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Gavin D
17 May 2020 16:43:25

Italy



  • 675 new cases 

  • 145 new deaths

Essan
17 May 2020 16:47:10


 


Really? I had no idea! You must try to mention that more often, Andy.


Originally Posted by: NickR 




It's a shame it need mentioning.   But you rich kids seem to forget that we don't all have unlimited income. 


 



Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
SJV
17 May 2020 16:49:09


 


What's the saying... "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"


First waves always fizzle out eventually, or rather die down to background noise, so the professor isn't saying anything new.


The key is not to repeat what happened in the likes of 1918!



(Chart from Wiki, showing the second and third wave of the 1918 flu outbreak in the UK).


Edited: chart is the whole of the UK, not just London.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Essan
17 May 2020 16:55:14
My friend owns a small business. She was hoping to expand and employ 2 more staff this year.

For the past 2 months she has been working every day to keep her business going. She has drawn exactly £0.00 in income over this period.

She has sleepless nights because she may have to make some of her staff redundant if she cannot fully reopen and trade returns to what it was. Bearing in mind that social distancing rules makes it difficult to have 2 members of staff in the same area, even if the customers are there ......


Not everyone is bothered about whether they can get 2 weeks holiday this year. Not everyone has a guaranteed job.


Not everyone on TWO has the faintest idea what some people are going through.

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Devonian
17 May 2020 16:58:25


 


What's the saying... "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"


First waves always fizzle out eventually, or rather die down to background noise, so the professor isn't saying anything new.


The key is not to repeat what happened in the likes of 1918!



(Chart from Wiki, showing the second and third wave of the 1918 flu outbreak in the UK).


Edited: chart is the whole of the UK, not just London.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes, though, aiui, there we no measure at all to flatten the first peak back then?


If we were in a similar situation now I guess all those most likely to be killed by this virus would already have been (and it's a vast number, hence lock down). So, we aim to (well, this is old news - but worth repeating as some think the virus has simply gone away)  flatten the peak(s) so health services can cope.


 

NickR
17 May 2020 16:59:42





It's a shame it need mentioning.   But you rich kids seem to forget that we don't all have unlimited income. 


 



Originally Posted by: Essan 


You're the walking definition of inverted snobbery.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
NickR
17 May 2020 17:01:17

My friend owns a small business. She was hoping to expand and employ 2 more staff this year.

For the past 2 months she has been working every day to keep her business going. She has drawn exactly £0.00 in income over this period.

She has sleepless nights because she may have to make some of her staff redundant if she cannot fully reopen and trade returns to what it was. Bearing in mind that social distancing rules makes it difficult to have 2 members of staff in the same area, even if the customers are there ......


Not everyone is bothered about whether they can get 2 weeks holiday this year. Not everyone has a guaranteed job.


Not everyone on TWO has the faintest idea what some people are going through.

Originally Posted by: Essan 


Maybe we do, and maybe we all have stories we can tell of ourselves or people we know, but we don't choose to plaster it all over a weather forum. Maybe you shouldn't assume you have a monopoly on understanding what poverty is.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Devonian
17 May 2020 17:01:57

My friend owns a small business. She was hoping to expand and employ 2 more staff this year.

For the past 2 months she has been working every day to keep her business going. She has drawn exactly £0.00 in income over this period.

She has sleepless nights because she may have to make some of her staff redundant if she cannot fully reopen and trade returns to what it was. Bearing in mind that social distancing rules makes it difficult to have 2 members of staff in the same area, even if the customers are there ......


Not everyone is bothered about whether they can get 2 weeks holiday this year. Not everyone has a guaranteed job.


Not everyone on TWO has the faintest idea what some people are going through.

Originally Posted by: Essan 


I do, my brother is in a similar situation. So there...


The question for me (and I'm salaried, I chose not to be a businessman) has always been: which is the lesser of evils? Carry on as normal, let the virus rip (several 100K deaths by now), or flatten the peaks, or a combination? Which would have been be you choice?

Essan
17 May 2020 17:04:20


 You're the walking definition of inverted snobbery.


Originally Posted by: NickR 






You really don't get it.  But hey, you have lots of money.    Not everyone is as lucky.  But why should you care?   You're a socialist ....


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Retron
17 May 2020 17:14:00


 


Yes, though, aiui, there we no measure at all to flatten the first peak back then?


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


There's a really interesting (albeit US-centric) set of charts here.


https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/


Social distancing, school closures etc were all used back then, with varying levels of effectiveness. I'm sure the same would have been happening here, too.



If we were in a similar situation now I guess all those most likely to be killed by this virus would already have been (and it's a vast number, hence lock down). So, we aim to (well, this is old news - but worth repeating as some think the virus has simply gone away)  flatten the peak(s) so health services can cope.



Indeed, the aim was to keep the peak below the rate at which the NHS couldn't cope. We've managed it, but people getting all complacent (as per that Tweet saying it might die out anyway) won't help in the long term. We have, of course, to be very aware of 1918 and that second, and indeed third, wave.


 


Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
17 May 2020 17:19:56

My friend owns a small business. She was hoping to expand and employ 2 more staff this year.

For the past 2 months she has been working every day to keep her business going. She has drawn exactly £0.00 in income over this period.

She has sleepless nights because she may have to make some of her staff redundant if she cannot fully reopen and trade returns to what it was. Bearing in mind that social distancing rules makes it difficult to have 2 members of staff in the same area, even if the customers are there ......


Not everyone is bothered about whether they can get 2 weeks holiday this year. Not everyone has a guaranteed job.


Not everyone on TWO has the faintest idea what some people are going through.

Originally Posted by: Essan 


Yes, it must be very difficult for many. Just speaking to my cousin who runs a tea room in York. She has been very lucky. She has been able to furlough all her staff and has a £25k handout and the landlord says he is giving her a rent holiday. SHe will miss out on the tourist trade but otherwise thinks it is no problem. The pizza business in town has gone on line only but says he has never made so much money! However not everybody will fair so well. 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Roger Parsons
17 May 2020 17:20:50


 


Yes, I've heard of similar relationships between public schools and those in the state sector. 


There are often bursaries and scholarships available in public schools to help those who cannot afford the fees.


Where the school has an entrance examination then the abilities/potential of the pupils will be higher than in a comprehensive school. Then you have the aspirations of the parents and the home environment: if you're paying thousands of pounds for your child's education you are expecting it to give them an advantage in life through bother higher academic qualifications and extracurricular activities.


From talking with my brother over the years it seems that there are the disruptive minority in every class that makes it more difficult for the others to be taught and to learn. In my experience you just don't get that in a public school.


As for getting kids away from their parents, that's only true of boarding schools and even then only those where you board for the entire term/half-term. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Thank you, Peter. I know you will forgive me for the ironic throw away generalisation " ...so what was the advantage in the private sector?  Getting kids away from their parents and peers for much of the year? You tell me." and I was of course referring to the boarding side in particular.


I have been educated and/or have taught in most kinds of UK school, private, Public, Grammar, Secondary and Comprehensive, and foreign schools too, and can confirm your statement that that there often is a "disruptive minority in every class that makes it more difficult for the others to be taught and to learn." Almost without exception, this has a correlation of some sort with the culture and mores in which these individuals have grown up and learned their values. These are the kids who make the lives of other pupils unhappy and often a living hell. Teachers too sometimes. The private sector is not exempt from a variety of such dangers but perhaps it does buffer pupils somewhat. It does not prevent them meeting some dodgy and unpleasant characters, but offers enough safety and stability perhaps to prompt parents who can afford it to make the choice for private education.


Having said that I enjoyed my teaching experience in every school I taught in and hope I managed to hit the best of standards everywhere.


R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Essan
17 May 2020 17:24:50


Maybe we do, and maybe we all have stories we can tell of ourselves or people we know, but we don't choose to plaster it all over a weather forum. Maybe you shouldn't assume you have a monopoly on understanding what poverty is.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


My apologies.  I though this was the Covid 19 thread.   

Anyway,  look forward to you only posting weather related comments on TWO from now on.  


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
fairweather
17 May 2020 17:25:01


  It really would!  I’m not sure I’d want to be the first to get vaccinated though.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


...as long as it works ok on monkeys most of us on here should be okay 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
17 May 2020 17:26:09


 



Let's all hope the trials go well and the Oxford vaccine proves to be the answer.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Wouldn't that be fantastic. They have always been very optimistic so fingers crossed.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Essan
17 May 2020 17:27:22


The question for me (and I'm salaried, I chose not to be a businessman) has always been: which is the lesser of evils? Carry on as normal, let the virus rip (several 100K deaths by now), or flatten the peaks, or a combination? Which would have been be you choice?


Originally Posted by: Devonian 



I really don't know.  I am on the far right and the far left when it comes to what we should do/have done .....    


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
The Beast from the East
17 May 2020 17:33:18


Italy



  • 675 new cases 

  • 145 new deaths


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


And easily track, trace and isolate this number


You cant do it with at least 3,000 like we do. And the tracers need to be trusted by the local community and know the area. 


We have to hope that Professor Pangloss is correct and the virus will peter out over the Summer. If not, then we are in trouble


Look at India and Mexico. Hot weather may not be the silver bullet as it is with flu


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
17 May 2020 17:39:08


  It really would!  I’m not sure I’d want to be the first to get vaccinated though.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Even if 30 million are ready to roll in Sept it will take a long time to give them out. If there is a second wave, you are more likely to catch the virus first


I don't understand why they didn't infect volunteers on purpose and speed up the process! 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
17 May 2020 17:50:02

If only we had a PM like this, but I fear our media wouldn't allow it 


 




"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
17 May 2020 17:53:30


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
17 May 2020 17:54:44


 


The danger from schools reopening isn't to children or the vast majority of staff, it is to the vulnerable family members of those children and staff. While it appears that children are largely unaffected by the virus we don't understand fully their ability to spread the disease. When the infection rate remains relatively high, as it does currently in the UK it's not unreasonable to question the wisdom of putting lots of people in places where social distancing is difficult and in many places impossible.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


Exactly. Too simple for Gove to grasp that it is about transmission risk not about kids catching it. If they are carrying it back to a parent with underlying conditions and that parent dies that child is going to have a great future - not!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
bledur
17 May 2020 18:17:39


 


He's a dangerous twat. He is not an expert in this field, but tries to pass himself off as such. Check him out on wikipedia.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


 Wikipedia, yes that must be true.

SJV
17 May 2020 18:27:05


 


 Wikipedia, yes that must be true.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


Ah that tired old cliché  Wikipedia is a lot better than it used to be. It'll never be a primary source for reference, not like scholar sites such as JSTOR, Google Scholar and twitter 

Essan
17 May 2020 18:35:58


 


Ah that tired old cliché  Wikipedia is a lot better than it used to be. It'll never be a primary source for reference, not like scholar sites such as JSTOR, Google Scholar and twitter 


Originally Posted by: SJV 



You forgot youtube and, indeed, anyone who says something you agree with (which by definition means they must be right)      Obviously, any source that disputes you is, by definition, wrong.  And everyone on TWO knows a lot more about everything than anyone else in the the world.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
17 May 2020 18:37:13

Latest R estimates from Germany are sailing pretty close to the wind IMHO as it is well before the effect of the easing of lockdown will kick in. 


The current estimate is R= 0.94 (95% prediction interval: 0.78 – 1.10) and is based on electronically notified cases as of 17/05/2020, 12:00 AM. Similarly, the 7-day R-value is estimated by using a moving 7-day average of the nowcasting curve. This compensates for fluctuations more effectively. The 7-day R-value then compares the 7-day average of the new cases on one day with the 7-day average four days earlier. The 7-day R thus represents a slightly later course of infection of about one to a little more than two weeks ago. The 7-day R-value is estimated at 0.87 (95% predictation interval: 0.78 - 0.97) and is based on electronically notified cases as of 17/05/2020, 12:00 AM.


 


https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-05-17-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

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