There are a number of names out there. Some write good pieces which puts them ‘above the rest’, but I am sure in all cases they have been shot down by the weather which made fools out of them.

35 dayers continue to look chilly.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx?loc=London

The snow is still east of the Urals.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Joe Bast‍ardi concentrated purely on the US, so that wouldn't be that relevant here. The nearest we've come to it was the late Paul Bartlett, who back in the day did some research which showed, up to the 90s at least, that a warm, dry October followed by a cold, wet November was the thing to look for if you wanted a cold winter.

(The implication was that it was blocking setting up in a certain way which would bring us a cold winter via easterlies - which took the form of high pressure over or to the east of the UK, then the high migrated further north in November, funneling lows over us. It's all a bit moot now, of course, as we all know how rare easterlies are these days!)

Joe B used to do occasional 'Daily Express' style winter Artic blast ramp-up forecasts for Europe and the U.K. which mostly pretty much failed to live up to his hype.

Maybe there is something to it but in my not worth a feck observations, a coolish October, especially one with frosts (which hasn't happened yet here anyway) tends to forewarn of a mild dampish winter with little frost; whereas very wet and stormy Octobers/Novembers often suggest a cooler winter ahead. All anecdotal of course but that is how my perspective has been shaped over the years. 

Cherry picking of course but interesting. 

P17 was quite interesting too. 

Taken from the other side , but interesting I'd say 

The GFS 12z is evolving quite differently to the 06z: much more energy in the northern arm of the jet, diving south towards Scandi/NW Russia and the mid-Atlantic high being squeezed and slipping SE.  The low pressure system that slides SSE next Friday now drifts under the high and moves very slowly westwards, becoming a significant system in the Azores area by T+192

GFS out to Day 10 now and signs of a reasonably potent northerly developing.

GFS decent blocking and gives us a cold shot

Even a little brief wintriness in East Anglia as a trough drops south - JFF, as you would say.

Just be our luck if this Winter is full of Northern blocking and in the wrong place for us 

IIRC, there were consistent indications from the model output by early-mid November 2010 that something major was likely to develop. The sings were becoming increasingly evident from the model output we could access on this site and from what I recall, the MetO was beginning to mention the increasing possibility of the notable wintry spell developing before the end of that November by the time we reached the middle of that month.

If my memory serves me well, the MetO were quite a bit quicker in picking up the coming of the late November/December 2010 severe spell than they were in detecting the onset of the severe wintry spell which began in lead-up to Christmas 2009.

Being in the deep south my interest usually starts in mid-November.

Historically much has been made of the warm October/cold winter theory.

That isn't going to happen this October but it proves that you can read anything into October about the following winter and probably justify any position to suit a cold winter outcome.

If the current rather blocked and cool set up exists in a month then we may have to look at it more seriously 

I was thinking of highlighting that the ECM run proves that even a negative NAO doesn't guarantee cold for the British Isles..... oh those annoying short waves, eh?

😉

18z GFS 168 ...............Some interesting charts around 

This is also setting up so nicely 

Yes, it always amuses me how people try and argue that the weather we experience in one artificially created time period will result in a different weather type in another artifically created time period. "Warm Septembers are always followed by mild winters" etc...

The truth is, much research has been done on the matter, and it's always come out inconclusive or showing no correlation. If it was that easy, the weather would be nowhere near as interesting as it is.

Anyway with regards to the models, it's certainly looking very interesting. Sadly for cold lovers however, it's too early. It's a bit like getting the early signs of a perfect summer pattern in April. That said, it could be an indication as to where the atmosphere is going through the winter...

Cool and some really cold stuff spreading from the NE week 2, meeting Atlantic opposition and dumping rain over the UK that week  http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

GFS - LP settling over SE Wed 14th with weak ridge HP over Scotland not lasting as LP appears off W Ireland Sat 17th but travels S leaving again transient HP this time over all UK before deep LP from NW arrives N England 985mb Thu 22nd again moving S and leaving ridge of HP behind and more L{ from Atlantic threatened by Thu 29th

GEFS - Much as yesterday, cool, returning to normal Thu 19th (a bit below in Scotland) but without much confidence thereafter -a wide spread of temps on offer, indeed a 20C spread for some locations. Rain today and fairly frequent after 19th (Scotland from 21st)

ECM - similar to GFS up to Sat 17th but that LP having moved south returns northwards and intensifies by Thu 22nd so agreeing on LP regime then but with centre further W

I am sure your friend in Cyprus continue to tell you it been very hot with over 40C bein recorded this month and the continuing hot weather in E Med give us chance here to be colder if this continue into end of November like 2010 when E Med had record high 20's temps days non-stop while here was very cold.   No change on the ensembles for bot here staying below average and above average in E Med, Cyprus.  

GFS is getting really keen on bringing unsettled weather in from the W / NW during the third week of October

Look familiar ??