Thankfully that is 16 days out

Better than that, the block build NW towards Greenland, which would take away the usual threat from pressure from the northern arm of the jet.  Almost a classic block - if it’s still there in 2 weeks!

Yes and dare I say it It could even be my first white birthday since Krakow Poland on 13th November 2007 as I would be at home. Unusual to see such a Scandinavian high and so early in the season, given November is the most zonal month of the year and the PV is strengthen - not that I am complaining at that above chart of course.

November 1995 featured and easterly of sorts in the SE with lying snow to low levels. Lasted til late afternoon too.

although as the saying goes “Ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter be slush and muck.”

It shows how the climate has changed when, in that saying, November was clearly regarded as a winter month and now we have negligible expectations for wintry weather in that month.

But I'm cautiously optimistic given we're at a solar minimum and have a moderate La Niña in the Pacific.  I'm in danger of drifting into 'winter forecast' territory but it's, hopefully, useful background to bear in mind when assessing the charts.

I was just taking the words from the saying, " “Ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter be slush and muck.”

'rest of the winter' implies winter has started, doesn't it?

November 1984.....had a notable early November snow event in SE England...quickly melted but the winter of 1985 followed on ....we are due a long prolonged winter tbh 2009/2010 was last one but I wouldnt put that as an absolute classic by any means

25 November 2005, Taunton

A thousand cars stranded overnight in Cornwall, schools closed, airlifts, etc.

The rest of that winter was average in southern Britain, but very warm in Scotland, particularly Aberdeen, inevitably.

Then spring 2006 saw snow in various parts of Britain, including thundersnow in Aberdeen in March and heavy snow in the NE and SE of England in April.

So yes. Snow in November doesn't bode well for winter, but it does for the spring!

18z run from northern hemisphere view OP run @ 300z: 

Plus the hurricane season still continues in the Gulf of Mexico if this comes about!?

Jetstream strong from the W beginning to buckle on Monday and leaving UK between a branch to the N and a cut-off to the S by Thu 5th. UK remains squeezed between these for a week but after a day (Sun 8th) when the stream breaks up the stream resumes from the W and forms a loop around the UK Fri 13th

GFS - SW-lies dominate with LP close to NW Scotland for a few days until HP arises on the Atlantic and ridges across the UK Thu 5th  and moves to Europe. Unlike yesterday, slack LP over UK rather than further W by Tue 10th and with cool air feed from N, not mid from S. That LP deepens 985 mb Irish Sea Thu 12th reinforced by LP from the N to Hebrides 970 mb Sat 14th, none of which was shown yesterday 0zand looks as if associated  with the jetstream loop

GEFS - mild and wet to Tue 3rd, cool and dry to Sat 7th, mild for a couple of day after which temp near norm and rain resumes, more so than yesterday esp in S.

ECM - similar to GFS but less of the "cool air" from the N, more from the Atlantic

Certainly a Euro-HP, but that of itself doesn;t merit being called a block, There's still plenty of room for depressions to move across north of it.

In the 80s the RAC rally often seemed to coincide with cold snaps. 

I remember that! Back in the late 80s and early 90s I always noticed that if it snowed for the RAC rally, then the winter would be mild

In November 1988 I was visiting my parents in Matlock and we went to watch the RAC rally which was staged through Chatsworth. There was 2 inches of laying snow and a blue sky that day.... we all know the winter that followed😞

Twenty years earlier, the Monte Carlo rally (but in January) infallibly did so. Made for some interesting film shots!

[quote=Brian Gaze;1270643]

In the 80s the RAC rally often seemed to coincide with cold snaps. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quite true as an avid follower of rallying, I remember Carlos Seinz tearing through Chatsworth House special stage in 5 inches of snow in 93'..Take it from me it was bloody freezing

Back on topic and back on top of the charts today is the gfs 00 Op with a startling hold over its keen will to introduce a Greenland HP middle of November. Supported by ECM albeit slightly earlier evolution.

Happy all Hallows Eve by the way. 

16 dayer- mild this week but cold weather re-appearing in NE Europe next week where currently well above norm. Rain for the NW and up into Scandi thisweek, dry next week apart from a blob in the SW.

GFS - For the next few days, forecast unchanged from yesterday; Atlantic LPs rushing past the UK this week esp affecting the NW, then ridge of HP across UK Thu 5th soon moving to Europe Sat 7th, but now with more definite LP over Biscay. This also moves E into the continent and a new ridge of HP forms over the UK linking to heights N of Iceland continuing to Sat 14th. The final chart, for Sun 15th, is interesting - a possible NE-ly blast developing over the Baltic.

GEFS - mild now, cool/cold Tue 3rd - Sat 7th, mild to Thu 12th with good agreement between runs, after which variability sets in but mean temps close to norm. Similar but less certain in N. Rain in the next few days (less than BBC/FAX suggest)  then basically dry for two weeks, certainly  much less than forecast yesterday.

ECM - as GFS to Thu 5th but then holds the HP closer to the UK before collapsing it entirely and showing the LP from Biscay travelling NE across UK, affecting us directly

Interesting from ECM 240

Further down the line -  from GFS 

GFS continues the theme with blocking , lets hope its not wasted 

At the death from the GFS control