Not sure where this will fit in in terms of topic but it's related to winter' - there has been a rapid increase in snowcover over past week over perhaps 2/3 of Russia/Siberia and into Scandinavia!

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

CFS has flipped cold for November:

If you're using the NCEP suite I would pay more attention to the GEFS35.

Thanks Brian - Could you send me the link to this above 850hpa 35 day chart?

Oh Dear - The CFS monthly today:

November - Mild damp and zonal!

December:

Warm and wet - again very zonal!

January: - Warm and dry!

Just click on the N hemisphere button to see a list of the available charts.

I may add some more soon but TBH I'm not sure how much value the CFS adds (on TWO or any other website TBH)

Thanks! 

It's in from AccuWeather (Winter 2020/21 forecast for Europe!) - It's vague from AccuWeather re temperatures but from my understanding a drier winter is on the cards for many northern and western parts of Europe:

Does Infrequent Storms over Scandinavia an indication of blocking there?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2020-2021-europe-winter-forecast/834961

This is interesting re southern Europe and stormier conditions there and not HP to our south..

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“Having a southern storm track at times throughout the winter months will be beneficial for Spain and Portugal as the winter months make up their wet season and help to replenish the reservoirs for the rest of the year,” Roys said.

A month early for my liking from CFS 

Really odd that nobody is looking at the ECM charts instead of that CFS stuff!

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202010220000

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202010220000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202012070000

The latter link is the weekly temperature anomaly forecasts out to December. Close to or slightly below average then, as winter starts, average to above average for England at least. Not very exciting TBH, but worth keeping an eye on.

On one of Gavs longer range look at the models , CFS had November being Atlantic dominated and not having any blocking , this is the 2nd run on the trot the model shows a HP around our shores

I don't know why people spend so much time with it either. If people want to use the NCEP suite the GEFS35 is now a better option.

Do ECM have weekly 850hPa temp anomalies? I had a quick look and couldn't find anything.

I'd like to compare them with the GEFS ones (weekly selection here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx) because I have reservations about the 2m anomaly plots.

Indeed, the default these days seems to be a big frosty cold tease in November, to be followed by 3 months of westerlies.

Ive no reason to suspect this year will be any different.

Because you can actually use the comment of Just For Fun at it and it throws up some eye candy charts that are few and far between , its a " look at what you could have won " model 

The links Darren provided are very good , I wouldn't have had a clue where to find them 

Thank you Darren 

Our time will come , I am convinced of that 

Here you go - they only plot them for selected locations. Reading is one of them:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_plumes?base_time=202010220000&city=Reading

EDIT: Doesn't look too dissimilar, especially in the short range. Bear in mind ECM only updates on Thursdays and Mondays, so the ECM charts are a bit out of date already!

EDIT 2:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202010220000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202011020000

Click a spot on the map there and you'll get the 2M temp plumes from the weekly forecast.

There are some undocumented ones too.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202010250000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202010250000

Click on the map and you'll get a meteogram for the location you clicked!

(That was the "holy grail" of charts back when ECMWF used to pick one at random as a freebie!)

Cheers for that Darren 

 The only thing I would conclude from the ECM and GEFS extended range forecasts is that things look fairly normal. It will be interesting to see if one or both pick up on a cold / very cold period at 30 days.  (GEFS is about 24 hours out of date when the update finishes)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx?loc=Reading

The nearest available 'grid point' from me is just 3 km away. Very useful, and almost renders the use of the actual maps almost useless, except maybe for quick 'at a glance' bigger picture. 

The 80's were superb here , did so well .

1991 stands out and does 2010 and a few after and of course the Beast from The East a few years ago.

Banbury seems to do ok from the West ( due to a breakdown ) and we are far enough South East to benefit also from the continent .

BUT from a straight Northerly , a waste of  time 

I will never understand how December 2010 could have been the coldest December in the Met Office record by over a whole degree celcius, yet I seem to be the only person in the whole of Britain who was out there day after day revelling in the weeks of unprecedented cold, snow and ice which that statistic implies.

No one alive had been blessed with a December anything like that. Even the one December slightly colder in the CET record came long after Dickens' death, so even the man himself never experienced a Dickensian December remotely as cold as the one this country did just a decade ago.

But, you know. Global warming, our climate's heated up beyond redemption, and all that.

If I recall correctly we had one significant fall of snow here in December 2010. The period mid Dec 2009 to mid Jan 2010 was far better with 3 big snow events. The truth is that in my locality December 2010 was statistically notable for the cold but nothing else. 

Probably the same one as here.

18th December 2010 - short but heavy snow Saturday lunctime for about 2 hours and the only time London has had a red SWW from the Met Office to my knowledge. Icing on the cake for a memorable bitterly cold month