At least the ECM is still going along with the idea of a high-pressure end to the month/first few days of November. 

GFS on the other hand seem to love its big lows and that. Too soon for all this heavy Autumnal crap.

The same thing is probably true if you could find one which actually led to some "interesting" weather here in Edinburgh since that isn't something which normallly happens, even when the weather is more interesting throughout the rest of the UK.

Jetstream: currently strong W-ly winding up into loop enfolding UK Sun 25th and back to more W-lies running S of uK Wed 28th only for other loops to appear Sat 31st and Tue 3rd, the UK getting mainly a S-ly flow from these. Then a meandering but strong W-ly in vicinity of UK to Sun 8th.

GFS: trough centred N Scotland Sun 25th (further S than previously) covering all UK; ex-hurricane arrives Scotland Thu 29th 970mb (also further S and it has been 950mb on Atlantic earlier); another LP brushes NW Scotland Tue 3rd 960mb and the run ends with 950mb Iceland. Winds generally from the SW so breezy but mild. Basically standard autumn fare with LP running across the N Atlantic with significant HP no closer than C Europe throughout.

GEFS: like yesterday, good agreement on cool in S, near norm in N, to Fri 30th then mean of runs near normal with lots of variation. In S, significant rain Sun 25th, then decreasing, les rain than forecast yesterday and quite dry for first week of Nov. Different pattern in N, rain mostly Thu 29th - Sun 1st, not quite as dry thereafter.

ECM: similar to GFS to Fri 30th though LPs a bit further N, then takes a different view, promotes HP (as it did 2 days ago but dropped the idea yesterday) 1030 mb N France Sat 31st ridging N-wards strongly by Mon 2nd

16-dayer: temp basically near average, hints of a little warmer in W Europe week 2; Rain generally over UK and NW Europe week 1, becoming drier except for NW coasts week 2

GFS: series of LP rolling past NW Scotland, deepest as they pass Rockall - 960mb Sun 25th, 955mb Wed 28th, 970mb Tue 3rd then HP established over UK from Fri 6th 1035mb Channel slowly moving E over the next few days. Should be windy and mild from the SW for most of the period

GEFS: Rain in S now, declining to Sat 31st then mostly dry. Temps agree on cool to Fri 30th, then mean of runs close to norm but the average skewed by a few exceptions while the majority go for warm Tue 3rd Nov and cool Sat 7th Nov. Rain pattern different for Scotland - not much until Sat 30th, then more frequent than further S but nothing extreme.

ECM: Similar to GFS. It's given up on a major ridge of HP shown yesterday though HP over France established Tue 3rd, sooner than GFS

I like the ending of GFS 12Z , get the HP over us and have patience to see where it goes 

Jetstream; after today's loop moves out of the way, a strong flow across the UK, first to the S then to the N then especially strong and direct Sun 1st. That is unstable and at first breaks up into loops before fragmenting entirely and leaving the UK alone Thu 5th - Mon 9th - but back from the NW Tue 10th

GFS; depressions tracking SW-NE in N Atlantic, brushing NW Scotland at times with strong/gale SW-lies to Tue 3rd. HP flirts with the SE until Wed 4th when anticyclone appears off Ireland and forms ridge across UK to Tue 10th but towars te end of this period retrogressing an allowing cooler air from the N.

GEFS; in the S cool to Fri 30th with occasional splashes of rain, then warm for a few days before possibly cooler again from Wed 4th. Perhaps some rain around Tue 3rd but otherwise rather dry. Similar tem trend in Scotland but with less agreement between runs and also more chance of rain up to the 3rd.

ECM; like GFS until Mon 2nd when strong W-lies for all (rather than SW-lies toward the N)Wed 4th shows HP over Germany, not Ireland, with ridge to all UK but stopping short of NW Scotland

16-dayer - milder across the whole of Europe with much rain to the N & NW in week 1; drier in week 2 with proper cold weather moving into NE Europe.

GFS - Depressions develop S of Iceland and fill as they move NE-wards for some 10 days (Wed 28th with remnants of TS Epsilon 950mb) with windy conditions from W or SW for UK. HP asserts itself Thu 5th with centre moving across Uk to Norway leaving UK under a col  Mon 9th. That is broken up by LP from the N 995mb in the N Sea Wed 11th.

GEFS - Cool at first then in the S mild Fri 30th to Thu 5th, but in Scotland oscillating between high and low temps, after which mean of runs close to norm but overall uncertain. Very dry in the S throughout (EDIT - contradicts the above and BBC forecasts for this week), Scotland with wettef spell Fri 30th to Wed 4th.

ECM - showsthe LPs moving across as above but adds in a closer approach for one of them, 955mb W of Shetland Sun 1st; the HP later on i.e. Thu 5th is still hanging around further off in the SW

An awful lot of the GEFS are starting show HP across or around the UK blocking the Atlantic later on in the run , lets hope this continues .

Again GEFS shows some interesting charts , shutting out the Atlantic  day  10 +

Nice high building over the UK to dry things out....hopefully a nice brisk easterly in the south will prevent any fog. 

I don't mind a bit of fog but dangerous for driving in though. No mist or fog at all here so far this Autumn which is unusual for here in Thames Valley.

Jetstream strong and across the UK this week with notably high speeds Sun 1st (associated with cold plunge in US pushing it S-wards on that side of the Atlantic - and giving record Oct snowfalls in Denver). Stream then buckles, forming closed circulation over UK Fri 6th (Iceland getting the worst of it).The stream then splits into N and S sections leaving the UK aloe for a while, but promising to resume Thu 12th. 

GFS shows LP centres N of Scotland through to Tue 3rd with strong/gale force W or SW winds for most; then HP settles over UK (1040mb Wales Thu 5th) slowly transferring E-wards and hanging around the Baltic to Wed 11th with weak trough of LP off W Ireland with S-ly winds.

GEFS cool to Fri 30th, mild to Tue 3rd, cool to Fri 6th, then probably close to seasonal norm  (majority of runs above, average pulled down by some rather cold outliers). More rain than forecast yesterday, esp now and around Mon 2nd but still not a lot and only occasional splashes in a few runs thereafter; rather more rain in the W and a day or two earlier. Moscow mild and dry, Reykjavik average temp but very snowy.

ECM has closer approach by LP Sun 1st - Tue 3rd but otherwise like GFS

We've had a couple of mornings with fog. A week or so ago we had one morning where it was bright sunshine when I woke up and then fog appeared out of nowhere about 7.30-8am. Must have risen up out of the valley as it got down to near freezing at Farnborough that morning.

But yes those still and foggy autumnal mornings have been in short supply so far. Models suggest we might have a few more before long.

16-dayer says above average temps for the UK and Europe generally this week, colder weather moving into NE Europe later. Lots of rain for UK and western Scandi this week, dry almost everywhere next week

GFS - W-ly or SW-ly for UK for this week with lp moving SW-NE off Scotland; closest approach is 985mb Hebrides Tue 3rd. (But FAX says 966mb Sun 1st over C Scotland) Then HP moves in and across UK to become well established over Baltic 1035mb Sat 7th with light S-lies for UK and weak trough W of Ireland. The HP ridges across UK and a new centre develops to the W 1035mb SW approaches Fri 13th but HP collapses to the E and LP moves down over Scandi with NW-lies  affecting E of UK

GEFS - in the S, mild Fri 30th - Tue 3rd, cool to Fri 6th, then mean of runs close to norm. Rain more plentiful than forecast yesterday Sat1st - Tue 3rd (but I think we'll see more than this before Saturday), dry for a while, suggestions of more rain in some runs from Tue 10th. Scotland similar, though rain is here forecast to start earlier. than the 1st

ECM - like GFS but has LP on Mon 2nd not Tue 3rd and deeper over Shetland. HP on Sat 7th more of a ridge from C Europe to Iceland with strong N-lies already setting in over scandi.

EDIT - models may be upset by ex-hurricane Zeta which appears on the Atlantic next Fri/Sat

Nice blocking starting to show up , all good IMO , get the HP over us and see where it goes after that 

Fog and frost should come into it early November 

GFS - depressions moving across N Atlantic with strong SW-lies for all (and probably lots of orographic rainfall), closest LP 985mb Shetland Tue 3rd. Then HP asserts itself, moving across the UK Thu 5th and into Europe, staying mostly around Poland and the Baltic with the Atlantic nibbling at the W side of the UK, gently at first but more vigorously by Sat 14th.

GEFS - mild to Wed 3rd, cool to Fri 6th, mild again for a few days in the S subsiding to the seasonal norm everywhere. Rain around until Wed 3rd, dry-ish for a while, more chance of rain ca Thu 12th (presumably some runs bring the Atlantic in before Sat 14th). 

ECM - like GFS. At end of run LP off Cornwall is well-defined in ECM but rather flabby on GFS Sun 8th

DEW - it would be interesting to me to see some knowledgeable comments relating to this news story. May I invite some?
'Moderate to strong' La Niña weather event develops in the Pacific
"This La Niña, which is set to last through the first quarter of 2021, will likely have a cooling effect on global temperatures.
It will also have a major influence on global weather patterns."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54725970

Thanks.
Roger

Blink and you'll miss it, but the 12z GFS shows a textbook Scandinavian High, leading to easterlies and snow in the SE.

I declare silly season open!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/5678/gfs-0-384_fqg7.png

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/1907/gfs-2-384_udv6.png

Chart of the year so far...just got a gritting job in Kent too so bring it on....

Yes short sea track