12z GEFS update looked similar to recent ones. No decisive shift into the very cold bucket yet and I'd still favour a cold or rather cold period during the first third of Feb. Snow mostly in the north.

Thee 18z ICON out to 120.  Looks to be packed with slider lows that could bring snow (and cold rain ) on an axis aligned WNW - ESE. to the southern half of the UK. Fascinating.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=1&carte=1

Looking far ahead that really deep cold are in China and Japan covered in deep cold and the 8C uppers goes down as far to the tail shape of northern Philippines before the tropical warmth push back again. It would be classed as cold for them at 20C day time or so in north Luzon island.

Looks mild until the weekend?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=21&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=45&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=69&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=93&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=117&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_270_1.png

Nice! Loving the LP over the Med. 

As you say , hope this theme continues tomorrow. 

Ill have to try to see if I can pm the link as it seems I still cannot post links here as they get counted as spam lol

but they’re from meteociel. just follow the links on there and put your finger or click on the map to get near to your location.

or you can click on one of the preset towns. Eg London.

I did that and then experimented with the details in the web address to get LONG and LAT coordinates that best match my exact location. Took a bit of trial and error. But got pretty close. The coordinates mentioned in the ensemble graph are for about 3 miles west of me.

Brian has done a great job with getting many locations listed for ensemble charts, but my closest there is Nottingham which is about 10 miles away. So I usually go to my own customised meteociel chart

So 18z GFS ensemble back to square one, op run pretty much out on its own. All bets are off again with just random solutions from Feb 5th as it was this morning.

Just when you thought the control would follow the Op like in the 12z - it doesn't. Op is a cold outlier and the para goes milder too. Seems like we take 2 steps backwards and 1 step forwards. 

On the plus side the 18z 850hpa ENS mean for Saturday 21st Jan for London has trended colder with an average of -4.3c compared to the mean of -3.1c for the same day as shown on 12z.  

Well, the weekend is looking interesting synoptically but Id say the chances have receded this morning for something white and widespread in the south.  GEM has folded and given up its resistance to the inevitable in the longer term post the weekend, when it DID lead the way, much to its credit.

  Id say there's still a chance of something cold from the E/NE around February 7th/8th but we're well into FI again there.  Obviously its early in the model release this morning, so the GEFS and the ECM will be interesting to pore over.  

Charts looking very like 1947 with one big difference, everything is 500 miles further north.

There is plenty of cold air in place now and a good vortex ,the reason I can see why it's not all dropping south is the warm uppers in Africa are fuelling the heights to our south  acting as the major block and main  player in this set up.Very frustrating the UK being robbed of a classic after so many years of hurt and waiting. 

This is getting painful. We spend the whole day building up and the 12z dangles the carrot and then 0z takes it way. Meanwhile more days pass.

Would be nice to have some consistency.

EDIT: Actually, the 0z GFS ensembles do have a ‘look’ about them.

They look flattish, I’ve often found when they start to look like that, something interesting could happen. Quite a few runs in the -10 850 range.

More runs needed.

Went to bed last night having seen the BBC being quite bullish about battleground snow in the south but this morning's charts suggest the necessary cold air will stay further east and there's a push for mildness from the south with HP stronger over France.

GFS in the longer term shows depressions from the Atlantic moving to/across the UK on rather more southerly tracks than yesterday, and being deflected southwards e.g. Sat 30th (a quick pass)Tue 2nd - Thu 4th (hangs around). In the following week (Wed 10th) a rather deeper LP manages to cross the UK to develop a trough from mid-Atlantic to Baltic.

GEFS for the S gradually becoming cooler to Sun 7th though not far from norm with plenty of rain but a very wide range of runs thereafter. As you go further N and into Scotland there is a colder and drier spell to  start with before coming back to norm with rain from about Tue 2nd. Just as chaotic after the 7th, though

ECM also runs with the theme of continuing LP over the UK but keeps the main centre further NW with troughs extending in the direction of Britain

great update looks like the easterly has legs, still need luck but a cold continent would change everything 

Does it ?

That's not how I read it yesterday 

I agree, I don't think it does. I think this is the latest update:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Feb 2021 to Wednesday 24 Feb 2021:

Although confidence at this range is low, current signals suggest that high pressure could be positioned over the north of the UK during this period. This would likely bring wintry outbreaks and colder than average temperatures to northern areas, as well as increasing the likelihood of more widespread cold spells. Any periods of milder, unsettled weather are more likely to be confined to central and southern areas, where greater than average rainfall is predicted. There is a continued risk of significant snowfall events on the boundary between colder and milder airmasses, with snow possible to low elevations.

Eastelies might be inferred by the reference to high pressure over the North of the UK, but I'd say 'confidence at this range is low' is the key part of the update. 

Easterlies across Shetland then ? Great lol 

I read it as increased likelihood of cold easterly winds across the northern half, dryer here as closer to High Pressure.  Southern areas, low pressure moving up which may produce wet and milder weather at times and some significant snowfall on the boundary.  So perhaps not an optimum easterly set up the main East to West winds being further north than you would really want.

However it is only a predication and if some people are interpreting this to mean a classic easterly throughout February they are bound to be very disappointed!

No, that would be high pressure north of the UK. High pressure over the north of the UK would at face value give anticyclonic conditions up here and some form of easterly over the south.

But equally it could be HP to the North of the UK with Northerly winds and further South the Atlantic has more of an influence and where the two meet BINGO 

Anyway no doubt will change again in the next day or so