If we had summers like 2018 and 2019 regularly for two decades, we would have moved into a totally different climate phase.  Although it almost feels like we are about to now, given the relentless warmth of the last twelve months.  I’m hoping for some sort of reset (see my guesses in the CET comp!) to our ‘normal’ weather or I fear snowless winters will be a regular feature in lowland England.

The seems a tiny bit overdramatic based on one model run in June, when there are still more than seven weeks of summer after the end of the run 

Still, nothing like a bit of bad news to get the punters clicking so I see why you posted it!

Current output looks changeable for the next week or so, heading into the beginning of July. It has shown that for a while now. Poor in comparison to the current spell, yes. Again, there are half-truths coming to the surface to suit agendas though...

Thereafter there are no clear signs either way. In fact, going by the GEFS there is a trend for drier conditions developing heading towards week 2 of July (edit: GFS 00z operational continues this trend). I agree with Rob - there are 7 weeks left of summer with the output showing one week of fairly unsettled and quite typical British summer weather. Hardly time to throw in the towel 

Oh, and it was one model run - the GFS 12z operational was quoted in the tweet that Rob was referencing.

Doesnt look too bad this morning higher pressure to the south could push north anytime so no need to write summer off again Moomin ...oh hang on you did that in May if i remember correctly.

 Bad is good. Good is good. Mediocre is bad.

Poor output this morning again ECM in particular is very unsettled especially for the north. So much heat to our south any southerly will be very hot but can we get a southerly.

I think the next 7 to 10 days or so after today's and tomorrow's heat look average to poor. But both the Beeb and met office long rangers are suggesting warm and hot settled weather to return second half of July. Now both the Beebs and Metos long range forecast have been really poor recently but hopefully they have this right.

Looks more like an east-west split than a north-south one.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20200705-0000z.html 

Yes. But November, so I was being fried as a foetus during that long Summer. Perhaps explains how I turned out with a few screws missing!

Same here. 15th November 1976.

ECM mean for 240hrs is pretty much the textbook mean pattern for British summer. Straight out of the Usborne school atlas:

Not sure what to make of this one given that the last 20 years includes 2003 (record breaker), July 2006 (hottest and sunniest month on record), July 2013 (top 10 July in last 300 years), 2018 (probably in the top 5 summers ever) and 2019 (record broken again, not a great summer overall though. That's without mentioning the 2015 July record, 90F recorded every month from June to September in 2016, etc. 2007-12 were very poor but the rest well above any historical benchmark bar the 90s

Yes I think there is no doubt that we will have to go through some "normal" British summer weather with some cool winds, cloud and a bit of rain but I certainly don't see any sign of 2007-style permatroughing setting up. The long-range forecasts (for what they are worth) from both the BBC and the Met talk about signals for high pressure to reassert itself towards the middle of July. Even during the "unsettled" spell we had last week it felt very pleasant for much of the time, with strong sunshine pushing temperatures up despite some fairly cool 850mb figures. There's plenty of heat to our south and I think it's pretty likely that we will tap into that at least once or twice before summer is out.

Perhaps it's just because I changed jobs and no longer spend so long commuting in the dark but I feel like I have already seen a lot more sun this year than in a typical summer, and it's still only June!

I’ll dig out the stats later. Summer months have lagged the overall warming and sunshine trends since the turn of the century. Contrast with the near continent which has seen most warming in summer.

And, without any cherry-picking, at least in the sense that I haven't time to look at GEM etc ...

Jetstream -the SW flow as of now fades and by Sat 27th a W-ly across the S of HK (with a tendency to loop back across Shetland) breaking up by Sat 4th with a mini-loop around the SE while the main stream takes itself well to the N.That loop spins off into Europe while the main flow comes south again across the UK Wed 8th and stays though rather weak to Sat 11th.

GFS - LP over UK tomorrow resolving itself into centre Shetland 995mb Mon 29th then slowly filling with N/NE source of air to Thu 2nd; broad ridge of HP establishing itself through to Sat 11th but with occasional small embedded LPs to keep the interest alive - each ca 1000 mb Sat 4th  Cornwall. Tue 7th Hebrides, and again Sat 11th

GEFS - temps generally dropping off a cliff this weekend e.g. for the S from  +8C  above to 5C below seasonal norm - irregular recovery and back on the warm side of norm by around Tue 7th.
Intermittent rain, in the S & W to Wales more than forecast yesterday and most likely first few days of July. In Scotland and NE England, big spikes still sowing esp in Borders Sat 27th, then quieter but with more rain later on than in the S

ECM - similar to GFS but more 'hang-back' of defined LP to Thu 2nd; and the establishment of HP is interrupted by the development of a slight trough over Cornwall on the 4th into a larger area of LP 995mb NE England Sun 5th

Not been religiously looking at the charts but GFS looks to have watered down () the rainfall amounts in then near term down here, but gives more chances of rain in the mid term. Arpege which I often use to get a general sense check of the GFS precip charts suggests some light showery stuff over the next few days, with Sat PM seeing the highest chance of something a bit heavier. Tomorrow looks disappointing at the moment with some light showers early up and maybe late in the day too but not much else and still warm to hot. The only thing I like about hot weather is when it breaks down with a bang but looks like that's unlikely this time.

The ECM accumulated precip from Michael shows the lack of rain in the extreme SE nicely, although as he's mentioned there's something of a general W/E split, suggesting weather systems lacking in oomph to me.

Given LP not too far away I reckon there's a decent chance of dragging some hot air up in the near future - a little ridge and/or the LP lifting off to the NE would be all it needs. We do seem to be able to tap in to very hot air much more readily over the last couple of summers, last year being a case in point, so another burst of heat like this week is likely IMO.

[quote=Chidog;1228999]

Not sure what to make of this one given that the last 20 years includes 2003 (record breaker), July 2006 (hottest and sunniest month on record), July 2013 (top 10 July in last 300 years), 2018 (probably in the top 5 summers ever) and 2019 (record broken again, not a great summer overall though. That's without mentioning the 2015 July record, 90F recorded every month from June to September in 2016, etc. 2007-12 were very poor but the rest well above any historical benchmark bar the 90s

[/quote

Yes totally since 2013  summers have really reached new levels in the UK where 30 degrees is now expected every year and happens with ease  whereas when I was growing up in the 60s 70s summer heatwaves were a rarity and lasted about 3 days before being washed away. When you consider that there wasn't one good summer by todays standards between 1959 and 1975.  But yes 2007 to 12 were pretty mediocre or downright awful so ce then the record speaks for itself so we are long overdue a cooler than average summe

Here are some stats as promised. What they show is that June has done fairly well (though less than most other months of the year except December and the other summer months), whilst July and August have generally been poor. The annual mean has warmed by much more than the summer months, and while the rest of the year has become much sunnier, July and August have actually got duller.

Junes since 2000: warmer, drier and sunnier than long term mean but by less than annual trends

• 18 out of 20 warmer than average. Mean of all years 14.5C, which is 1.0C above 1971-00 mean


• 13 out of 20 drier than average. Across all years, mean rainfall 67mm, which is a little wetter than the 1971-00 mean


• 14 out of 20 sunnier than average. mean of 194hrs vs 178 1971-00 mean

Julys since 2000: marginally warmer, but much wetter than long term mean, average sunshine

• 13 out of 20 warmer than average. Across all years 16.4C which is 0.55C above 1971-00


• 16 out of 20 were WETTER than average. Across all years 78mm vs 55mm mean


• 15 out of 20 DULLER than average, although across all years 195 hrs vs 192 hrs LTA. Big divergence between exceptionally sunny Julys in 06, 13, 14, 18 and other years, nothing much in between. 2003 was duller than average

Augusts since 2000: marginally warmer, but wetter and duller than mean

• 14 out of 20 warmer than average. Across all years 16.1 vs 15.71, 0.4C above 1971-00


• 12 out of 20 wetter than average. Across all years 81.5 vs 69.85 LTA


• 12 out of 20 duller than average. Across all years 172hrs vs 182hrs LTA

What we haven't had, 2005 (and perhaps 2019 aside) is many reasonably good but not exceptional summers. Lots of dross, and a few exceptionally hot and sunny ones.

Drill further in the data as I do in my summer index calcs, and a NW-SE split is apparent too. It's been relatively much worse compared to normal in the North and West (particularly the West) than in the S and E (particularly the far SE - Kent and E Anglia).

I realise this probably belongs in a different thread. Might paste it into the moaning one. Not so much a moan, as a counterpoint to anyone saying we are overdue a poor summer. We are most certainly not.

Yes that’s what I thought too. A trend toward settled and warm after a cooler first week in July. 
Moom’s monthly write-off about to go moobs-up methinks. 

It’s the positioning of the Icelandic low that’s encouraging, as well as the collapsing of the big high pressure over NE Canada. Pressure sinking around Greenland. That means once any lows over Europe fade away there’s more space for a ridge to build.