If it gives us weather like on Caradhras, I'll be happy

So, all you guys and gals with zillions of minutes of experience, can you please explain what is going on. Even those that do this for a living are a little confused. 
Never before witnessed or recorded, well so they say. But what does it mean. If the so called paid experts have no idea, what chance do us mere mortals have. 

Agreed. Not sure when the last below average Feb CET was, but perhaps worth a punt this year, certainly couldn't ask for much better signals at this range.

It looks as though all of this afternoons op runs have been more amplified and subsequently showing colder wintrier runs. I have to admit the last 24 hours I was wondering what the hell had happened to the SSW downwelling. This now looks to be back on track with as I said a much more amplified looking hemispheric pattern. I would not be surprised to see further amplification in the coming runs from now on. May even see the first op run showing -15c uppers in the UK before the weekend is out. 

Hopefully see some snow over the weekend before the main event starts end of Jan and then on through February. Minus cet for February anyone. 

Has the 18z GFS got stuck on 18 hours? Wonder if it’s struggling with the events of Sunday down south? 😃

It was so cold it froze the server🤣

I'm expecting the weather to turn much drier as we head into next month. Where the block sits dictates what it'll feel like, but the flooding should cease for those areas currently affected.

Ups and downs, that might help you with the significance. 

Isn't it showing the warming (positive pressure anomalies) pulsing down through the atmosphere (blue lines) and then moving back up a little (yellow) before making it to the lower troposphere, with the second downwelling producing a more significant positive anomaly?

That's just my attempt at analysis of what it seems to represent.

Maybe it's been afflicted by the little-known WIO virus.

😉

Yes it is and these geopotential height anomalies are not normal. They generally only go down. What the significance is, I have absolutely no idea, but I believe this anomaly is causing some considerable issues with the models interpretation of events. 

Thankfully they found a vaccine, currently out to 192hrs.

Oh dear, hope the 18z GFS is the odd one out with next Thursday to mind. I can't be doing with another round of 70 mph gusts.

As you probably realise this isn't my specialist subject - but I thought it might be showing that the initial burst of SSW didn't have sufficient momentum to work fully down through the atmosphere? Doesn't the physics support the idea of the warming dissipating/diffusing into the surrounding area in some circumstances?

Shame the Op and the Control are totally out on their own at the extreme cold end on the 12z ensemble mean for the last two days. The mean trundles along at -3C still.

its certainly got a chill out at 342h 😱

Yes, I would say the  majority of the 18z ENS look tasty in FI. I think the control will be a significant outlier. There will be many colder members than the Op too.

Yes, the 18z ensemble mean much better indeed especially in the latter part of the run. In fact the mean has dropped dramatically to -6.3C and if that cluster becomes the dominant one that mean will certainly drop further 

Indeed the ensemble trends are continuing in the cold direction. Mentioned last week that the MJO was hunting at moving into more favourable territory. It looks as though it may have now made its mind up to become more active and move into phase 6 then probably 7. in the South this winter has felt like one of those penny falls machines in an arcade where you just need one more coin in the right place to get some cash. We shall see.

I know we’ve all been here before, so we know it’ll never happen, but the signal for cool/cold/verycold/frigid weather in the latter part of the GEFS is quite strong here.

Dont usually see the mean dip that low, at that range unless something is brewing.

GEFS 18z for the middle of England, at my location (Sorry London and other Southerners)...

8 members dip below -10c 850s. Lowest reaching -15.2c

Also the number of runs going below -5c and even -10c exceed the numbers of runs above 0c from 1st February onwards. In fact they exceed the members above -5c for the majority of the set from 4th February onwards

JFF

More JFF

It will never happen of course