Pushing in rather reluctantly to my way of thinking - I wouldn't bet the farm on it

As long as it doesn't set the pattern for the next 3 months. Going on recent 2-3 month weather patterns, this is a distinct possibility. 

interesting do I detect a flip away from the cold plunge.

ECM 12z also says northerly what northerly plot thickens!

Today's review a bit late due to need to go to pharmacy & collect medicines. So...

GFS - Continuing with HP over Norway and linked to another cell over the Atlantic  Tue 2nd (but with some LP from France creeping into the SE) and then the latter HP collapses, replaced by LP and a N-ly flow down the N Sea to connect with the abovementioned LP by now over Spain - very much like yesterday's ECM. The N-lies continue on and off to Sat 13th, with the UK on the fringe of mild air coming round the Atlantic high and cold air from N Norway. A bit of a toss-up as to which will prevail on any given day but go west for the best weather. After that, the Atlantic and N European HPs re-connect for generally fine weather over the UK and a deep LP steams across past Iceland.

GEFS - for the S, warm to Sat 6th (more so than yesterday) steep drop to Mon 8th (mean  of runs about 2C below norm, control much cooler)rising back to norm by the end of that week and finishing well above average. Scotland similar but more scatter; mean is average, not warm, and no doubt about the cool spell. Rain in most areas from Wed 3rd continuing to end of run, irregular distribution and no prolonged wet spell.

ECM - develops in the same way as GFS to Fri 5th but the N-ly following is stronger and closer to the UK; howeverthe N-ly gives up in short order, and the ECM model having abandoned the idea of an Iberian LP, instead produces LP near Iceland on Tue 9th with light NW-lies. A sharp cotrast with GFS at this point

Just for interest, there's still some snow cover in Siberia - but not a lot

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Pretty unsettled and cooler across the board this morning from about 4th June. How long it lasts and how much rain we get still to be decided. But it looks like at least 5 days of unsettled weather coming up.

GFS settles down again fairly quickly and looks decent at least for the south right out to the end after that. 

ECM definitely one to avoid for summer fans. 

And for all the talk of an unsettled spell, looking at various 7/10 day forecasts for my area, this coming Wednesday seems to be the only day with significant rain forecast. After that yes it’s cooler (high teens) but plenty of sunshine still. 

NW-ly jetstream sets in over UK from Wed 3rd and stays there to Sat 6th after which it meanders around a bit (but not the full cut-off low previously forecast) before resuming a conventional w-E flow across N Britain Thu 11th- Tue 16th

GFS - Current HP over Norway collapses Wed 3rd, a little earlier than previously forecast, and that with a new HP in the Atlantic generates a N/NE airstream for some days, to about Thu 11th, sometimes weaker, sometimes stronger, with the N Sea holding the boundary between colder N Arctic air and milder NW Atlantic air, and that boundary could easily shift one way or the other. Azores HP the pushes in until Thu 16th, but only just covering the UK so best in the SW.

GEFS - in the S, temps a bit above norm until Sat 6th then a big dip recovering to norm around Thu 11th, rainfall deferred until Sat 6th after which shown irregularly with a few runs showing big spikes towards Tue 16th (BBC weather last night indicated some heavy showers in the SE this week but GEFS only trivial amounts except 4th Jun in far SE). In the N, rain is shown earlier (Wed 3rd) and continues on and off throughout. Temp dips earlier, too, but above norm at end of run

ECM - agrees to Sat 6th but then gives UK a bigger share of the cold air before whisking it out of the way by Mon 8th and then  - quite different - bringing in LP off the Atlantic centered over Scottish borders 995mb Wed 10th & covering all the UK

Has to be said though, longer term prospects are looking increasingly poor now. Dare I say June is looking like a cool and changeable month in comparison to what has come in spring. Would not surprise me in the least to have a below average June in terms of temperatures and above average rainfall..the first signals are not looking great.

My hunch for June is after this little cool spell is for the month to be dominated by easterlies which will be very warm but could bring a lot of thundery rain especially to the south.

A washout June already?  Hmmm 

I'd be surprised if we only got 16c with sunshine under sunny conditions in early June. It would have to be a screaming northerly for that.

Cooler than average summer months in recent time seem to have been even rarer than cooler/colder than average winter months. In recent poor or mediocre summers, many months in terms of temperature seem to have been average or even slightly above. I don't think even the horror that was summer 2012 was especially cool for much of the time.

Was it last June that was really wet? I seem to recall we had over 100mm of rain. We could certainly do with a bit of rain at the moment but in the reliable time frame there's still very little on offer. 

Having said that most of the models seem to be heading for a more unsettled period. I'd be happy with that if we got some rain followed by a return to sunshine mid month. 

Well after a wet January, February, March, and April, I wouldn't say a dry May has yet quite balanced things out.  

Chance here of some low ground June snow first thing in the morning in N scotland!

Deep cold extends throughout the trop this time (unlike the may event) which means more showers and heavier showers. Gotta be somewhere that sees a few flakes. Aberdeen, Wick, Lerwick?