So is the purple line a new thing and I should follow that on the graph!?

This CFS 12z runs for next January going from 22nd September back to 16th September

What is the point of these CFS charts? They have little value, IMO, so why are they available? 

If it's snow you want tally then the highest hill's of Northumberland ate forecast for snow over the weekend. Or you could head to the Highlands where again snow is on the cards for the highest hill top's.

All just for fun of course - it would happen as we head into the start of Spring!?

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=3774&mode=0&carte=0&run=1

Worth a read:

https://mkweather.com/2020/07/29/first-forecast-for-winter-2020-21-early-powerful-coldwaves-nov-dec-then-weakening-of-cold-pattern-and-warm-jan-feb-mar/

If this comes about then we expect a cold and wintry start to winter before things gradually turn more mild and westerly as the QBO comes easterly along with a +AO and +NAO.


Do you know much about this long range weather forecaster/researcher Marek Kučera!?

That’s for the US. Apparently the opposite is expected for Europe.

Mind you, going by the grammar and spelling, long range accuracy is the least of his problems.

J F F F 

Just For Festive Fun

50 years since the last proper White Christmas down here (albeit since then there has been snow from previous days on the ground twice, and a flake or two falling twice as well).

That chart would bring an end to the dismal run, but I won't be betting my life savings on it coming off!

The ultimate irony of being lock downed anyway during a bitter winter

50 years ago there was a global flu pandemic - a rather serious one at that.

Wonder what the odds are of a serious winter paralysing the UK forcing everyone inside thus stopping the spread of COVID?

With October on the horizon the first real chances of snow are within reach.

I think in October 2008 saw some snow in London.

I really want a cold winter this year. I’m fascinated to know how my new location may perform.

Marcus: very much looking forward to the first episode JFF.

Darren: I’m still waiting for the first proper white Christmas in my lifetime. 38 years and counting.

Not enough to count if it were an official observation, but there was a small patch left on the lawn (the thaw set in on the 21st, melting the 9cm of snow cover over two days.) There was plenty of rain and it had been mostly above freezing since then. Christmas Day 2010 was, by the narrowest of margins, an ice day here, so there was that at least.

The 1970 snowfall, incidentally, is before my time. I'm soon to be 41 and haven't seen what I consider a proper white Christmas (snow falling, snow settling on the ground) in my lifetime. I would like to see one before I die, but I'm not holding my breath!

A perpetual annoyance to those living south of the M4 or thereabouts is the insistence of Northerners (the North begins at Watford!) that 2010/11 was a superbly snowy year. Here on the South Coast we did indeed have a decent snowfall for once, in Dec 2010 - it lasted all of three days before thawing.

The same here at least in this part of Dorset. For me it was the first and only time I've ever seen snow on the ground on Christmas Day several inches crisp and even too. A beautiful day with bright winter sunshine. Though if I'd put a bet on a white Christmas back then the bookies would have won as the snow has to FALL on that day apparently. But for me that was a proper white Christmas and the only one I've seen.

What makes you think that?

But yes a cold winter will come about eventually!? Surely!? One is well over due if not a colder than average winter month is due - surely?

Even the winter of 2017/18 was not really colder than average it was -0.2 the CET and the cold really came (as we all remember) towards the end of February.

Otherwise the winter as a whole would have been above average. Our last colder than average winter was 2008/09 2009/2010 For the exception of December 2010 the last proper colder than average winter was 2012/13. Since then we have had nothing but zonal mild westerly, damp dross!

What is conflicting is that we could be having a strong La Nina now according to the CFS model for ENSO region and we may not be going into an Easterly QBO - so this decreases our chances of a cold winter but then again the IOD is in it's negative phase, Arctic sea ice has melted to near record minimum and we are coming out of solar minimum - So this could increase our chances of a more blocked and colder winter but then we have the above caveats!? The majority of long range models show milder than average conditions throughout many parts of the northern Hemisphere this winter and I do wonder if this is a response to the strong La Nina in ENSO region? What do you think?

In July the CFS forecast the La Nina was forecast to remain weak, in August some ENS members took it down to borderline moderate LA Nina and most recently the models are showing a strong La Nina - so this goes against a cold winter!? - Same for strong El Nino. Like in 2015/16. But maybe the strength of this La Nina- beit strong if this continues could be a good thing as it will cool down the SST's in the NE Pacific which is what we all need. The Pacific ocean is warm the the SST's cooling rapidly at the ENSO region will eventually cool down other parts of the pacific like a thermostat.

We all know that recent winters we have seen huge ridge/block off south coast of Alaska and western coast of Canada develop over this warm area of SST's and this has brought brutally cold weather into Canada and N. America  - then the low pressure systems have swept eastwards across the USA and then blasted up the jet to give us persistent zonal weather/cyclogenisis or Atlantic onslaught as Gavin P would usually describe it as.      

The Met Office are having a laugh with this chart.

I do recall that in Dec 2010 many people were raving about what a wintry month it was it but in my location ( Cam valley in South Cambridgeshire) I recall it as being virtually snowless.

On days when there is snow falling or snow lying I normally make a point of getting outside and taking a photo of it.

From that month I have photos of snow lying on just two days.

12 to 16 days? No chance!

[quote=Retron;1260271]

Not enough to count if it were an official observation, but there was a small patch left on the lawn (the thaw set in on the 21st, melting the 9cm of snow cover over two days.) There was plenty of rain and it had been mostly above freezing since then. Christmas Day 2010 was, by the narrowest of margins, an ice day here, so there was that at least.

The 1970 snowfall, incidentally, is before my time. I'm soon to be 41 and haven't seen what I consider a proper white Christmas (snow falling, snow settling on the ground) in my lifetime. I would like to see one before I die, but I'm not holding my breath!

I lived in Sittingbourne and remember the snow of 1970 very well. I am an old git of 65. If I remember it started Christmas eve

Seems a hit & miss thing, DEW. The post after yours describes their Dorset back yard that year as having a Xmas Day with "several inches crisp and even too"

I'm a tad north of Watford and that December was a fraught time because areas to the north, south, east and west of us had got snow, often very deep snow, during the cold spell, but we had been bone dry (a couple of times a front or feature was showing on the MO up until 48 hours away, then would disappear or divert away). When the MO began to show a weak front moving toward us from the W/NW for around the 17th, I watched with expectation of disappointment, but it firmed up and by the morning of 17th, we were forecast 1-2cm. I'd have been happy with that (we had about 10cm of lying snow the previous Xmas, too!) after the disappointment up until then. But it was a better fall, and lasted beyond Xmas.

Was born in 1972 so also missed Dec 70. I do remember the snow on the ground in Dec 81, but I don't think it snowed on the actual day. There was a year in the mid-/late-90's when it snowed in the early hours of Xmas Day morning. Went to bed clear; woke up with about half a cm covering, which had froze; clear deep blue sky, too. Wondrous.

Dec 2004 saw frequent heavy showers of graupel and flake, putting down about 3cm (that froze, too). Dec 09 had snow on the ground from a lot of showers that started the weekend before and continued through the week, snow-on-snow! Was about 10cm by Xmas Day and I think we got a few flurries on the day itself. In Dec 10 we had deep snow lying but none fell. We also had an unexpected Boxing Day fall in 2014 that was heavy for a time before turning to rain.

Not done too bad - but we never seem to get the mega-falls at any time. Don't think we've ever reached 30cm level snow in my 48 years, whereas you can relate your tale of helicopter food-drops and snow as deep as the hedges.

I'm with you Mark , I know I haven't made enough of heavy snowfall in recent years and yes a white Xmas would be great for all