theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
31 May 2020 16:10:34


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_132_2.png 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


And alot less interesting!


We have a chance at a 1975 type scenario!


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
31 May 2020 16:27:34

Azores high builds in nicely after 168h on the GFS 12z after 4 or 5 very autumnal days.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
phlippy67
31 May 2020 20:37:29
The charts for the end of next week are absolutely ridiculous, how the hell does a large North Sea low from nothing and bring gale force Arctic NElies in June...!!!??? when we had a winter devoid of any such event, last months Arctic northerly was a disaster for wildlife and decimated the bee and butterfly population here on the east coast and the Swallows/House Martins....this one will probably finish off the Swifts too, just unbelievable...!
moomin75
31 May 2020 22:15:05

Dear God the 18z is as bad as it gets for summer charts. Cold northerly gales, snow in the north, temps struggling to reach the low double digits even in the extreme south. An absolutely horrendous run. Very wintry. Even chance of a ground frost down in the south. Bye bye summer, hello Autumn.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
picturesareme
31 May 2020 22:22:40


Dear God the 18z is as bad as it gets for summer charts. Cold northerly gales, snow in the north, temps struggling to reach the low double digits even in the extreme south. An absolutely horrendous run. Very wintry. Even chance of a ground frost down in the south. Bye bye summer, hello Autumn.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Drama queen.. 


its still running and it as i type is only up to 8th June has only 8C being the coldest one morning in the south, and wintry precipitation for the highlands, and come the 8th high pressure is already returning with warmer temps. Sorry no 4-6C across central southern England one morning 

moomin75
31 May 2020 22:31:53


 


Drama queen.. 


its still running and it as i type is only up to 8th June has only 8C being the coldest one morning in the south, and wintry precipitation for the highlands, and come the 8th high pressure is already returning with warmer temps.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

No you're wrong there. Minimum temperatures Sunday morning down to 3c around the south Midlands. Check the TWO minimum 2m temps. Some prone spots could get very close to freezing on this run. That would be extremely damaging. Thankfully this is the pub run and is probably too extreme, but it is looking as bad as it gets.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
picturesareme
31 May 2020 22:40:19


No you're wrong there. Minimum temperatures Sunday morning down to 3c around the south Midlands. Check the TWO minimum 2m temps. Some prone spots could get very close to freezing on this run. That would be extremely damaging. Thankfully this is the pub run and is probably too extreme, but it is looking as bad as it gets.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=9&carte=6


 

moomin75
31 May 2020 22:41:43


 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=9&carte=6


 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I'm not for one minute suggesting it will get that cold, but it's what the TWO 2m minimum temps are showing. Hopefully off the mark.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
picturesareme
31 May 2020 22:50:30


I'm not for one minute suggesting it will get that cold, but it's what the TWO 2m minimum temps are showing. Hopefully off the mark.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Well not sure how the two one goes about deciding what temps to put on the chart, but even for 1pm (12GMT) tomorrow it only has 13C on the south coast which is colder then the forecasted overnight low tonight, and the metoffice have 22C by lunch time.


Edit: I see what it is showing it is showing the coldest option and if click on max it shows warmest.. which if you do this for the sunday night moomin you will see it has 7-10C overnight rather than the 4C

marco 79
01 June 2020 06:08:06

GFS still modelling a distinct windy and cold weekend..Sub -c uppers..looks pretty stormy esp for NE Scotland, soon dissolves by Monday though..although still looks cool and unsettled 

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
moomin75
01 June 2020 06:25:46


GFS still modelling a distinct windy and cold weekend..Sub -c uppers..looks pretty stormy esp for NE Scotland, soon dissolves by Monday though..although still looks cool and unsettled 


Originally Posted by: marco 79 

Indeed, and I know I will get hammered for this, but to me, the first half of June looks a near write off. Second half, who knows, but won't be long before we consider June as not looking good at all. One third of summer will then be gone.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Joe Bloggs
01 June 2020 06:45:51


Indeed, and I know I will get hammered for this, but to me, the first half of June looks a near write off. Second half, who knows, but won't be long before we consider June as not looking good at all. One third of summer will then be gone.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


It isn’t especially controversial - it’s about time we had a cool and unsettled couple of weeks. 


A cool northerly spell is nailed on now - the question mark is what comes afterwards. Will high pressure nudge back in, or will we be plagued with low pressure? Still a bit too early to say, but the latter is probably the favourite looking at the output so far this morning. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 June 2020 06:52:38

10-day summary looks as if it is staying cool all across W Europe for a week before the cold patch becomes restricted to France and countries bordering the N Sea http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Rain for the UK in week 2


GFS - the N/NE-lies are with us from Wed 3rd, particularly strong Sat 6th esp in E Scotland, with LP  980 mb slowly sinking into the N Sea/ E England and filling by Wed 10th.  Azores High puts in an appearance for a few days, but we then get a repeat of Wed 3rd scenario as from Mon 15th


GEFS - for England, warm to Thu 4th, dropping to 4-5 C below seasonal norm to Mon 8th then slowly recovering to norm. Rain in all runs for Thu 4th (only a few had this yesterday) and each run in its own way forecasts some more significant rain from Wed 10th. Scotland, temps similar though later on (i.e. wed 17th) some runs are showing higher temps; and the chance of rain quite high around Sun 7th but only showing in a few runs after that.


ECM - similar to GFS but holding the LP at the end of the week a bit further E i.e close to Norway

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
01 June 2020 07:11:20


Indeed, and I know I will get hammered for this, but to me, the first half of June looks a near write off. Second half, who knows, but won't be long before we consider June as not looking good at all. One third of summer will then be gone.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


The next week or so looks very poor no question now . But we still can't predict the weather beyond 2 weeks, so we may still end up with a 1976 or a 2007 like summer. That's what makes it interesting.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
01 June 2020 07:18:32


 


 


The next week or so looks very poor no question now . But we still can't predict the weather beyond 2 weeks, so we may still end up with a 1976 or a 2007 like summer. That's what makes it interesting.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

My money is on neither Ally. I think overall it will end up very average....a nondescript summer with nothing exceptional. All in all, very boring, but I do think we can write of June.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Rob K
01 June 2020 07:22:48
The GEFS has really ramped up the rainfall right out to the end of the run. What was looking like a quick 3 or 4 day blip now does look like it could last for a couple of weeks, which certainly goes against the optimistic BBC monthly summary for June.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Devonian
01 June 2020 07:24:21


Indeed, and I know I will get hammered for this, but to me, the first half of June looks a near write off. Second half, who knows, but won't be long before we consider June as not looking good at all. One third of summer will then be gone.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


For heavens sake. We've had two months of wall to wall sunshine and you write the above.


There will be a lot more hot summer weather unless a monsoon develops.

moomin75
01 June 2020 07:27:52

The GEFS has really ramped up the rainfall right out to the end of the run. What was looking like a quick 3 or 4 day blip now does look like it could last for a couple of weeks, which certainly goes against the optimistic BBC monthly summary for June.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The BBC forecasts are awful and always have been. This will change next week in any case. June is not looking good, and there's no hiding that fact, the next two weeks (at least) look very poor indeed.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
sunny coast
01 June 2020 07:51:29
Well hopefully it will keep the idiots away from cramming beaches and overstretching emergency services and help prevent a second lockdown
moomin75
01 June 2020 07:53:45

Well hopefully it will keep the idiots away from cramming beaches and overstretching emergency services and help prevent a second lockdown

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 


Indeed. There won't be a need for a second lockdown because if June becomes a washout, people will be staying indoors anyway.


 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
briggsy6
01 June 2020 08:07:23

Hopefully no more scenes of idiots tombstoning off the top of Durdle Door and having to be rescued by the emergency services then!

Location: Uxbridge
bledur
01 June 2020 08:24:13


My money is on neither Ally. I think overall it will end up very average....a nondescript summer with nothing exceptional. All in all, very boring, but I do think we can write of June.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 It is the 1st of June . How you can write that i have no idea. We have had the driest spring in living memory and the sunniest so even the most blinkered person could see there might be some unsettled weather to come. This might be a short term change or a complete pattern change . We will have to wait and see . No forecast i have ever seen to this date over 40 years has ever correctly predicted a complete pattern change in advance.

moomin75
01 June 2020 08:25:45


 


 It is the 1st of June . How you can write that i have no idea. We have had the driest spring in living memory and the sunniest so even the most blinkered person could see there might be some unsettled weather to come. This might be a short term change or a complete pattern change . We will have to wait and see . No forecast i have ever seen to this date over 40 years has ever correctly predicted a complete pattern change in advance.


Originally Posted by: bledur 

I am entitled to my opinion and based on gut feeling and experience I think we can write it off. Time will tell, and happy to be wrong on this! 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
bledur
01 June 2020 08:29:37

The GEFS has really ramped up the rainfall right out to the end of the run. What was looking like a quick 3 or 4 day blip now does look like it could last for a couple of weeks, which certainly goes against the optimistic BBC monthly summary for June.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 Yes much needed rain for many.


bledur
01 June 2020 08:33:37


I am entitled to my opinion and based on gut feeling and experience I think we can write it off. Time will tell, and happy to be wrong on this! 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 Even if June turns out to be a washout it will only be redressing the balance of a very dry Spring . One third off Summer gone but you had a Summer in May as good as it gets the whole Summer some years.

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