Key sentence highlighted. That's the biggest difference I'm noticing this year, compared to say Feb last year. It's certainly an interesting pattern but as you say, the reality on the ground for the southern half of the UK is actually very little change from standard zonal fair. Perhaps more cold air on the back edge of the lows but certainly a less noticeable difference (and less interesting weather) than in the north of England and Scotland.

How about (for 1st -15th Feb):

"Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells spreading across the whole UK at times with the associated risk of wintry hazards."

Just for your reference, there is a good article on the BBC:: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/55662527

Yes and that was last week...I do wonder where they got this from: One of the models or just an illustration? - That looks like Thursdays weather pattern..?

Four days ago, fits in nicely with the meto outlook.

Meanwhile a Greek friend of mine was shivering last night at -5c

Yes, my partners family members posted photos of snow in Madytos ( near Halkadikki) in Greece. 

-2c today as a max for Istanbul. Snow tomorrow with a high of 0c.

Nice 

My friend lives in Serres 

Hes not reported any snow unfortunately 

Yes I saw a vid of a delighted Lady from Istanbul while it was snowing a couple of days ago

Have a look at the GFSP 12Z run then, fellow Hampshireite... usual health warnings for snow depth charts apply!

Meanwhile, back on topic in GFS operational land, it does seem that the lows are digging further and further south as each day goes by

Yep, over half way on the patience stakes now. Not long to go !

But it's pretty much what they've been saying for a while now, and they also talk of milder weather. Like i said very much status quo.

"Further south, there is a continued risk of unsettled conditions, with above-average rainfall and periods of slightly above average temperatures."

Taken out of the wider context, though:  southerly tracking lows with a weakened jet and considerable uncertainty about the boundary between Arctic and less cold/milder air masses.  The narrative taken against that background makes perfect sense: yes, odds favour a preponderance of milder conditions the further south you are and a much greater likelihood of cold weather dominating towards the north (Scotland being part of 'the north', for the purpose of clarity).  Places in the middle could end up flooded or buried in snow, and there's no way of knowing until 2-3 days ahead.

Not a bad looking 12z GFS run - there's even a fun little runner LP that delivers snow for some in the South next Saturday. As usual caveat being it's just pretty pixels and not something to take particularly seriously at that range other than flagging that when you're in a predominantly chilly period little tweaks to the pattern can be the difference between chilly and wet or temporarily cold and snowy. (FWIW there's another band of rain/sleet/snow shown moving SE'wards for Sunday too).

(Thursdays snow risk is of course much more likely to verify and that's looking potentially very interesting for some folks in Northern England and Scotland. There's a snow risk for the Midlands out of that LP on GFS for a time too, although I suspect nothing to get too excited about).

Just to highlight the longer term uncertainty noticeably less in the way of mild air dragged over the south on this run. There's still some above average days, just less pronounced. If I had to bet, I'd say the ens will be broadly consistent with the last few sets - a couple of milder days down here incoming, then 4-5 days of chilly weather followed by a couple of mild, possibly noticeably mild days and then who know thereafter with plenty of milder than average and cooler than average members.

Without wanting to sound like a stuck record I know it's not the prize we could have won but it's a mostly chilly unsettled outlook and that at least means the possibility of snow popping up although obviously more chance of that the further North you are and the higher up you are. There's also still a chance of a few tweaks meaning a more widespread cold pattern*.

GEM run has a much more active LP for Saturday in to Sunday, which takes a more Northerly track and means coldish rain IMBY with snow risk much further North. Thereafter it diverges from GFS more noticeably and has a ridge of HP allowing some properly cold air to get dragged over Scotland (-11 850s for a brief time) before the ridge collapses towards Scandi and we get an attempt at a Scandi HP.

*So if I've got the MetO view correct they're of the opinion our current in coming chilly/cold spell is not due to the SSW. Makes for some interesting speculation then that they think the current warming will have more of an impact including reducing the strength of the jet. A LP stalling in the right place could bring some cold air more widely and for longer, conversely in the wrong place and we might end up having an early spring. 

There's plenty of HLB by T+240 on the 12Z op ECM. The trouble is that it's all at about 75N and so too far north to much benefit us, especially those of us who live in southern England. I wonder if that's because the SSW seems to be centred way on the other side of the North Pole, on a longitude of about 150E, with the UK still on the southern edge of what remains of the Polar Vortex.

The zonal winds dipping again shortly

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202101180000

The longer term ECM charts are showing some options of easterlies to follow the dip in winds (well the most I have seen this year)

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_stamps?base_time=202101180000&parameter=mean%20sea%20level%20pressure&valid_time=202102070000

Martin

Decent spread. 

OVER 90% of the gefs starting to look a lot more interesting post t240. Will we now finally start to see a trend to nirvana synoptic charts as we go through the coming week or will it be another false dawn.

Back in real time the pattern is more amplified than what was being shown three or so days ago with more areas under a threat of some snow during the next several days by the looks of things. Still hopeful of at least one very cold memorable snowy spell this winter. Still very much all to play for.

What exactly is interesting 🤔 

Yes I was just thinking, the latest GEFS is the least interesting for a little while. But I’m sure one of the next few will be interesting again. 

You have seen the 12z ENS - what's interesting about more rain and flooding this week and showers by the weekend followed by more rain next week?

Where are you based? - would be good to know your location?