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Russwirral
02 December 2020 17:09:48

Oh my .....


From one run where we are talking about potential all time crazy winter setup...


to the next run where we are importing airmass our summer time would be proud of....


 


+10 -> uppers in December...


 


Netweather GFS Image


Tractor Boy
02 December 2020 17:11:57

I’ve a hunch we’re in for a good 12z.

Just a feeling

Eyes down.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


How's that feeling?


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_348_1.png 


Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Heavy Weather 2013
02 December 2020 17:14:52
So it was an excellent run to show how the models don’t have a clue 🙈
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Steve Murr
02 December 2020 17:26:34

One for doc for Friday Morn from the ICON


doctormog
02 December 2020 17:34:02


One for doc for Friday Morn from the ICON



Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


If I see any settling snow on Friday I am willing to eat my hat and any other hats people wish to send me. I suspect high ground inland from here (and the mountains especially) will do rather well. With a flow off the North Sea there is little if any chance of any proper snow here. Looking at that chart, if it were slightly higher resolution it would show the transition to snow a few miles inland. 


warrenb
02 December 2020 17:45:40
Well the 10 day outlook video from the Met goes up to Monday then basically says they haven't got a clue
Steve Murr
02 December 2020 18:14:54

ECM 12z Brings 10 inches of snowfall for Surrey & Shires !!
( obviously at elevation ) EURO 4 is 6 inches SE of London...

ballamar
02 December 2020 18:41:17
Think the little French High will be making a comeback to deflect lows where we don’t want!
Brian Gaze
02 December 2020 18:59:10

Dramatic and exciting end to ECM. 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
02 December 2020 19:05:08


ECM 12z Brings 10 inches of snowfall for Surrey & Shires !!
( obviously at elevation ) EURO 4 is 6 inches SE of London...


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


I'll eat my hat if those figures are anywhere near the mark on Friday. (Not saying you're wrong about what ECM is showing)


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Zubzero
02 December 2020 19:30:36

Ecm Snow Depth


I'd be very surprised if it's any where near that in reality come Friday. I've not used the ECM snow depth charts before ,are they just as useless as the others?

doctormog
02 December 2020 19:34:57


Ecm Snow Depth


I'd be very surprised if it's any where near that in reality come Friday. I've not used the ECM snow depth charts before ,are they just as useless as the others?


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


In my experience they seriously overestimate snow cover and depth.


Zubzero
02 December 2020 19:44:11


 


In my experience they seriously overestimate snow cover and depth.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Thanks Doc, I thought as much.


Is it as simple as once the models prameter for snow is meet. It converts each mm of rain in to 1cm of snow depth or is there more to it then that?

nsrobins
02 December 2020 19:56:02

It’s no surprise the 12Z GEFS has the OP significantly above the mean near the end of the run. 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
roadrunnerajn
02 December 2020 20:41:56


 


If I see any settling snow on Friday I am willing to eat my hat and any other hats people wish to send me. I suspect high ground inland from here (and the mountains especially) will do rather well. With a flow off the North Sea there is little if any chance of any proper snow here. Looking at that chart, if it were slightly higher resolution it would show the transition to snow a few miles inland. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes when I was living around Peterhead many years ago, Mintlaw was usually the place it turned to snow.


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Gooner
02 December 2020 20:50:54


Oh my .....


From one run where we are talking about potential all time crazy winter setup...


to the next run where we are importing airmass our summer time would be proud of....


 


+10 -> uppers in December...


 


Netweather GFS Image


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Chart image


So on its own its out of sight lol


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Russwirral
02 December 2020 20:51:21
based on the big developments in the ECM, it will be interesting which way the higher res models like ICON, Arpege and Arome take this, this evening.

within 24 hrs now, still alot to play for anywhere in England
Steve Murr
02 December 2020 21:25:06
ECM raw is extreme in terms of moisture values -
18Z raw ICON which has just run has however moved to the ECM.

12z ICON had 1-2cm across EA, now like other models its sharpened up the track which means its hitting colder air.
NW kwnt is 2-4cm - parts of Cambs & suffolk 4-6cm

There have been some GFS ens with high values I will have a look on 18z, on the high PPN levels the height of the 0c isotherm was about 150M-200M
S

Brian Gaze
02 December 2020 21:27:19


 


Thanks Doc, I thought as much.


Is it as simple as once the models prameter for snow is meet. It converts each mm of rain in to 1cm of snow depth or is there more to it then that?


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


I am confident the snow depth charts from all of the models work better for continental locations where parameters are much less marginal than in the UK. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
02 December 2020 21:29:21

Icon 18z will be overdoing accumulations IMO. 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
fairweather
02 December 2020 21:40:00


ECM 12z Brings 10 inches of snowfall for Surrey & Shires !!
( obviously at elevation ) EURO 4 is 6 inches SE of London...


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Based on all of the expert forecasts that is not going to happen. If it does I would be happy to say it was a brilliant post on your part and forecast on ECM's 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
xioni2
02 December 2020 21:41:14


 I am confident the snow depth charts from all of the models work better for continental locations where parameters are much less marginal than in the UK. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


In this case though it's less a matter of temperature and more a matter of precipitation. The EC has a sharper upper level trough engaging the cold air with much greater vorticity advection and large amounts of precipitation. It's the precip intensity which keeps it as snow in the slack flow. It's a very delicate setup, almost all other models have different ideas (less development, precip further east etc.), but they have been trending towards the EC. There should be somewhat better agreement tomorrow, but still plenty of spread.

fairweather
02 December 2020 21:47:29


Ecm Snow Depth


I'd be very surprised if it's any where near that in reality come Friday. I've not used the ECM snow depth charts before ,are they just as useless as the others?


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Yes.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
02 December 2020 21:56:20


 


In this case though it's less a matter of temperature and more a matter of precipitation. The EC has a sharper upper level trough engaging the cold air with much greater vorticity advection and large amounts of precipitation. It's the precip intensity which keeps it as snow in the slack flow. It's a very delicate setup, almost all other models have different ideas (less development, precip further east etc.), but they have been trending towards the EC. There should be somewhat better agreement tomorrow, but still plenty of spread.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Fair enough but with wet snow falling and compaction taking place I'm confident depths will be nowhere near the ECM forecasts in southern counties.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
02 December 2020 22:05:47


 Fair enough but with wet snow falling and compaction taking place I'm confident depths will be nowhere near the ECM forecasts in southern counties.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Sure, but to be fair the true raw EC snow depths for Friday are 5-15cm. Some vendors use their own calcs.

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