Nice to see 

The ensemble mean anomaly at the end of the run suggests some support for higher pressure over the Greenland area

I thought La Niña patterns favoured early winter cold?

Against that, we're close to the solar minimum which also favours more blocked patterns in the northern hemisphere winter.

Strong La Ninas can actually force cool zonal, from what I can see the current one is moderate.  One of many factors, but a weakening La Nina through the NH winter tends more to blocking.

Any high pressure in Greenland will be severely tested in the next 4 weeks or so......hope all this blocking north or east isnt just another example of a lengthly weather rut that delivers nothing but expends a few weeks of winter weather....personally I'd prefer to see a more mobile set up bit of cold zonality followed by a decent northerly  blast......last one 2010 ......so until one arrives I'm not truely convinced of impending  severe cold weather hitting the UK

Jetstream - currently strong from the W but in the course of the week buckling so the UK gets first a S-ly jet then on the other side of the loop a N-ly, and finally on Sat 7th no jet at all as it has broken up. New loops form in the Atlantic through to Tue 17th but fail to progress, with just the W edge of the UK being affected by the leading edge of these loops, i.e. a S-ly  jet as far as UK weather goes.

GFS - current LP centred near Shetland moves away and SW-lies subside as HP moves across UK Fri 6th 1035mb on its way to W Russia where it stays throughout (1050 mb by Mon 16th). UK has slack LP Mon 9th gradually being taken over by large stationary mid-Atlantic depression with S-ly winds through to Mon 16th with potentially rather warm air Sat 14th (but only a small pressure shift could convert that to cool SE-lies). No sign of the NE-ly hinted at in the closing stages of yesterday's run

GEFS - mild now, then cool to Thu 5th/Fri 6th, mild again for a few days but with mean of runs slowly back to norm; a few v.cold runs as uncertainty increases after Fri 13th. Dry Wed 4th -Sun 8th, some rain around after that but not much and uncertain.

ECM - agrees with GFS though HP over Russia is weaker and then at end of run the HP retrogresses from Russia to become established over Faeroes 1035mb Wed 11th.

Lol hlb charts imploded already surprise, surprise. Without strat/trop link up high latitude blocks splitting the vortices over Arctic as shown in yesterdays NWP are complete hogwash. NWP models now returning to more believable synoptics.

I know I may get slated for this but what a chart and potential for a cold set up not to mention the major hurricane off the eastern seaboard if this came about!?

First Nor easter!? WOW! if this did come about.

That chart (from yesterday’s 18z GFS op run) is already out of date.

Oops! Well spotted! 

Yes, slack winds and clear skies and temperature inversions become probable.

With luck we might even get the first air frost this week although just a few ground frosts might have to suffice.

My phone app is now showing a low of 0C for Tuesday and 1C for Wednesday. A bit different from the current 17C!

16-dayer: UK hangs onto mild air, even a little warmer in week 2 while E & N Europe starts seeing much colder, though that could include night frosts and sunny days for UK. Rain only for Atlantic and Med locations for next two weeks.

GFS: SW-ly gales for a couple of days then HP moves across from Atlantic into Europe as before, 1035mb NSea Fri 6th  to 1030 Belarus Mon 9th, and managing to hang on in that general region to Wed 18th, up to 1050mb at times. UK under slack LP at first, taken over by S-ly flow from static mid Atlantic LP from Mon 9th onwards, some mild southerlies persisting until wed 18th when the LP moves a lot closer to the W.

GEFS: Cool,  then mild from Fri 6th, staying a little above norm thereafter to Wed 18th. Not much rain, and inconsistent between runs, FRi 13th and Wed 18th offer highest probability.

ECM: similar but positions the HP further S & W, mostly over Germany even ridging across to UK Thu 12th

GFS 216

ECM at 216 

Bit of a difference