And here we are with the 12z outputs and we're still none the wiser for it with no change on UKMO's stance while GFS sticks with a high pressure orientated week next week. Let's see what the ECM come up with later on this evening.

Looks okay at 96hr and then looks like it will be good at 168hr.

As for the GFS 

Phew!  So glad there is a chance to return to normality in this thread.  As a lurker, it was beginning to appear somewhat....  hijacked.

As for gut feelings.  It is so important to maintain good gut health, don't you think?  Otherwise, some of the noises that emanate  can be very distracting to others  

A return to summer is inevitable.  The Met office have changed their forecast.

It might be wrong but GEFS is the hottest so far!

It does need to be taken notice of, I agree. I wouldn't go as far as backing it over any other output at this stage.

Encouraging GEFS again 😎

ECM following UKMO in a big way now. Accept the inevitable and move on. I think it could settle down eventually, but definitely not in the next week.

A slack humid warm set up in the south with the chance of some thunderstorms, and warm but dryer across the north. Hardly a washout, and not unusual for June. 

I would've thought any washout would be from localised slow moving downpours not representative of the prevailing conditions for most in that set up. I can't see how there would be any stagnant weather fronts to bring widespread flooding rains anyway.

It's a pattern I would gladly take! Some warmth plus the prospect of some lively home grown thunderstorms and muggy evenings  Yummy! 

ECM op was an outlier for low pressure (a lot) and relatively low 850s (a bit):

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=310&y=148&run=12&type=1&runpara=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=310&y=148&run=12&type=0&runpara=0

Good again this evening. Rapid recovery in upper temperatures as we get to the end of next week with a typical steady summer pattern and good agreement. An easterly drift could be an issue for eastern coasts but elsewhere pretty good with chances of thunder at times

Can't come soon enough

Morning all.

Awake very early this morning. 

Just had a quick check of the 00z output.

The MetO run has joined the party this morning and shows HP well in control by t+144.

GFS throws a spanner in the works however by t+180 with low pressure moving in from the WSW. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_186_1.png

More runs needed - very fine margins. 

Delete

The GFS op has gone off on one I think.

check out the mean https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_180_1.png

Vast majority of GEFS members show warm and settled weather https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU00_180_1.png

I’ve noticed the temps on my phone app have dropped from mid 20s at the end of the week to around 19 instead. I’m guessing it is following the ECM because the GEFS looks pretty warm. The GFS op run is more unsettled but still serves up some plumey warmth.

I wouldn’t call the ECM “horrendous” by any means, though. Plenty of HP around. 

You have a weird obsession with poor weather in early summer Mooms ?  Did you fall in a puddle or something as a child ? 

I hope that the ECM does verify to be honest, especially if that arrives with some warm air and thunder.

10-day summary looks cool and dry this coming week, a lot warmer and wetter next week. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

FAX chart shows a rapid fill for the current LP but not much HP about; indeed, new LP over Scotland 1008mb at T+120 (Wed 10th) with front crossing the UK including the S. This outlook also supported by the BBC last night.

GFS is having none of this, moving the Azores High in by Wed 10th, strengthening a little before developing LP 980mb off SW Ireland Sun 14th. This fills in situ over the following week while ridge of HP from Germany to Norway brings some warmth up from the S to affect the E side of UK at times, though at the end of the run (Mon 22nd) the LP shows signs of moving E across the UK. Not a bit like yesterday!

GEFS still optimistic on temps after Wed 10th (cool until then) with nearly all runs 2-3C above seasonal norm and not too much scatter. Rain starting again rather irregularly from that date (a couple of days later in the N) with some big totals in some runs from Wed 17th esp in the S & W.

ECM has a different distribution of pressure with Azores High throwing out a ridge to Iceland and a cold LP centre 1015mb over the Irish Sea on Thu 11th slipping slowly S-wards allowing HP across Scotland to form by Sun 14th, much as yesterday's forecast, but unlike yesterday giving way to trough from Iceland to France by Tue 16th. 

So, a total muddle, the models not agreeing with each other nor with their own previous runs. Never mind, it gives support to anyone who has their own preconception of what the weather ought to be doing

This is a classic Rossby wave amplitude problem, ie zonal vs meridional. The difference is the small trough than dips down the East coast midweek on the ECM, UKMO and GEM, and doesn’t appear on GFS or ICON (which is the best run this morning).

What triggers the difference? It seems to be the speed with which the deep low off Greenland moves East. On the two latter runs it is positioned between Greenland and Iceland on Wednesday morning, straightening the jet stream across the North Atlantic and keeping low pressure North. On the “bad” runs it stays East of Greenland allowing the blob to our North to sink down.

See differences in jet stream between ICON and ECM on Wed am: