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sunnyramsgate
03 June 2020 11:37:42
Agreed
Brian Gaze
03 June 2020 11:54:30

No sign of the west European heat dome on the GFS 6z. Everyone I spoke to privately (inc some quite well known) had binned the chance of a cooler than average summer. How amusing if we manage to conjure one up this year.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Rob K
03 June 2020 11:57:52


No sign of the west European heat dome on the GFS 6z. Everyone I spoke to privately (inc some quite well known) had binned the chance of a cooler than average summer. How amusing if we manage to conjure one up this year.  



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Seems like every temperature anomaly chart I ever see, summer or winter, shows insanely high positive anomalies in northern Russia. Has all the permafrost there melted yet? 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." ā€” Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
03 June 2020 12:59:06

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Retron
03 June 2020 13:07:54


No sign of the west European heat dome on the GFS 6z. Everyone I spoke to privately (inc some quite well known) had binned the chance of a cooler than average summer. How amusing if we manage to conjure one up this year. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


More chance of winning Euromillions than that happening, IMO!


We are, of course, well overdue a colder-than-average June-August period. The weather doesn't work that way, but sooner or later we'll get one.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2020 14:05:23


 


More chance of winning Euromillions than that happening, IMO!


We are, of course, well overdue a colder-than-average June-August period. The weather doesn't work that way, but sooner or later we'll get one.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Conversely we've had very few consistently warmer than normal June-August periods in recent years, and exceedingly few predominantly dry and sunny ones, certainly compared with the underlying warming trend and with the other 3 seasons. 2018 (which still had a mediocre August) was the exception rather than the rule.


You could probably make an argument for us being "overdue" a run of warm sunny summers or a cool summer. We've had a lot of wet, cloudy but warmish ones, and a lot of mixed summers with good and bad months.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
03 June 2020 14:17:29


 


More chance of winning Euromillions than that happening, IMO!


We are, of course, well overdue a colder-than-average June-August period. The weather doesn't work that way, but sooner or later we'll get one.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Indeed. That's a very widely held view!  It would be amusing if it turned out to be wrong. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
David M Porter
03 June 2020 15:34:15


In my defence David, I won't change my views and if I am wrong, which many people think I will be, I will be here to take the criticism. I always am and leave myself open to it if its deserved. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I get that Kieren and I and no-one else has any right to expect you to change your views.


Having said that, IMHO it might be better if your thoughts were backed up by some reasonably solid evidence (be it from model output or elsewhere) which might give people generally a better insight into why you predict one type of weather or another for a long time in advance. The way I see it, only going by gut feeling and pattern matching doesn't really give others much, if any, insight into why you are thinking a certain way.


If you were to say that you believe the rest of June will be poor and provided charts from a number of different model runs which were showing this consistently, I think more people would better understand the reasoning behind your thinking. This is only my opinion though and I'm sure that others may disagree.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
03 June 2020 15:42:28


 


It's each to their own really. Some tend to post a lot more when the outlook looks unsettled, ready to then write off the month while others post more when something warmer or more thundery shows up in the ensembles. There are a few who cherry pick to suit their narratives and over the years I've definitely done both. We need a balance 


GFS 00z operational was not a good run, though it wasn't well represented in the ensembles. We had a similarly shocking GFS operational in mid-May that never materialised. One poster leapt on both with a negative vigour that is unparalleled on this forum (seriously, Mooms, top up that glass mate!) 


Clearly, this unsettled spell we're in now has a bit more meat to it and is actually welcome for many given our parched landscapes. The moorlands around here have had a few small fires thanks to the oxygen-thiefs with their disposable BBQs so I'm all for the rainy outlook in the reliable.


Towards mid-month we have continued signs of a return to warmer weather, though there are big question marks over how dry it'll be especially further south where there could be issues with heavy showers or thunderstorms 


Regarding pattern matching, I think like any long-range forecasting tool it is a best guess based on the science of their choosing. It is flawed but occasionally the patterns will line up. Most of the time they won't due to the fact the charts aren't exactly the same nor is our climate. Like pretty much everyone on here I take any long ranger with a huge pinch of salt.


I don't mind any view now as long as their is some evidence to back that view up 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Agree completely Steve; evidence is the key.


Pattern matching is all fine and good but it relies too much on a historical perspective IMO and can assume that what happened in a given year in the past will likely happen again. Our climate is very rarely, if ever, as straightforward as that.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Downpour
03 June 2020 16:12:28


 


Indeed. That's a very widely held view!  It would be amusing if it turned out to be wrong. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Trolling your own site Brian? wink

Chingford
London E4
147ft
moomin75
03 June 2020 16:28:24
Another absolutely abysmal GFS run here. It really is going to take a long, long time to get back to anything remotely settled. Expect headline making impacts as the month progresses.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Joe Bloggs
03 June 2020 16:50:22

Another absolutely abysmal GFS run here. It really is going to take a long, long time to get back to anything remotely settled. Expect headline making impacts as the month progresses.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Unless you check the MetO output at T+120. šŸ˜³


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png


 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
SJV
03 June 2020 16:55:18


 


Unless you check the MetO output at T+120. šŸ˜³


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


That doesn't fit Moomin's narrative 


A wet & cool GFS operational on the other hand? Get the lotion out 

moomin75
03 June 2020 16:57:16


 


Unless you check the MetO output at T+120. šŸ˜³


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I think if you roll that on to T+168 that trough to the north will head in the same directly and sit over the UK for a long period. Writing is on the wall for June.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Joe Bloggs
03 June 2020 17:00:16


I think if you roll that on to T+168 that trough to the north will head in the same directly and sit over the UK for a long period. Writing is on the wall for June.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Just making the point that relatively settled weather is forecast at T+120 and t+144 on the MetO run, and the GFS run too for that matter. Which completely ruins your argument when you say it’s unsettled as far as the eye can see. 


Sorry to state the obvious but I can’t be the only one seeing it! 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
David M Porter
03 June 2020 17:21:49

Another absolutely abysmal GFS run here. It really is going to take a long, long time to get back to anything remotely settled. Expect headline making impacts as the month progresses.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


That's assuming of course that this GFS run is proved correct. That's a big assumption to make at the moment, especially with a model that is as erractic as GFS often is.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
03 June 2020 17:45:59


 


That's assuming of course that this GFS run is proved correct. That's a big assumption to make at the moment, especially with a model that is as erractic as GFS often is.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

First rule of chart watching, the worst charts usually are the ones that verify. I fully expect a dreadful June, and nothing I've seen today changes my mind on that.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
tierradelfuego
03 June 2020 17:50:03

So OT I know but temps up to 19c and exactly 0.0mm of recordable rain today even being under a Radar that looked wet, not exactly the start I expected to your unsettled-fest though. How did you fare in Oxfordshire?

Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2020 18:42:17

In ECM we trust Moomin.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2020 18:48:59
Iā€™m not generally a big pattern matcher, but for those of you feeling a little depressed by what this forecast might mean for the summer: take a look at the archive charts from the first 3 weeks of June 1995.

Particularly the period between the false dawn on the 5th and the second cold plunge on the 7th-9th.

One of the closest matches between archives and current model output I can remember.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2020 19:05:43

Dam ECM all roads point too Moomin at the moment

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tierradelfuego
03 June 2020 19:13:25
Very much better GEFS tonight than we have seen for a week or so now... for the south at least of course, apologies for being IMBY.

850s struggle for a few days than mostly back towards promoting 2m temps of 20c or so (when you add on a couple of degrees as usual), as shown in general on the 2m charts. Rainfall is well down at an average of 1mm a day, actually disappointed at that given we are now about to hit 30 days with no measurable rainfall, today was a bust for sure.

Pressure looks slack, 1010mb so likely to give a few showers, perhaps beefy ones of course, but hardly a gloomfest.

Compared to recent days... reasonably consistent P's with only a few going widely off course, which is good to see.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
David M Porter
03 June 2020 19:30:14

I’m not generally a big pattern matcher, but for those of you feeling a little depressed by what this forecast might mean for the summer: take a look at the archive charts from the first 3 weeks of June 1995.

Particularly the period between the false dawn on the 5th and the second cold plunge on the 7th-9th.

One of the closest matches between archives and current model output I can remember.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Good point, Tim. I recall the coolness of early June 1995 very well, but then look at what came along in the final 10 days of that month.


Quite why anyone thinks the rest of June can be written off at this time I have no idea, especially when;


(a) There is still a fair bit of run-to-run volatility in the models, and


(b) The furthest ahead that any runs go is mid-June, in the case of GFS.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Joe Bloggs
03 June 2020 19:42:40

Nice run from ECM.


Plenty of settled weather. The jury very much still out. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
moomin75
03 June 2020 20:25:55


Nice run from ECM.


Plenty of settled weather. The jury very much still out. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

But the ECM mean in comparison is very poor in terms of pressure. It may warm up a bit (it can't really get much colder than the weekend looks set to be), but the pressure patterns are low pressure dominated, slack low pressure with heavy or torrential rain on a number of days. I fear we will be talking about flooding in 10-14 days time.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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