Remember how things changed after December 2012 though.

Sure, the Xmas 2012/ New Year 2013 period was mild and wet, but it wasn't that far into January 2013 when that was all brought to an end.

I'm not saying there will be a repeat of what happened then this time, but what I am not seeing in the models currently is any suggestion that the atlantic will have a one-way ticket over the British Isles as was the case throughout last winter.

Winter following the template most people expected so far. Still plenty of interest and I'd say there is a low to moderately low chance of it turning very cold later this month. The favoured outcome is for the Atlantic to muscle back and lay the foundations for a mild January. Probably close to 80:20.

Day 11 to 15 ECM ensembles look very blocked. Significant chance of an easterly in that timeframe. 

A sensible dose of realism from BG. Things will change, but Id say that's right at this range. 

Yes, it amazes me that people are surprised at this all too predictable epic fail. Does anyone seriously still believe that we will ever see another mid winter easterly or sustained northern blocking. The jet is simply too powerful these days

Let’s hope it goes the way of your last (very recent) forecast of headline-making widespread flooding eh Ian? The Old Testament has nothing on you.

Some people were making similar comments here pre 2009/2010, yet that didn't stop there being a month-long spell of severe cold in two successive winters, did it? There was also the cold of early 2013 which culminated in an unusually cold March.

If the jet was always the winner, the Beast from the East at the end of Feb/start of March 2018 would never have happened either. Yes, that spell was almost certainly down to the major SSW that took place not long beforehand. However, just because the jet is more likely to win doesn't mean it always will win. Even in these times the jet can be all but knocked out, as the above examples from the last decade have demonstrated.

Perhaps in a few hundred years! The climate report yesterday said by 2080 only the very tops of the Scottish mountains would see see freezing temperatures. We are at the beginning of a warming phase

I'm sure you've seen the extended ECM ensembles.  I'd say more like 50/50 chance of very cold weather by Christmas day.

There were multiple flood warnings even if flooding didn't make the headlines. Racing at Huntingdon was abandoned on Sunday due to a flooded course.

I agree with the comments from Brian and Beast.

How is it an ‘all too predictable epic fail’ when a) the period in question hasn’t happened yet and b) no one was predicting a cold December with anything like high probability

Although the chances of a decent cold spell going towards New Year (and we are currently in a cold spell in case it’s escaped your notice) are low (around 20/30%), it’s definitely finite and certainly not an epic fail even if we could describe it as such before it’s actually happened.

Does this temper your amazement? 😄

Can you ever make a post without mentioning SSW? Your understanding of SSW has several times proved to be limited and you also seem to assume it's an absolute necessity to have any cold weather. I haven't seen anything to indicate a SSW event so i don't see what you keep mentioning it.

There has been widespread flooding and it did make headlines, national headlines in the newspaper. Flooding in Scotland, Suffolk, Kent all made the news as rivers burst banks, and i posted links couple day's back. 

Very rarely would you get a forecast two weeks out of a very cold spell with a 50% confidence level. You  would do well to be 50% confident of any type of weather at that range. There is of course a chance but it isn't 50/50 I'm afraid.

No snow here but yesterday, here in the S.E corner,  was my lowest maximum for almost two years (Jan 23rd 2019). So , whilst I'm not expecting a very cold winter (as they are so rare these days) I'm not ruling out cold spells after one week of winter that was already below average..

A quite useful chart which I've not looked at before - this from the 00z ensemble run - showing the probability of snow falling:

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobnh-26-384.png?0

Would you really, with your experience on here ? If ensembles showed 80/20 chance of cold (i.e proper blocking) at T192 then I would reverse that to 20/80 as the actual chance never mind the far reaches of what is day 17.

It's my punt . Mainly based on the ECM ensembles.  

Unfortunately I wouldn't feel comfortable going for a 50/50 chance of very cold weather by Xmas day as much as I would like to. It would be excellent for media coverage and site traffic but it wouldn't be based on the reality I see. However, I don't claim to have a crystal ball so you and others can obviously reach your  own conclusions.  

Gfs 6z looks good day 10/11. Easterly incoming!

Look what do I know I'm just some numpty on a weather forum. But there's definitely something different about this December.  As the latest gfs is showing. 

definitely keeps the interest up !

Finally

a decent chart