I’m quite sure you can navigate the site to find your IMBY information for the south east, you've been on here long enough now. 
watch for those pot holes, you’ll find they are nationwide 

Not quite 'model' related but take a look at the latest QBO? confused.com 

Does anyone think this easterly QBO will fail?

Jetstream still weak but picking up strongly across or just S of the UK by Sat 25th then forming a loop by Wed 29th with the uk on the 'wrong' side. Soon back to a W-ly again just S of the UK though less strong, and winding itself into another loop Fri 7th (though for the optimists, that loop has a strong southerly component and could bring up warmth from Spain)

GFS - current ridge slowly collapsing and LP trough covering UK Sun 26th; another ridge forms W of Ireland mid week (Wed 29th) but gives way to another Atlantic trough Sun 2nd; which amalgamates with more Atlantic troughs and develops into a well defined LP in the SW approaches  Fri 7th (and again for the optimists, if the centre of that LP turns out 100 miles further W than forecast, we will get a heat wave -and for the pessimists, if it's 100 miles further E then the the weekend is a washout!)

GEFS temps at or below seasonal norm throughout, coolest periods around Wed 29th and Mon 3rd and a lot of variation toward end of run. Small amounts of rain at any time in the S from Sat 25th onward, larger amounts more frequently the further N you go.

ECM similar to GFS to ca Wed 29th but the ridge then intensifies and moves E and is over the UK Fri 31st with quite a deep LP off SW Ireland and S-ly winds well established

And sure enough the 06Z so far has high pressure more in evidence across the south than the unsettled 0Z Gfs

But interestingly run 7 of the GEFS 0Z, which has blowtorch 20C+ 850s, only gives 2m max temps of around 25-26C! Reminds me of the spell last summer when near-record high 850s gave notably unremarkable maxima. 

Blowtorch 850Hpa's stand for nothing when you have the jet stream firing away so close to the UK. Such spikes are normally associated with intense rainmakers and should be viewed upon for observations purposes only rather than T2M indicators. 

Yeah, our biggest problem is they we're always on that borderline. Our geographical location is pretty pants for settled or consistent conditions

In recent years the south east of the UK (and at times more widely) has found itself inside the west European heat dome. As far as I can see the problem this year is that it hasn't really developed. I think Cohen's latest blog suggests that summer in much of Europe has been cooler than average so far.  

There are some indications of warmer weather edging north into France if you look at the 10 day temperature forecasts.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Not sure if it will be temporary, but if it continues then the chances of brief hot incursions into the southern UK at least would increase. 

10-dayer not offering much change in temps  from the present setup. Perhaps a bit more rain in the S later.

GFS this morning - broad area of LP from Sun 26th for a couple of days. Ridge in Atlantic Wed 29th toppling as new LP establishes Sat 1st and deepens Mon 3rd. Eventually another ridge Sat 8th. The forecast isn't stable for more than a week or so; it looks rather different to yesterday.

GEFS temps down ca Sun 26th & Wed 29th; up in between those dates(not Scotland) & again Sat 1st after which lots of variation at or a bit below seasonal norm. Chances of rain at any time especially Wed 29th in S, Sat 25th in Scotland.

ECM has deeper LP off W coast (GFS has it shallower and off to the NW) Sat 1st fetching in lots of warmth and (briefly) HP - looks like the traditional 3 fine days and a thunderstorm

Some rain chances at the weekend and up to midweek for the parched south. Yes a brief plume looking a possibility as a low stalls at month end but little change in the overall pattern

I will be in Glenridding from 1st August for a week, any lingering hope I had for an improvement to warm and dry (settled) weather for that period has now disappeared. looks like the overall pattern is here for a while longer yet.

In this S.E corner I wouldn't say that was the case. Here in S.Essex we have had only three rainfall events over 10mm since March. It has been exceptionally dry. Whilst the hot spells haven't been prolonged the background warmth has and if you take an "average" sort of day like today the temperature soon shot up to 26C as soon as the sun was out. I don't have the sunshine hours but am pretty sure they are above average.

Absolutely right. 

This has been a ‘decent‘* summer so far for the SE east of the Chiltern Hills - a very different experience to those west and north of the higher elevations.

It’s worth remembering that something like 20 million people live south of the Wash and east of the Chilterns - a third of the UK population and more than the populations of Scotland, NI and the north of England combined. 

It seems odd to cry “IMBY” as if the SE is some sort of hyper-local microclimate. 

It isn’t. It just has a notably different climate to points north and west.

(*if you like endless days of near drought - good for doing stuff, not so good for the gardens) 

Good old classic summer herr

Jetstream continues across UK to Thu 30th  though weakening; resumes over France Sun 2nd and slowly moves N again to cover UK through to Sun 9th though at end of this period more of a S/SW than W flow.

GFS - various LP centres moving across UK (notably Mon 27th, Sun 2nd, Fri 7th) with brief weak ridges of HP between (weaker than shown yesterday) - just a glimmer of hope in the final frame on Sun 9th with the last LP in the sequence much shallower, a general rise in pressure and  air from the S, not the N.

GEFS -Much more marked variation in temps than previously with some big swings in the S - cool Wed 29th, and Mon 4th, warm (very warm op & control +%C above norm) Sat 1st and again Fri 7th though still quite a lot of just below norm runs. A couple of early episodes of rain then back to drought. N England shows similar temp variation but with more rain esp around Sat 1st; Scotland gets the rain and a flattened temp profile.

ECM slow to load this morning; 0z run initially similar to GFS, valid to Wed 29th; but then yesterdays 12z retains the LP off the SW Fri 31st with strong S-ly & v warm, as previously, declining to zonal w-lies by Sun 2nd

Thanks. It’s good and helpful to get a nice overall summary of things. 

It continues to look rather mobile overall. 

Standard - but next weekend has a look of "thundery" about it 

I spy with my little eye something beginning with p.

Precipitation? 

Plumage

GFS this morning produces a good summery run with it not cooling off after the push of warm air next Friday. At the top of the ensembles though. ECM also very different and reverts to the cooler westerlies we become familiar with.

Indeed lovely plumage . 

ECM gets very close to bringing 20c 850s this morning.