Very nice ECM this morning for Summer fans. Warm and settled for most of the run. Heatwave potential by the end.

GEM similar to ECM. My money is on the European model.

A fine and warm spell  in September is one of the closest things to a banker in the current era of UK weather. Doesn't always happen of course and last year was nothing special from recollection. 

Just briefly:

Jetstream dancing around the Atlantic in fantastic loops, never far away from Uk - just a brief straight blast from the W for us around Wed 9th

GFS Current ridge of HP gives way to SW-lies but pressure sinks on the Atlantic and a controlling depression establishes N of Scotland Mon 7th and bits of it flake off first over the N Sea then over S England Mon 14th

GEFS Cool now, in the S warm Fri 4th then mean close to norm but with wide variability,not much rain though a few runs have big spikes later on. In Scotland the warm patch is followed by an agreed cool spell Sun 6th before the variability sets in. No big totals of rain but  more continual from Thu 3rd

ECM builds HP to become intense by Mon 7th, big contrast with GFS

I'm confused. One minute I'm hearing talk of an upcoming fine, warm spell and now flooding!

Yes. it seems that central belt found all the showers and streamers. Of course still very dry ground here but at least we had some decent rain in last couple of days and the first day with a max under 20C for six weeks!

Current set up would be a nice one here in early February. 

... and this morning ...

GFS - after brief ridge of HP, the Atlantic serves up LP moving across mainly affecting the north until Mon 7th when Hp makes a half-hearted appearance, only to be replaced by LP from the N Sat 12th

GEFS - cool for a few days, briefly warm ca Thu 3rd, cool again for a few days after which extremely wide spread, mean of runs above norm but op and control going in different directions, Rain around the 3rd, otherwise mostly dry with some bits and pieces showing up in 10 days' time. S and N similar though rain in N starts a bit earlier.

ECM - makes much more of the HP on and after Mon 7th, indeed shows it being pushed to the UK by what looks like a TS which in turn is moving towards Iberia. GFS doesn't show this TS (unless it's been swallowed by a depression off Newfoundland)

16-dayer goes for cool but puts the rain over C Europe

First snowfalls of the season just (only just) showing over mountains in E Siberia  (the Himalayas have had a sprinkling throughout)
https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

I read "Think we could see flooding from second week of September- north and west look most at risk"

Seeing as we are not even in September yet, definitely the suggestion of more than a second in there.   

First week of September has some snow forecast in E Iceland in the NA ppn type forecast.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Looking fairly typical in the mid term. After the excitement of August I wonder if September will be very ordinary.

Nothing wrong with ordinary, other than this thread will be like a ghost town. 

[quote=Brian Gaze;1250726]

Looking fairly typical in the mid term. After the excitement of August I wonder if September will be very ordinary.

Looks like dry could be the word by the end of the month....be interesting to see how 

On the records the extreme south east has been....been like the Kalmuk steppe on more than one occasion this spring summer could be one more go before the October rains arrive.

HUGE High over NW Russia doing us no favours, As bad as Northern Blocking. Although this pattern over winter would produce cold wind flows

The new season is up and running.

The 00z GEFS for London are looking pretty dry for the next 10 days.  That isn't going to make up for the shortage of rainfall in this small corner of the country.

Busy morning, but here goes:

Jetstream still looping around but not so extravagantly as yesterday and generally closer to UK. One particularly long and strong blast from the W , turning SW, Fri 11th 

GFS - current ridge of Hp toppling and converting to W-lies with troughs Wed 9th and Fri 11th, the latter with severe(?) gales. HP arising to E of UK with warm S-lies Tue 15th but may get pushed aside by LP lurking on the Atlantic

GEFS - Temps down now and 6th Sep, up 4th and 9th Sep, after which uncertainty (the op is 10C above mean on 16th Sep and the control 5C below!). Bits of rain around, not much in S and best chances a couple of days either side of Mon 13th; Scotland gets an extra burst on Thu 3rd.

ECM - keeps the W-lies of the GFS further north and sets up a strong and persistent HP from Mon 7th

The general set-ups shown by ECM and GFS aren't that dissimilar; just that GFS gives more potency to the low yo our north (more TS influence?) 

16-dayer still looking cool with a NW/SE split accentuating this. Even a little blue blob over Iceland in week 2 (i.e. average day-night temp below zero).Rain in NW week 1, quite a lot everywhere week 2. Not sure whether this takes the effect of potential TS Nana emerging onto the Atlantic as (I think) this display is based on GFS whihc is ignoring Nana.

GFS - LP brushing the N this week, resolving into W-lies by Sat 5th and continuing with HP becoming dominant over the S to Thu 10th but then downhill with cold LP moving in from the N and intensifying over the N Sea 975mb Sun 13th, replaced by another deep LP over Hebrides  980mb Wed 16th. But a caveat as above  that NHC is forecasting TS Nana to be well out into the Atlantic by Sat 5th and (if its the same storm) the only reflection of this in GFS is an LP well inland over Newfoundland.

GEFS - Temps much as yesterday's forecast - up Fri 4th, down Sun 6th, up Wed 9th then anything could happen. Rain in S around Fri 4th and after Fri 11th. Scottish profile similar, a bit more rain before 11th. In both cases less rain than shown on 16-dayer.

ECM - Similar to GFS but pressure generally a bit higher than GFS. It does have a very, very small circulation loop when TS Nana might be on Sat but that's vanished by Sun.

Jetstream weak westerly at first, switchung to stronger from N Sun 6th and then v. strong over or just to N of Scotland Tue 8th before g12th oing S-wards again , still strong, Sat 12th, and finally breaking up into a loop just W of UK on Fri 18th.

GFS - generally westerly this week but strong HP centre coming in from W Tue 8th before pushed aside by cold LP from N Sat 12th deepening over Scottish border 980 mb; slack pressure until Lp approaches Ireland from W Fri 18th

GEFS - Temps see post above. Less rain around, very little until ca Sun 13th when some in S, rather more in N.

ECM sort of similar to GFS but the HP of the 8th is held further S and the LP of Sat 12th further N, so overall more of  a westerly regime.

Hullo! Anyone else at home?

GFS - Westerly for a few days with fronts crossing the UK but HP well established on Tue 8th; however back to W-lies Fri 11th resolving into deep LP 975mb  N Ireland Sun 13th which doesn't really clear as it moves NE leaving small LP centres around (and something deeper off Norway 975mb Wed 16th). Then back to W-ly pattern, with interestingly a powerful hurricane off New England coast Sat 19th, 970mb if I can count the closely spaced isobars. This could be a long range warning of the one now developing off Africa - see Hurricane thread.

GEFS - cool ca Sun 6th, back to above normal from Wed 9th and agreement on that for a few days before runs diverge very widely. Little prospect of significant rain in S, slightly more in N after Fri 11th.

ECM - NW-ly for a few days, HP in charge from Mon 7th though moving S-wards compared to GFS leaving in Scotalnd in W-lies. LP drifts past Shetland Fri 11th 985mb leaving N-ly flow while HP sets up W of Ireland Mon 13th. Rather at odds with GFS.