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fairweather
21 January 2021 16:26:22


Its still a very exciting of period of weather / model watching with the cold period having commenced today lasting until Tues/Weds.


In that time there is the prospect of short notice troughs, secondary lows and other organised areas of precipitation moving across in cold air. Thicknesses are often between 519-524dam with 850's below -5c and low pressure on the scene.


I think I will be unlucky if I don't get to observe another high ground brief snow event this weekend. As a result the camera is charged in readiness and on standby.


As you know I don't follow specific model analysis after 144 hours as its an inefficient use of my time but I do look at ensembles. There is enough interest for me after the 27-30th milder blip to hope for more exciting synoptics as we move into early February.


One final point and without being controversial. I believe way too many members on this forum focus on charts at over 168 hours and actually miss what is going on before then. Only last night heavy snowfall fell briefly across vast swathes of the country briefly, something that will repeated in the next few days. I see the words 'surprise' being mentioned when it actual fact if you spent more time looking at the close range high resolution models that wouldn't have been the case.


Focus on the here and now and not the future and your love for the 'actual weather' will soon return. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 There is of course room for long term specualtion and I think most realise that comes with strings but that shouldn't detract from what the short term models are showing, particularly the fax charts which rarely get a mention.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
21 January 2021 16:29:19


 


The daffodils have buds on them. Three out of the last 5 day's have been in double figures, and going forward high single or low double figures look set to return after the upcoming cooler couple day's pass - i must stress cooler as 5/6 degrees in January is hardly cold.


Thankfully it hasn't been that wet down here this month with rainfall totals being just shy of 50% the average.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


We've had them out at this time of year in some previous winters!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
ballamar
21 January 2021 16:49:09
Looking fairly Atlantic driven this run - almost cold zonality which could please some
picturesareme
21 January 2021 16:52:18


 


We've had them out at this time of year in some previous winters!


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Early varieties aside they're normally a good indicator of the type of winter we've had down here. Typically they begin to flower mid February however in milder winters they'll start a couple week's earlier and colder winters they might not begin until the end of February. 🙂

ballamar
21 January 2021 17:26:01
Ends on a blocked note with Azores maybe linking with Arctic high although does look like it could become a UK high. Next run will look different see if the ENS are trending colder
Zubzero
21 January 2021 17:34:21

I've noticed the GEM has 20 enesmbles @ the same ress as the GEFS but never seen them mentioned, wiil keep an 👀 on them.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc.php 

ballamar
21 January 2021 17:37:58
No need to look at any others P1 has it correct on GFS 😂 show what could happen if it goes right!
Brian Gaze
21 January 2021 17:57:30


I've noticed the GEM has 20 enesmbles @ the same ress as the GEFS but never seen them mentioned, wiil keep an 👀 on them.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc.php 


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


NAEFS was popular here at one time but I've not seen it mentioned for years. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
21 January 2021 18:06:45


Several southerly tracking lows on the 12z Para:


270z:



336z:



 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Those charts are 2 days old.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
21 January 2021 18:08:38


 


Those charts are 2 days old.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Just noticed


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


The Beast from the East
21 January 2021 18:11:03

Please



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Arbroath 1320
21 January 2021 18:17:17


Please



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The evolution of P1 is very similar to that in the consecutive GFS para runs before it went on vacation.


GGTTH
Zubzero
21 January 2021 18:42:25


 


NAEFS was popular here at one time but I've not seen it mentioned for years. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


NOGAPS the modern day ICON. What a run to bow out with http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=0 

Ally Pally Snowman
21 January 2021 19:06:07

Remarkable warmth on the latest ECM. 850s of 17c in Spain in January. Bonkers!


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=24#mapref


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
21 January 2021 19:10:53


Remarkable warmth on the latest ECM. 850s of 17c in Spain in January. Bonkers!


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=24#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Countered by the equivalent cold in NW Russia. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=2&model=ecm&var=34&time=216&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24 


 


KAshton
21 January 2021 19:15:57


Please


Ties in nicely with your username, might make a good profile pic that one 


Does anyone have a link to the B'ham ensembles please? or a link to the ensembles generally where you can choose the location. Thanks in advance 



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Wolverhampton
West Mids
150m ASL
doctormog
21 January 2021 19:18:44


 Does anyone have a link to the B'ham ensembles please? or a link to the ensembles generally where you can choose the location. Thanks in advance 


Originally Posted by: KAshton 


You can choose your nearest location from the list at the bottom of this page https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx 


KAshton
21 January 2021 19:22:33

Brill, thanks Doc :) 


(Can't use the smileys or my post rejects as spam)


Wolverhampton
West Mids
150m ASL
Karl Guille
21 January 2021 19:42:25
It's no wonder the parallel froze on the 0z!!
http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2021012100/gfs-1-348.png?0 

Meanwhile the GFS 12z is still suggesting a passing snow shower on my birthday on 23rd which I'd gladly bank, albeit it won't be cold enough to settle!!
http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/graphe_ens3.php?x=220.44000244140625&ext=1&y=247.8199920654297&run=12&runpara=0 

St. Sampson
Guernsey
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 January 2021 19:52:29

It's no wonder the parallel froze on the 0z!!
http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2021012100/gfs-1-348.png?0

Meanwhile the GFS 12z is still suggesting a passing snow shower on my birthday on 23rd which I'd gladly bank, albeit it won't be cold enough to settle!!
http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/graphe_ens3.php?x=220.44000244140625&ext=1&y=247.8199920654297&run=12&runpara=0

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Rob K
21 January 2021 19:53:51

A new parallel run is starting to appear on Meteociel. (Today's 6Z)


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
squish
21 January 2021 19:54:06
5 days cool/cold...5 days average to mild...5 days cooler to cold, outside chance of very cold. Never very dry. About sums it up.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Jiries
21 January 2021 19:56:57


Remarkable warmth on the latest ECM. 850s of 17c in Spain in January. Bonkers!


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=24#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I think the heat of 15-20C uppers now appearing on some bottom side of the charts lately and recently Death Valley reached new record 32C 90F for Jan which previous record was 31C 87F.  Now Spain would be looking at 30C which is amazing after deep snow and subzero temps there so that very interesting there.

Jiries
21 January 2021 20:01:02

5 days cool/cold...5 days average to mild...5 days cooler to cold, outside chance of very cold. Never very dry. About sums it up.

Originally Posted by: squish 


Yes extremely boring to me.  With the warmth in Spain occur here I like to see 17C again here like in 2003 follow by 2 inches of snow next day and subzero temps and snow stay on the ground for 2 days.

Snow Hoper
21 January 2021 20:11:05


A new parallel run is starting to appear on Meteociel. (Today's 6Z)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Been stuck like that since about 10:30 this morning.


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


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