Yup - to be fair, it led to some subzero maxima in the UK too, just not my little bit of it.

(In the old days in the 80s we would look for -7 or -8 in Calais etc for a comfortable subzero max here in an easterly flow, the local forecasters often mentioned it.)

I didn't see them either but notice how many ENS went down to and below -10c @ 850hpa towards then end: - It looked like we were heading into the freezer..

Then compare that with the 06z

Not a major flip but an uptick and also we have lost that Scandi high which now has a scandi low: - i guess as long as we keep some -10c uppers then I am happy.

It is. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?runpara=1 

Thanks - last I saw it was stuck at +102 on both Meteociel and Wetter but i usually use wetter - it's still stuck on there - i think i shall use Meteociel from now on then. Looking at para shows a lot of southerly tracking LP systems. 

Hoping to see the models firming up on a renewed and more potent cold spell starting a week or so from now which could usher in the start of an epic February to come. Still a fair amount of model uncertainty with regards to the energy transfer of the lows west to east as building pressure to the north forces the lows to slide, phase or disrupt. I think though this is just the start of what will be some mouth watering synoptics to come over the coming days. I will certainly be punting for a negative cet February (my Jan punt way off the mark but I put that down to slower QTR to the SSW) with lots of cold, snow and ice days to come.

Snow chances for many I hope during the next 24 to the 36 hours. Icon run coming out now, hopefully will continue the trend for much colder weather spreading south during the later stages of next weekend.

UKMO 144 has us dipping back into cold next Saturday, like the ICON. 

Martin

Yes, top man. Like his sardonic approach to life!

You mean to say you're not staying up till 1.30am to read my commentary on them. Usually first post on the page in the "morning". Lightweights 

Very different ideas from the GFS and ICON12zs

ICON12z doesn't have any mild spell at all for N england or Scotland.

It is......shhhhh!

Wasn't it the Schaf who had to duck out of the radio studio mid-forecast to throw up the morning after the office Xmas party a few years ago? 

(Also I hadn't seen him do a forecast for a while, lockdown hair ahoy!)

OK I should probably, for the sake of fairness, say that that is apparently just a "silly rumour" and he was actually genuinely ill.

Tomasz Schafernaker on Twitter: "@gjp12775 @andy_travels @tnewtondunn @BBCRadio4 @BBCr4today ...that’s simply not true. It frustrates me that some people still think that. No staff party had even taken place. I was genuinely unwell and would never put myself in the position you are implying. That’s a dismissible offence. Silly rumour!" / Twitter

Haha.... I commented on that and shared the 18z GEFS graphs (plus a few of the ensemble members charts) in the early hours of this morning, but nobody was here to bother commenting on them 😭

The subsequent 2 runs have not been as cold later on, as you have indeed noticed

That has always been a possibility.

An astonishing chart from the 12 GFS. Yes, that's an easterly jet completely encircling an anticyclone atop the North Pole.

(Of course, the UK manages to be not especially cold despite all this...)

A really confused photo and not that I like to cherry pick but the models are really all over the place - one min they show an easterly and this morning they showed a northerly and this evenings 12z we appear to pull off a south westerly despite all that Greenland and Northern blocking - As we as blocking over Scandinavia we still pull off a milder south westerly wind. How frustratingly annoying - but only a slight adjustment to this and we would be in an easterly.. I mean 1080mb's over Greenland stretching into an Arctic into the North Pole? Come on ...really?  -anyway one model one run/one chart let's hope this is a mild outlier but just sharing this chart because i have never seen such extensive northern blocking before...even during the beast from the east in February/March 2018 there wasn't this amount of northern blocking. Nice to look at anyway...so near yet so so far...

GEM is performing well and enters interesting territory in FI on the 12z

They really haven't got a clue at the moment. We go from being encouraged by one suite to something completely opposite six hours later. Another six hours and we make tracks back before it all goes pear shaped six hours after that again 

I'm finding it quite refreshing to look no further than 72 hours ahead at the moment. Not because it is the right thing to do, but more for my own sanity 

To be honest, after having seen some footage of flooding with homes collapsing in parts of the UK, I'd think we'd be better off wanting to see the end of back-to-back rain rather than scrabbling around looking for short lived marginal slop-fests in la-la land.

I'd probably get shot down for having said that but it's time to look at the bigger picture and see what really is happening.

Agreed. All still to play for IMO. It will probably be a while until we have model agreement for events in early Feb. Although some sort of northern blocking looks favoured.

I'm sure there will be plenty of scatter for t+180> in the ens.

Let's see what ecm has to offer.

Interesting times!!

Easterly muck 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m0_sea-level-pressure/20210206-0600z.html