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Justin W
10 May 2020 08:23:38


 


The problem with “unnamed” is that is equates to “unaccountable”. Who cares if 90% turns out to be nonsense as no one can be held to account for confusing leaks, conflicting opinions, random statistics?


It’s not the messenger that is the problem it is the system that allows such influential stories to be released with no consequences to those responsible when they turn out to be garbage. I guess responsibility is something that needs to apply only to “us”.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


You can euphemistically call it ‘the system’, Michael. Its more accurate name is ‘the Government’.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Phil G
10 May 2020 08:24:20


 


18000 new cases a day? Let me guess the number is from “a source”?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Marr has just mentioned 20,000 new cases a day? Where have all these come from as I thought we were reporting on the whole around 4k a day? If this is the case, really enforces that just about all figures are null and void, not just here. I suppose we are capturing the 4k. Is the extra 16k an estimate of those going undetected/not accounted for?

Ulric
10 May 2020 08:26:05


The rate of decline was always expected to be very gradual and we’re, as you say, not at the level where anything more than a token easing is merited.  Unfortunately too many, although still a minority, have decided to disobey the current rules.


The threshold of 100,000 deaths only needs 300 per day from here and we’re still above that level.  That’s supported by your quoted 18,000 (identified) cases per day; given the CFR that’s also around 300 deaths.


 If the R value ticks above 1, as is almost inevitable as more people are out and about and interacting, I still expect another period of harsher constraints.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Early on, it was always one of the important questions, in my mind at least, whether the curve would be symmetrical or be significantly skewed, with a long right tail. The measure of the effectiveness of control measures is the length of that tail.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Joe Bloggs
10 May 2020 08:26:57

 


No - you’re wrong because Facebook says so. 


https://www.facebook.com/722370783/posts/10157368704805784/?d=n


 


It is a valid point.





The post implies the Government should be immune from criticism because, in a nutshell, we live in a crowded country compared to others in Europe. 


Everyone is lapping this of course, ignoring all the other epic failings by the Government. To many, they simply can do no wrong. Scary. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Gandalf The White
10 May 2020 08:27:20


 


I agree with her. The message will be interpreted as: no need to stay home, do what I like, but maybe wash my hands every now and then. 

The green colouring is also an odd choice - why not keep it red unless they’re deliberately trying to persuade us to think the danger is passing?


Originally Posted by: John p 


Given the lamentable mixed messages over the last few days perhaps the new slogan should be:


YOUR GOVT GOT IT WRONG


TOO MANY HAVE DIED


WE DON'T HAVE A CLUE


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


bledur
10 May 2020 08:27:35


 


Exactly, and then HMG can come out and say that it was never policy. 


I also think there is a culture of fear amongst the lobby journos. We have a government that will remove access of they get asked the difficult questions.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I also think there is a culture of fear amongst the lobby journos


 Yes very frightening i should imagine?


 

SJV
10 May 2020 08:27:48


 


No - you’re wrong because Facebook says so. 


https://www.facebook.com/722370783/posts/10157368704805784/?d=n


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


It's a good job I'm not much of a drinker Joe! 

westv
10 May 2020 08:28:14


A timeline of events that list the catastrophic decisions made by HMG and Boris in particular from the turn of the year. Scandalous, criminal and maddening. The fact that some on here still defend this government and refuse to lay any blame at their door is mind-boggling.


How Boris Johnson refused to fight the virus


Don't read if you want to greet your Sunday in a good mood.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


As I said when this was posted yesterday, I can't believe someone has created a website just to tell us that. 


At least it will be mild!
bledur
10 May 2020 08:29:11





The post implies the Government should be immune from criticism because, in a nutshell, we live in a crowded country compared to others in Europe. 


Everyone is lapping this of course, ignoring all the other epic failings by the Government. To many, they simply can’t do wrong. Scary. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 I did mean the point about Population Density

Heavy Weather 2013
10 May 2020 08:30:55


 


I agree with her. The message will be interpreted as: no need to stay home, do what I like, but maybe wash my hands every now and then. 

The green colouring is also an odd choice - why not keep it red unless they’re deliberately trying to persuade us to think the danger is passing?


Originally Posted by: John p 


The green will be subliminal messaging. It’s a GO colour. 


This new messaging is a total clusterfuck. 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gandalf The White
10 May 2020 08:32:31


 


Early on, it was always one of the important questions, in my mind at least, whether the curve would be symmetrical or be significantly skewed, with a long right tail. The measure of the effectiveness of control measures is the length of that tail.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


The lengthening of the tail is the consequence of the measures, however inadequate, to limit the peak. If you want a symmetrical curve you do absolutely nothing and have a mega crisis with deaths into six digits and a collapsed healthcare system and then it's over. What we see is the result of a government that thought symmetry was worth considering, until reality bit hard.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


SJV
10 May 2020 08:33:13



 


No - you’re wrong because Facebook says so. 


https://www.facebook.com/722370783/posts/10157368704805784/?d=n


 


Originally Posted by: bledur 

It is a valid point.


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Discounting Belgium in the tables due to them including suspected deaths in their figures, we are still 3rd worst in Europe going by deaths per million. Then when you've got the ONS figures saying the death toll is closer to 52k not 31k the point becomes invalid.

doctormog
10 May 2020 08:33:23

On the subject of numbers, I found this article (from the Italian National Institute of Statistics) interesting. Out of the 25000 or so excess deaths from 20th Feb to the 31st March, only 54% of these excess deaths were attributed to Covid-19.

https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/05/Istat-ISS_-eng.pdf 

Surely that leaves only two main scenarios? Either the number of Covid-19 related deaths is significantly higher than reported in Italy or there is/was another serious underlying issue. I think analysis over time will paint a much clearer picture than daily statistics can mange.


Joe Bloggs
10 May 2020 08:33:36


 


 I did mean the point about Population Density


Originally Posted by: bledur 


I know you did, and I agree that it’s possible that we’re likely to be disproportionately affected by the virus because of this - hopefully this will eventually become clear. 


It’s more the fact that there’s an assumption by some that the Government have done no wrong.


 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Roger Parsons
10 May 2020 08:34:45


Fairly typical of this forum to blame the messenger. This govt's press strategy is based upon briefings by advisors who are unnamed. It is a condition of admittance to what today passes for the 'Lobby' that you agree not to name the three or four advisors who dish out these gems. Take the fiasco last week over the lifting of restrictions supposedly scheduled for tomorrow. That was not 'made up' by the press but briefed in advance by one or other of these advisors. 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I take your point, Justin. The media can have quite a fuzzy interpretation of this convention in my experience, but as you say the formality of the "lobby" is well understood. Equally, a confidential government adviser is not an unknown person, but someone providing confidential information and advice to a client. They will have accountability through that client and through law of course. What is not known is where much information on the Web has been gathered - even on here. Many of us have privileged or confidential information from previous "incarnations" which we would not discuss. I expect you do too. What I find obnoxious are the leakers or trolls who for money or attention and with the disingenuous excuse of "public good" put information into the public domain which they were contractually required to keep private. [From that I exclude making a report to the police if a law has been broken.]


The boredom factor is another issue - where the media have flogged an issue to death before those in charge have had the moment to present it. I have always disliked feeling I am being manipulated rather than being informed.


R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Gandalf The White
10 May 2020 08:34:59


Someone posted on Facebook:  


Remember, if Boris lifts lockdown restrictions today, it’s not because this is over!  It’s because there’s space for you in ICU!


Whatever the media has been reporting from their ‘unnamed sources’ I don’t think we’ll see much lifting!  No doubt the media will say the experts have changed their minds.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Succinct and expressed brilliantly. 


👍


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ulric
10 May 2020 08:38:59


The problem with “unnamed” is that is equates to “unaccountable”. Who cares if 90% turns out to be nonsense as no one can be held to account for confusing leaks, conflicting opinions, random statistics?


It’s not the messenger that is the problem it is the system that allows such influential stories to be released with no consequences to those responsible when they turn out to be garbage. I guess responsibility is something that needs to apply only to “us”.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


That's quite an accurate observation of how things work these days. Responsibility, and thus risk, is assumed to rest with the individual.


Who's to blame? Why, the man on the Clapham omnibus of course!


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
SJV
10 May 2020 08:43:27


 


As I said when this was posted yesterday, I can't believe someone has created a website just to tell us that. 


Originally Posted by: westv 


Apologies, I didn't realise it had been posted yesterday 


Not sure what your issue with it being created in the first place though.

llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 May 2020 08:45:04


 


I take your point, Justin. The media can have quite a fuzzy interpretation of this convention in my experience, but as you say the formality of the "lobby" is well understood. Equally, a confidential government adviser is not an unknown person, but someone providing confidential information and advice to a client. They will have accountability through that client and through law of course. What is not known if where much information on the Web has been gathered - even on here. Many of us have privileged or confidential information from previous "incarnations" which we would not discuss. I expect you do too. What I find obnoxious are the leakers or trolls who for money or attention and with the disingenuous excuse of "public good" put information into the public domain which they were contractually required to keep private. [From that I exclude making a report to the police if a law has been broken.]


The boredom factor is another issue - where the media have flogged an issue to death before those in charge have had the moment to present it. I have always disliked feeling I am being manipulated rather than being informed.


R.


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

I'm sure you would only feel you're being manipulated if you run out of


salt


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Justin W
10 May 2020 08:45:33

From the Sunday Times:



In the first admission from within government that the lockdown might have been mishandled, a senior official said: “The view is that the public will forgive us for mistakes made when going into the lockdown but they won’t forgive us for mistakes made coming out of it.”



Forgive HMG for the ‘mistakes’ which have cost tens of thousands of lives?


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
10 May 2020 08:47:31

Maybe it was also that the enforcement was 'wishy washy'...


Met police group criticises 'wishy washy' government instructions


The government's pandemic response has been "wishy-washy", a body representing police officers in London has told BBC Radio 4, amid concerns that the public has begun ignoring lockdown restrictions.


Metropolitan Police Federation chairman Ken Marsh said authorities "needed to be firmer right from the beginning".


"Had we been very stringent from the off - it is painful, but it’s not overly painful in terms of what you’re actually being asked to do - then I think we would have a better result now," Marsh said.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52601754


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Ulric
10 May 2020 08:48:17


The lengthening of the tail is the consequence of the measures, however inadequate, to limit the peak. If you want a symmetrical curve you do absolutely nothing and have a mega crisis with deaths into six digits and a collapsed healthcare system and then it's over. What we see is the result of a government that thought symmetry was worth considering, until reality bit hard.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Uk vs. European average.


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=GBR+Europe


We're not covering ourselves in glory.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Ulric
10 May 2020 08:50:08


Apologies, I didn't realise it had been posted yesterday 


Not sure what your issue with it being created in the first place though.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


I posted it yesterday. I think it is a necessary record of the timeline of events.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
SJV
10 May 2020 08:51:36


 


I posted it yesterday. I think it is a necessary record of the timeline of events.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


David M Porter
10 May 2020 08:54:40


A timeline of events that list the catastrophic decisions made by HMG and Boris in particular from the turn of the year. Scandalous, criminal and maddening. The fact that some on here still defend this government and refuse to lay any blame at their door is mind-boggling.


How Boris Johnson refused to fight the virus


Don't read if you want to greet your Sunday in a good mood.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


There is little doubt in my own mind that HMG's failure during the first couple of months of this year to realise the threat that Covid-19 posed to the UK and act sufficiently to mitigate its threat has led to many, many more people dying from the virus in this country than might otherwise have been the case. Even if I was a lifelong Conservative voter, I think I would find it almost impossible at the moment to defend the way the government has handled this crisis right from its beginning.


As I have said numerous times before, I don't blame HMG in any way for the virus appearing in the first place; we all know who was responsible for that. I think most people realise that it was going to be virtually impossible to keep it out of the UK for the duration and that lives would be lost once it did reach the UK. However, the fact that more than 30,000 have now died is, to me anyway, a disgrace to this nation and has exposed many serious shortcomings not only in what was and wasn't done during the months leading up to the crisis, but also over a much longer period of time.


Once this is over, I really think that a major root and brach review is going to be needed in the UK to find out where we have gone wrong as a country in the past, and to make sure we learn the lessons to ensure as much as is humanly possible that a catastrophe likes this never happens again.


 


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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