Yes decent ECM out to day 9 never really gets unsettled for the South at least.

Met Office seasonal mean been updated: - Takes us into start of the winter

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Jetstream coming and going in short bursts across the UK  for a week or so, but a more definite and stronger trend across or close to S of UK from Fri 24th for the week thereafter. That promises a continued unsettled spell, damp and cool from the Atlantic

GFS has won the immediate battle with ECM to be the form horse with HP reaching towards the UK but not quite enough to stop W/NW influence. This pattern persists to about Fri 24th with some promising days mixed with collapses. Then a general drop in pressure with LP established over UK by Tue 28th, pushing the ridge of HP south so that France gets the sort of weak HP that we' currently have

GEFS A little warmth around Sat 18th, but after that fairly good agreement on temps a little below seasonal norm throughout. Not much rain, and that mostly later on (after Mon 27th) and towards the N.

ECM has similar pattern to GFS but with pressure somewhat higher and thus better chances for good weather in the south

FAX and BBC have a trailing front which could spoil any HP by importing cloud from the Atlantic rather unpredictably.

GFS goes for a large-scale trough parking itself over us by the last week of the month. Disappointing.

The ensembles have been particularly useless - several times there has been tight agreement on a particular scenario for a week or 10 days, only for the entire set to crash a run or two later.

The EFFIS Long-term monthly forecast of temperature and rainfall anomalies look very disappointing for the rest of July and August. lets hope it is incorrect

Also some decent long range output, and in the reliable, pretty decent.

Clearly no heatwave, but decent British summer weather for many in the mid range at least.

indeed, but those maps are too low-resolution to show the tiny but deep dartboard low permanently stationed over the Vale of Belvoir, where it resides from April to October. 

It's all very unremarkable some warmth ,some cooler days fairly dry all very boring tbh. Hopefully a heatwave is round the corner but zero sign at the moment.

Quite an 80's feeling summer at the moment. No heatwaves but certainly no wash out with nights generally cool enough to sleep through comfortably.

A fairly useable period of weather coming up.

I suspect there will be many days where early morning sunshine falls prey to convective infill, mainly dry though.

Here in the far SE I'm hopeful that the offshore NW'ly will bring some of the warmest temperatures on offer throughout the UK.

I'm perfectly happy without the heat and humidity personally. Low to mid 20s will do very nicely, with a little but not too much rain accompanying it.

12z ECM / ENS look poor to me in the longer term.

Yup. Off on a bike tour from Monday for a few days. 

Looks just about perfect down here for cycling. 

charts please ? 😉

A look at the 10-dayer shows summer on hold, not just for us but cool, not to say cold in week 2, across Europe generally - for above-average heat go further afield, to N Africa or W Asia. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 UK continues dry except the NW.

GFS continues to show ridge of HP from the SW, sometimes reaching the UK for some fine days, but from time to time pushed back by LP over Scandi bringing in N-lies (this same pattern is what's making Europe cool) through to Tue 28th. At end of run a general drop in pressure over N Atlantic bringing cool NW-lies (less of a definite LP circulation than yesterday)

GEFS brief spell of warmth then cool by Mon 20th slowly rising to seasonal norm around Thu 23rd. Rain possible at end of run (but that's always true and seems to work on the 'jam tomorrow' principle). East Amglia gets a rainfall spike on Sun 19th???

ECM similar to GFS though HP is broader than a 'ridge' and just for this weekend extends further E into the Baltic before thinking better of it.

Fax shows fronts moving S through the HP area this weekend so could be quite cloudy esp in the E

BBC last night had the HP area further S next week with some quite heavy rain coming in from the W esp for the Highlands 

Indeed - I've more or less written July off now as someone who likes hot weather.

The saving grace in the south is that there should be more usable conditions, as recently, due to hints of higher pressure and some protection from the Atlantic

Those of you who think a) we've had the hottest day of the year b) summer will be cooler than 30 year average will be licking your chops at the sight of the overnight probability forecasts. Half way through the season & you're still in the game. Unusual. https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/1miK9SBt76

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) July 15, 2020

Great UKMO 12z this afternoon Azores high builds in right over the UK. GFS on the other hand is grim with a cool northerly at the same point.

Hmmm - look at that and you miss the smaller picture. Summer's not on hold tomorrow, that's for sure! From the Met Office forecast for the SE for tomorrow:

It will be fine and dry, with bright or sunny spells for many. Feeling warm or locally very warm in the sunshine, with light winds. Maximum temperature 28 °C.

Well, that's the difference between a 10-day average and a local one-day special. Go down to the south coast and 23C is all that's on offer. I'm not complaining, 23C and sunshine is my idea of an ideal summer day.

Jetstream continues to flirt with the UK until Thu 23rd. After a brief break it the resumes S of the UK and eventually  it moves back N to cross the UK again

GFS continues the idea of HP reaching towards us from the Azores for another week with some nice days but never really establishing itself. Shallow LP then appears over the S of Britain Sat 25th and then another centre over N Britain later that week before ( a long way ahead) the ridge is back on Sat 1st. No sign of the previous controlling LP in mid-Atlantic, the LP over the N is much weaker.

GEFS  From present reasonable warmth to cool by Sun 19th (with some rain in the SE! see FAX for waving cold front taking its time to clear) gradually back to normal or a little below from Thu 23rd. Quite a lot of variation between runs later on. A better chance of significant rain after this date than shown yesterday

ECM has the LP on the 25th developing over the NW but similar to GFS up to that point

All gone quiet? I'm not surprised, the 10-day outlook promises more of the same, W Europe all with temps below average for the first half of the period and if anything a bit lower for the second half. The UK as usual in Atlantic-dominated situation shows a gradation from acceptable temps in the SE to definitely cool in the NW. Dry for the first part, then what looks like a fair amount of convective rain throughout the UK (and the S could do with it)

GFS Some tentative HP across the S with W-lies further N until Sat 25th when cool LP moves in from the NW and becomes centred over the SE (even a little patch of sub-552 dam on Sun for London) and then another LP from the Atlantic to Scottish borders by Wed 29th. No strong circulation but could certainly account for the convective rain mentioned above. Finally Sun 2nd we're back to HP nosing in from the Azores again. Very much confirms yesterday's charts.

GEFS also much the same as yesterday - refer to my post above

ECM continues to show a difference from GFS in respect of the breakdown on Sat 25th staying further to the N - Scotland gets a large area of sub-552 - and at the end of the run  the HP in the S and W-lies further north resume quickly, though there is a LP out on the Atlantic which could easily move in later

Everyone will have their own view. Two words sum it up for me: Mediocre. Poor.

Two very politely put words Brian.