I stand by what I said earlier. Maybe we have to play with fire during the middle part of December with the Atlantic making a push.

06z high could go anywhere from 300hrs. It’s a big high and we start to see better 850s moving in around it.

I don’t like mini resets, it’s dangerous and scary. But right now I’d take a bit of mildness if we get a decent run of cold weather towards Christmas.

Ends up blocked again though . It's certainly no ordinary December zonal crapfest. We just need lots of luck with the position.

However I am surprised - Look at how negative the AO and NAO is going both together as well as weakening of zonal winds @10hpa? We are going negative now hence colder weather ...but this is set to stay!? Also the GFS 06Z shows us blocked again in FI. Still game on?

AO

NAO

Strength of zonal winds

http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie_gefsonly.png

Really? 

Firstly there is little consistency and secondly, while there are few charts showing cold or very cold weather in that time scale, there are equally few showing very mild conditions. Some ensemble members show higher t850s associated with anticyclonic conditions but not very mild conditions. I agree that there is the potential for plenty of rain in places.

It looks cool to average overall. That of course does not preclude a few mild days here and there.

I can see what you mean, but there was the odd run during the week that showed milder potential.

This mornings GFS run (and to extent some aspects of the ECM) alude to a southerly based HP, with milder air either on its way or around.  

Looking at surface temps on the GFS - apart from the next few days frost becomes rare for the whole of he uk, with some overnight lows not leaving double figures.  

I would say that is mild if not very mild

an exmaple:

Quick look on surface temp annomalys:

a quick run through the pack and you can see apart from the next 3 days or so, Orange/peach is the colour for the next few weeks.

you could argue this is one run in isolation...

the 00z run example:

Ensembles:

They also show a big step up in a few days to milder weather...

All could change, Im hopeful it will.  But this has been a pattern for a few days now, our current cold spell is over (did it ever really start?)

You and moomin are both knowledgeable and experienced posters on here, more so than I. Why the knee-jerking?

Operational is one of the milder options in FI:

Russ the charts you use for your illustration are from the 11th rather than mid-month and my point was about consistency and the mid-month period onward. At that point (the 11th) the 06z GFS op run is milder than any of the 30 06z GEFS ensemble members. The consistency is not there for much other than a messy generally average with a bit of coolness and a bit of mildness thrown in. The increase in a fe days is more to around average than to mild as we are starting from a below average reference point.

More runs needed...

Some pretty remarkable scatter there in the ensembles. It just backs up what most in here have been saying so far - the models really haven't got a clue at the moment. It's pretty much 50:50 whether it will be cold or mild after day 7, in my opinion.

The similarity between the t850hPa mean and the long term average is quite remarkable over the next ten days or so. Of course that hides lots of patterns and possibilities, but nonetheless it is impressive!

Yes some 20'c range in difference between the milder and colder ENS runs. 

You would back the form horse or the most likely outcome...Mild.

But we hope that the synoptics fall into place for Cold.

True but AS mentioned above - both AO and NAO are staying negative as well as strength of zonal winds weakening so it could be they are picking up on a potential of a SSW!?

So you could conclude the horse doesn't have a jockey 

A long way out but something to keep at eye on over Siberia in FI range of course!?

typically when the Euro models come onboard with my thoughts from yesterday the gfs decides to jump ship. Not wanting to lose faith however lets see what this afternoon and evening runs have to say. Agree at the moment its hard to see how any deep cold could get into the pattern if the continental feed wins out. Arctic high could be one answer in the mid to longer range I think.

A number of people who don't comment read this thread. One simple piece of advice I would give - if they are cold weather fans - is start to twitch in a concerned manner when people post charts which show stratospheric warming many days ahead. 

so long as heights remain to our north, there will always be a reason for optimism.  The lack of genuinely cold uppers makes life harder, but we are not moving to the usual zonal pattern with PV over Greenland. Reasons to be cheerful, I think.

Last year we spent pretty much two thirds of winter chasing the SSW that happened and then spring arrived. It was horrendous.

Its hardly jumped ship the Op was on the hide side from the 15th

GFS bad again. UKMO better at 96 but just looks like a delay to the inevitable crashing through

Very nice looking GEM though. Day 10 looks like proper cold would eventually arrive here.