Front loaded... rear ended...

Looks like a fairly strong La Nina to me. I thought that the experts believe Europe gets severe weather during neutral Enso to weak La Nina events.

Brian? - could you send me link to ECM Nov/Dec seasonal model?

thanks 

I posted this on the Model Output thread yesterday but it's also worth posting here. An early look at the likely effects of La Nina across Europe and North America this winter ...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-season-2020-2021-lanina-early-look-fa/

Interesting:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/polar-vortex-formation-winter-2020-2021-fa/

"Without a stratospheric warming event, a La Nina winter can generally be milder in Europe and the United States. The same goes for the west QBO, individually. But combined, they have already produced quite cold winters in the past. This is why the state of the stratospheric polar vortex is important, as well as the phase of the QBO.

Current signals show the potential for a stratospheric warming event in mid-winter, based on current parameters. A lot depends on the positioning of the massive high and low-pressure systems in the North Pacific."

All CFS/ENS show weakened zonal winds throughout rest of October, whole of November even into December:

That's good to see Tally , though only a forecast .

Certainly helps our chances 

JFF

Think I'd take these 

And now December looks like this , shows it really is a laugh

And January is just a dream

Encouraging signs to see several easterly outbreaks on CFS long range given last winter we saw ZERO! - of course this is all JFF:

On model one run all JFF of course!

 The ECM going free has resulted in a treaure trove of charts - all their ensemble data, for example, now yours for the taking.

Talking of which, here's the 10hPa zonal speed forecast:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202010080000

Encouraging, I think, to see the mean is well below the LTA and there's a significant amount of spaghetti below the 10th percentile (and virtually none above the 90th).

The unlocking of a raft of ECM data is welcome, if only to see how it can exacerbate the confusion and befuddlement AKA the annual circus AKA Winter on TWO MO.

If that’s too many abbreviations for you, you won’t survive the next four months 😂😷

18z CFSv2 from yesterday gives us a pre Xmas tease 

Keeps it going on Xmas day

Would be a white one for some

Followed soon after by an Easterly

Oh Dear, O dear, Oh Dear!! Big flip from northern Blocking to mid latitude blocking over central and south western Europe to give us milder winds for November and December!! I do wonder if this sudden flip is a result of the CFS long range model going for a strong super La Nina for this winter 20/21 with some temperatures in the ENSO region to go down to -2.5c below average with some ENS!? What do you think?

Let the bi-polar begin.

@ Tally - I wouldn't worry too much , just ................yet , these charts changed every single run doing a complete U turn

JFF Be nice to see this if only for a day or so 

Before you know who comes knocking 

Before the East has another go on Xmas Day 

Thanks Marcus, could you send me link to above please? - I have this link you sent - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&mode=8&carte=0&run=10

I have found this...?

JFF - CFS does like the blocking scenario 

The forecast for the strength of the zonal winds at 10hp are indicative of a negative AO/NAO: - Looks set to last throughout the rest of October all of November and into December as well. - Even with the CFS bias corrected!

http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie_cfsRawCorrGefs.png

The fact the AO/NAO is negative and the strength of zonal winds at 10hpa over Arctic remain weaker on both the CFS Bias corrected and and the CFS for the next two months! - Of course things may change - perhaps like last year on the first day of winter (1st December) the zonal winds will go positive as well the AO and NAO and we could have the Polar vortex of doom - i hope not but it's usually the case and I remember after the cooler snap early December during winter 2019 Brian said something like 'this could well be the last/only cold snap of the winter' - when winter was only days old and I thought he was having a laugh but he was right! However below looks promising doesn't it? It's not unusual to get snow in October or November...!? So who knows...?

Think you are right blocked October's seem to occur regularly frequently .

There is always some hope to grab onto each year , one factor which might be beneficial but whether it makes a difference given how many factors are at play who knows.

This year isn't it Easterly QBO and coming out of a solar minimum? 

Yes that's the other issue is that we are not in an easterly QBO and by now we should be in a mature easterly QBO:

An Easterly QBO guarantees us nothing , I am more interested in the Zonal wind forecast , if that's weak then we have half a chance  , even if from cold NWlies  

Obviously its just a forecast and doesn't mean it will come off 

That would do me as we approached December 

Coming as a susprise to nobody, I expect, the ECM has been busy backtracking on its forecast of a sustained weaker-than-normal vortex to end the autumn. It's now pretty much dead on average throughout... what are the odds of it going generally above average in the next update, I wonder?

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202010150000

(Use the dropdown top left to see previous forecasts)