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doctormog
01 June 2020 18:01:41


A max of 1c and heavy snow in June in parts of Scotland must be absolutely exceptional. Unbelievable charts.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Not at 4000ft asl it’s not. Cold for early June yes but not absolutely exceptional.


Quantum
01 June 2020 18:30:30


Pert4 looks considerably colder than the June 1975 snow event.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
01 June 2020 18:32:59

Oh boy



 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Devonian
01 June 2020 18:36:12


 


The 12z GFS for your neck of the woods at the weekend is absolutely extraordinary. I don't think I've ever seen anything colder in June. For the rest of us, cold and unsettled for a very long time sums up the charts up to 192 hours, and probably beyond.


Shockingly vile.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Absolutely brilliant - if it happens... We desperately need rain and I'm sick of of the constant sunshine.

moomin75
01 June 2020 18:45:58

Deleted


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
01 June 2020 18:47:10


I hope we are not revisiting this comment in a few weeks time when people are flooded out, which I fear may happen.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
01 June 2020 19:00:19

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I see nothing in any of the output that is presently available which suggests that anywhere in the UK is likely to be "flooded out" anytime soon.


What is being suggested are cooler and more unsettled conditions for a while than we have been used to of late, but nothing unusually bad for this time of year. Let's keep things in perspective, eh?



Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
01 June 2020 19:07:10


Perhaps I'm missing something, but I see nothing in any of the output that is presently available which suggests that anywhere in the UK is likely to be "flooded out" anytime soon.


What is being suggested are cooler and more unsettled conditions for a while than we have been used to of late, but nothing unusually bad for this time of year. Let's keep things in perspective, eh?



Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

We will see David. I am going for a very wet June followed by a steady improvement to something around average.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
01 June 2020 19:37:07


We will see David. I am going for a very wet June followed by a steady improvement to something around average.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


As you say we will see. That said, there is presently no mention in any of the MetO daily updates of any unusually wet weather for anywhere in the UK later on this month. For your thoughts to be proved right, I think the thoughts of the MetO are going to have to change significantly as we go further into this month.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Whether Idle
01 June 2020 20:14:09


Indeed, and I know I will get hammered for this, but to me, the first half of June looks a near write off. Second half, who knows, but won't be long before we consider June as not looking good at all. One third of summer will then be gone.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Moomin Has Spoken.  The weather world now cowers 'neath whatever flimsy psychological shelters that come to hand...


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
01 June 2020 20:15:49


We will see David. I am going for a very wet June followed by a steady improvement to something around average.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Nothing in the models that I can see suggests anything "very wet". Sunshine and showers but not much in the way of major frontal rain events. The heaviest rain may well be from thundery downpours coming up from the south


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Sevendust
01 June 2020 20:36:31


 


Nothing in the models that I can see suggests anything "very wet". Sunshine and showers but not much in the way of major frontal rain events. The heaviest rain may well be from thundery downpours coming up from the south


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Wrong set up. If we get southerly tracking lows or cut off lows for a prolonged period then it could be very wet but that isn't on offer currently. That said, it will be a tad unsettled but rainfall amounts look quite small

Brian Gaze
01 June 2020 20:56:50

To be fair today's GFS 12z is showing twice as much rain in the next 10 days as some places have had in the last 2 months. Wouldn't rely on it though.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
01 June 2020 22:53:52


To be fair today's GFS 12z is showing twice as much rain in the next 10 days as some places have had in the last 2 months. Wouldn't rely on it though.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Still less than an inch in 10 days for many. That would disappear into the dust around here. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
01 June 2020 23:16:24

Well the 18z is looking rather toasty after a week of meh weather. 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 June 2020 06:57:06

Jetstream running from NW across UK until Sat 6th when it curls round and supports LP over the N Sea. Successive loops extend and develop the LP progressively further south to Brittany Sat 13th where it sticks until Wed 16th, W flow resuming across Shetland. quite different to yesterday's forecast, matches a seriously large LP i the N Sea shown on BBC last night (though BBC still thought that rain would be a metter of chance)


GFS - matches above. 980mb in N Sea Sat 6th (less direst arctic feed than previously shown), decaying to slack trough from Norway to Cornwall Wed 10th, centre over Brittany 1000mb Sat 13th, Azores HP back in charge over UK Tue 16th onwards and then looking very warm


GEFS - temps for all of UK below seasonal norm Thu 4th - Thu 11th then recovering to a little above through to thu 18th, quite a lot of rain about but not much agreement between runs.


ECM - similar but positions next week's LP closer to east coast than GFS, and trough from Wed 10th less continuous, breaking up into small local centres, one of which later develops 1005mb over Biscay Fri 12th


Models a week or so ago were hinting at this sort of unsettled spell but then went off it. Now it's back in force! Summer will resume in mid-June.


 


 


 


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
02 June 2020 09:06:16

Well a rubbish week or so to come but ECM now also picking up the idea of 'hot easterlies'  by the 11th. Seems to be the quickest route back to summer heat.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
02 June 2020 09:37:52


Well a rubbish week or so to come but ECM now also picking up the idea of 'hot easterlies'  by the 11th. Seems to be the quickest route back to summer heat.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


I do love a good summer easterly. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
02 June 2020 10:47:07

I'm hoping for at least 5mm tomorrow and as much again over the following few days, to stop grass burning off completely.
About half silage and hay area which still resembles a well trodden lawn in August, however the areas not all but dead might respond and bulk up a bit yet.
Spring sown crops and reseeds (I don't have this year) look disastrous that I've seen round about, with all but moist patches practically *not there* 


SJV
02 June 2020 16:58:46

GFS 12z brings cool and unsettled weather for the rest of the week and the weekend with suppressed temperatures nationwide. Several decent chances of rain for a lot of us, hopefully doing the world of good for the gardens.


The persistent trough slowly fills out into the following week with slack conditions and the likelihood of heavy showers with temperatures recovering to the high teens, perhaps low twenties further south and east by mid next week. Warmer air lies over the continent and the GFS 12z op is tentative in wafting it towards us, giving a gentle east or ENE feed later next week with drier conditions away from the far south which could see some thundery stuff.


I reckon a fair few rogue members will again show the blowtorch scenario later next week as some align just right. IMO there isn't any drastic changes from the 06z with the low over Biscay not as pronounced this time around.

Downpour
02 June 2020 18:04:53


GFS 12z brings cool and unsettled weather for the rest of the week and the weekend with suppressed temperatures nationwide. Several decent chances of rain for a lot of us, hopefully doing the world of good for the gardens.


The persistent trough slowly fills out into the following week with slack conditions and the likelihood of heavy showers with temperatures recovering to the high teens, perhaps low twenties further south and east by mid next week. Warmer air lies over the continent and the GFS 12z op is tentative in wafting it towards us, giving a gentle east or ENE feed later next week with drier conditions away from the far south which could see some thundery stuff.


I reckon a fair few rogue members will again show the blowtorch scenario later next week as some align just right. IMO there isn't any drastic changes from the 06z with the low over Biscay not as pronounced this time around.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


 


we’ll see how much we get here. Hoping for a good dousing as the gardens and lawns are bloody desperate. But usually it’s downgraded at the time. Like living in central France in early August currently. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
moomin75
02 June 2020 18:07:00


 


 


we’ll see how much we get here. Hoping for a good dousing as the gardens and lawns are bloody desperate. But usually it’s downgraded at the time. Like living in central France in early August currently. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 

The lawns may be desperate, but all I am hoping for is we don't get what I am really fearing. What we don't want is a month long deluge which will flood, which is a genuine risk. Once a pattern change sets in, it can take ages to reset. A moderate rainfall for a while would be welcome, I accept that, as long as we don't get too much.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
SJV
02 June 2020 19:01:18

ECm 12z pretty decent with the unsettled weekend potentially a distant memory by day 10 as high pressure ridges in and a slack continental feed establishes with the risk of thundery stuff further south.


moomin75
02 June 2020 19:19:16


ECm 12z pretty decent with the unsettled weekend potentially a distant memory by day 10 as high pressure ridges in and a slack continental feed establishes with the risk of thundery stuff further south.



Originally Posted by: SJV 

That certainly looks better. Hopefully a new trend.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
phlippy67
02 June 2020 21:10:54
Horrendous f/cast for the next few days for us here on the east coast, gale force NEly winds, heavy showers rattling through...!! and i can't see how a 'summer' easterly is any better next week...looks like the big coat will be coming out again and the heating will be on...!!

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