Notice the cold on the Continent. I remember it well 

18z op not bad. As has been the way in the last decade or so (including 2010) the West looks like fairing better than the East particularly as we move South. If the Continent was cold it would be a whole different picture as the low draws air in off the near Continent as it drifts East. In fact it would be a classic S.E corner snow event. Still not bad for the first week of December.  Not so much mention of thickness these days but the 528 dam looks to be just west of London. Will it be the old virtual M4 line again?  

It makes a change to see improving runs - instead of the normal disappointments and downgrades. Looks like we will have a proper winter at last. Disturbing how Brians portrait of 1875 shows so much cold so early in the year compared to now, in just 145 years, a nat’s piss in geological time, and dramatic in climatological time. That must have been a proper Dickensian winter.

This is all JFF in FI range but looking at 18z Op, I like how the large are of HP over Russia/western Siberia moves westwards. What amazing retrogression - could be really wintry if this did come off - one to bank perhaps!?

Appreciating the knowledgable output on marginal high uppers snow events.

Just looking at the day time temps for Murmansk as we head into mid December. Surely the warmth to our NE will become the most notable factor of this winter and there is no real sign of that changing for the foreseeable...a crying shame with such  favourable WAA to possibly come.

16-dayer still reluctant to come on board with the idea of a really cold spell, just a tiny 'blue patch' over the Scottish Highlands, and temps average for the UK and well above average for Scandi and N Russia while the pptn chart shows heavy Atlantic influence for western coasts of Europe i.e. lots of wet.

GFS - the expected LP now shown Fri 4th 955mb over the Channel with long run of N-lies west of Ireland slowly filling and hanging around the N Sea until Wed 9th, its progress blocked by a Ural HP whose position comes to mean a SE-ly flow. After the 9th, Atlantic LP pokes in tentatively at first (995mb Scotland Sat 12th) with something deeper in the wings on Sun 13th, HP over Eurooe retreating then collapsing by then.

GEFS - temps a couple of degrees below seasonal norm to Tue 9th with good agreement and thence mean close to norm with an increasing number of outliers. Lots of rain Fri 4th +/- a day, most marked in SE, generally on the dry side after that but some rain in NW. Some chances of snow around the 4th but fading shortly after.

ECM - similar to GFS to Tue 8th but rather than filling further, the LP is then re-invigorated, linking up with a trough from Iceland and settling over Wight 985mb Fri 11th - but not a classic cold Channel low as it draws in air from Greece, not Poland.

ECM fantastic blocking again out to day 10 but awful 850s very frustrating. And a famous GFS wobble this morning as well. 

Arpege 00z is interesting from here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=00&charthour=75&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20type

ECM short term has a fairly decent snow event for the SE and EA favoured spots probably the Chilterns maybe 2 or 3cm . Not to be sniffed at in these GW times.

So completely & utterly different from yesterday when it showed snow for NW England. Of course I know these charts shouldn't be taken too literally as regards positioning of snow, especially several days out but that's ridiculous!

Not sure which run but the 12z is still available and looks reasonably consistent with this morning's update. Link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=87&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20type

Didn't know the control extended out to 840 hours so this is just for fun for Xmas day:

Only 600 hours away so not to be taken seriously but looks ideal set up for cold..!? 

What's WAA?

Thanks

Warm Air Advection (at least I think that's what WAA stands for!)

Warm Air Advection I think it means. I'm sure someone will correct me if wrong :)

This run actually gets some proper cold air -10 850s to the UK.  Shows what's possible even though it looks so elusive at the moment. 

Yes it is this one:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

PS: Remember it is always yesterday's 00z and not today's.