on trial or dragged from Downing St by the mob. Instead, the apologists fete him and tell us that comparisons with other countries are ‘pointless’. Others try to spin this as the fault of the NHS. Others try to tell us that it’s all down to population density or present some nonsensical equation. Such bollox is an insult to the thousands who have risked their lives fighting this completely avoidable tragedy and those who have perished.


This is the most shameful and sad episode for this country in my lifetime. I am so angry about this I can barely speak about it.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I admire your passion Justin and I broadly agree with much of what you're saying.


I hope there will be an inquiry once this is (as close to as it can be) over. I think regardless of how it went and who's in charge that should be standard practice anyway. I just hope if that were to happen it wouldn't be the usual dragged out obfuscated affair that the public forgets about and findings quietly hidden away.

picturesareme
06 May 2020 19:52:40


 


As mentioned many times, this was wrong for Germany - they measure their deaths in the same way we do and they had been including deaths at care homes from the start. Do you have any source for Italy or the US? 


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Ours is a shambles.. go back read the reply i left you after this one, Germany certainly are not recording deaths in the way we do!!

picturesareme
06 May 2020 19:54:36


 


As mentioned many times, this was wrong for Germany - they measure their deaths in the same way we do and they had been including deaths at care homes from the start. Do you have any source for Italy or the US? 


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Highly doubt Germany are recording deaths in the way we are. It's an utter shambles the way we do it, and its no wonder our death rate is so high! 


https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/covid-19/adapting-to-covid/covid-19-death-certification-and-cremation 

Maunder Minimum
06 May 2020 19:55:35


 


Agree. And what's more, the increase in new cases coincides with the lockdown fraying at the edges. Our cases are simply not low enough to ease restrictions.


As I said, in 6 weeks time we could be in big trouble again. Where would we go from there?


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


We have to ease restrictions or there won't be an economy - lives versus livelihoods, soon becomes just lives, since a broken economy leads to poverty, sickness and death in itself.


The Government needs to make sure the resources are there for all the testing and contact tracing we need, since that is the only way to prevent cases from ballooning once more.


 


New world order coming.
Essan
06 May 2020 19:56:00


Ikea are opening up soon, so it must be something more significant

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Ik*a are arguably the least essential shop on the planet in that they sell absolutely nothing anyone needs and lots of stuff that can be bought cheaper elsewhere,   They are the Amazon of the high street  




 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA

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