That's my guess too. 

I mentioned the person I know who died earlier.  He works away and his wife runs the pub.  He’d come home on the last Friday night before pubs closed and was pulling pints behind the bar as it was packed to the rafters with people having their final booze binge.  He was taken to hospital five days later, subsequently put on a respirator and died three weeks later.  

It seems there’s no doubt he already had the virus that night so you would surely expect others to have caught it.  We half expected to be a hotspot, yet nobody came down with symptoms!   It just seems there are unknown factors involved!

I also don't understand this, if there are now very reliable antibody tests, then why not first do some random, representative testing and then use them more widely. They won't solve all our problems, but they'd help a lot, even if some people have to do them at GP surgeries. It may happen I guess later on.

The whole objective of the test-trace-isolate strategy is to separate the healthy people from the infected ones and isolate the virus. Knowing with a reasonably high level of confidence who has short term immunity can really help that strategy.

I've been doing exactly this for the last month or so. Middle-aged spread has been creeping up and my BMI has tipped into the overweight category. So I've been out cycling a lot in the absence of anything else to do; 100 miles last month and 77 so far this month. I've been taking different routes, been through Yateley a couple of times and on the old runways at Blackbushe, Rob has probably passed me at some point!

I've also been consciously avoiding the snack cupboard and having smaller portions since the start of last week. I've lost nearly 1kg in the last week but I still want to lose another 6kg or so!

The thing that gets me is there's not even any mention of it by the government! It's as if, having been bitten by the crappy "instant result" tests from China, they've given up entirely.

Of course, there's the small matter of getting a 5ml / 10ml blood sample, so the kits will be more expensive and more people will fail or be unable to follow the instructions, but even so... it seems daft to me.

I agree. Information this would give is the ultimate key to the best way to ease the lockdown.

As an aside I found it hilarious to see one of the signatories - Lord Bethell of Romford. Knowing Romford as I do, they must have been getting short of titles!

This is absolutely hideous.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52645276

I'm a healthy 33 year old but this is why I'm still scared of this virus.

Also to add to this last winter saw fewer then average deaths.. or was just February & March? Anyway it's irrelevant what is relevant is just prior to up tick in death's there had been a period of below average deaths. 

Apologies if this has already been debated, but opening UIA for the first time today and seeing 6 pages of today's thread... I couldn't face reading all of it!

Anyway, there remains an increasingly strong argument for helicopter money to be used to clear the accumulated debt.

In normal times, the government effectively being handed c£300bn to then spend it would (I'm being a little simplistic) create inflationary pressure, and once that wheel begins to turn, it can gather pace and become near impossible to stop (at least without economically/socially catastrophic measures)

Yet the current debt is being accumulated through the replacement of GDP lost through the suspension of a huge chunk of the economy.

In short, the inflationary hit of the govt spending £300bn is happening right now. But it's being [more than] outweighed by the deflationary pressure of a masive proportion of the economy being suspended. Being 'given' the £300bn it's already spent won't lead to heightened inflation.

Indeed they would!

Meanwhile New Zealand shows how to take the virus seriously:

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-border-controls

New Zealand of course is not strictly comparable to European countries, it is a remote and sparsely populated archipelago in any case.

However, the only way to defeat the virus, is to clean up internally to the extent that testing, tracking and contact tracing can work and then to keep it out by preventing mass travel to and from overseas.

My concerns are:

1) We have begun lifting lockdown before the app and contact tracing teams are in place

2) We have begun lifting lockdown before antibody testing

3) We have begun lifting lockdown from what looks to be a relatively high ongoing rate of infection

I expect cases to be rising again in 4 weeks time or perhaps earlier. 

It's just so random. This is what strikes me the most about this virus; millions have had it with absolutely no symptoms, even more have just mild symptoms. Others seem to have been exposed to it repeatedly but not caught it. Yet a small minority - yes, most with underlying medical issues or are very old, but certainly not all - have the infection become really serious and either make them seriously ill or kills them.

The Russian roulette element is so scary.

Good point but also gets people into pubs and to also add a miserable wet summer with low temps are the last thing we need then 

From the start, when I've done shopping for my parents (generally twice a week), I've taken it into their house and we've chatted - at +2m distance - for 15-30 mins. On occasion, the kids have accompanied me.

Most weeks, they've also visited our house once a week and parked up. My dad gets out of his car ad stands, my mum stays in sat down. We all maintain a safe distance and have a chat. The last 3 weeks, my dad has also come to collect our dog and take it back to theirs for a few hours.

Last Friday when they visited, I suggested they come through to the back garden and we all spent a good hour chatting - again, all at safe distance. My dad had a pint and my mum a cuppa. 

I know some of the above is, strictly speaking, against the 'rules' and it will nudge up the risk factor - although from nil to negligible. 

There has to be a balance between staying safe and trying to maintain some of the things in life that sustain you emotionally.

The virus has perhaps affected him more that he is letting on. His brain is clearly not as sharp as it was, and without the cheering mob of delinquents behind him, his clown act doesn't work. 

He doesn't do serious and he doesn't do detail. He never has. He is the last person you want in charge in a crisis

Over the past couple of weeks I’ve been doing sit-ups every morning before I get out of bed and I’m picking up pace on my walks, in the hope that I won’t need to buy a complete new wardrobe when we can eventually go out!  

It’s really all about awareness and hopefully during the past few weeks, people will have noticed changes in their weight and fitness.  Also, they’ll have taken note of the growing evidence that obese people are more susceptible to severe symptoms of this virus!

Agreed. We have lifted "lockdown" (it never was a proper one anyway) 2 weeks too soon

Summer heat and sunshine may help mitigate, but the virus will continue to spread, albeit it at a lower rate. Death will become the new normal

With holidays abroad unlikely, for the sensible anyway, for those that can afford I can see an uptick in motorhomes here where you can travel to most places, and have little worry about the accomodation.

It's almost as if people understand there's a difference in the quality of virus management between the EU and UK isn't it?

It's present throughout life, of course.

What if you slip in the shower? What if you're in a car accident on the way to work? What if you have a stroke out of the blue and die?

(In my case, the first hasn't happened, the second happened last October as a guy pulled out of a side junction onto the main road and I couldn't stop in time - he did a runner, and the third affected my mum, who had a sudden stroke and died aged 48).

If the risk is negligable, as it seems to be in this case, I'd say it's not worth fretting over.

(First you'd have to catch covid, then develop a cytokine storm and die - the first is of course unlikely but not impossible, the second, if you're under 60 or so is exceptionally unlikely).

It doesn't mean it isn't a risk, but just as two people win a million on premium bonds every month, or a million on Euromillions twice a week, so some younger, no-known-medical-conditions people will die from covid. They're just incredibly unlucky is all.

EDIT: And as Maunder says below, any such deaths should be thoroughly investigated in the hope we can learn more from them.