theweatheroutlook

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llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
26 January 2021 12:40:29

Many have seen some winter weather so far, some more than others.


What do the remaining 5 weeks have on offer then? 

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Rob K
26 January 2021 12:43:38

2012? Were the last 9 years a bad dream?

Looking at the 6Z GEFS, the uncertainty from Jan 30th (Saturday) is if anything greater than it was yesterday!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Robertski
26 January 2021 12:45:04


Many have seen some winter weather so far, some more than others.


What do the remaining 5 weeks have on offer then? 


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


I imagine a bit of everything, models all over the shop, atmosphere behaving erratically due to ssw with yet another weak one possible. All interesting stuff.


 

Saint Snow
26 January 2021 12:53:43


2012? Were the last 9 years a bad dream?


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


From June 2016 it has 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Whether Idle
26 January 2021 13:32:05

If the GEM has the synoptic solution about right then snow is a possibility in the south between Saturday evening and Monday morning.


Something will have to give soon in model land, its usually the coldest option is the one that usually gets booted out when FI is so close at hand but Im sticking my wishful thinking neck out to say that a GEM-ish solution will win out for the weekend.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
tallyho_83
26 January 2021 13:51:37


If the GEM has the synoptic solution about right then snow is a possibility in the south between Saturday evening and Monday morning.


Something will have to give soon in model land, its usually the coldest option is the one that usually gets booted out when FI is so close at hand but Im sticking my wishful thinking neck out to say that a GEM-ish solution will win out for the weekend.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Scenes like this south of M4 then - yes!? But could be cold rain.


No description available.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


CField
26 January 2021 13:51:47

I remember in 1985 on a saturday in mid February , the night before the BBC forecasted rain and temps min +3 Fri night and +7 day temp and woke up to a snowstorm where everything walls etc were plastered in snow.After a wet snow start by end of day there was a foot level  snow in Hastings. Highly possible a similar situation could arise ?

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
roadrunnerajn
26 January 2021 14:00:32


I remember in 1985 on a saturday in mid February , the night before the BBC forecasted rain and temps min +3 Fri night and +7 day temp and woke up to a snowstorm where everything walls etc were plastered in snow.After a wet snow start by end of day there was a foot level  snow in Hastings. Highly possible a similar situation could arise ?


Originally Posted by: CField 


Yes the start of half term and I was going on a school ski trip. It took us 8 hours to get from Derbyshire to Luton airport only to find our plane had landed at Gatwick due to the snow. 24 hrs later we arrived at the resort.

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
UncleAlbert
26 January 2021 14:24:00
Neil said:

Well according to Matt H we have strengthening MJO into P7 that analogues suggest improves our chances of cold from 7th Feb.
In my humble opinion I’ve got more chance of catching a cold at B&Q than MJO, NAO, COD etc bringing the cold 😉


You have some chance then.... if some of the social distancing around our area is anything to go by!
Heavy Weather 2013
26 January 2021 15:02:33
I really want a nice flip in the 12z ensembles please
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
26 January 2021 15:42:18

I really want a nice flip in the 12z ensembles please

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


A flip to a milder weather outlook?

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Darren S
26 January 2021 15:42:53


I remember in 1985 on a saturday in mid February , the night before the BBC forecasted rain and temps min +3 Fri night and +7 day temp and woke up to a snowstorm where everything walls etc were plastered in snow.After a wet snow start by end of day there was a foot level  snow in Hastings. Highly possible a similar situation could arise ?


Originally Posted by: CField 


Sadly not because weather forecasts are far more accurate now than they were 35 years ago. 

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Rob K
26 January 2021 16:04:48

Just 96 hours away this really wouldn't take much of a tweak to bring some surprise snowfall.


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
26 January 2021 16:07:41


Just 96 hours away this really wouldn't take much of a tweak to bring some surprise snowfall.


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


C Fawkes has just said " slight change in wind direction could give us slow "

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
26 January 2021 16:09:16


Just 96 hours away this really wouldn't take much of a tweak to bring some surprise snowfall.


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The high res GFS has the rain band turning to snow on it's leading edge before it retreats away south. ICON keeps the precipitation south of the UK.


Sunday afternoon looks more interesting, albeit transient for most.  GFS and ICON both suggest snow moving slowly east followed by rain.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


nsrobins
26 January 2021 16:14:38


 


The high res GFS has the rain band turning to snow on it's leading edge before it retreats away south. ICON keeps the precipitation south of the UK.


Sunday afternoon looks more interesting, albeit transient for most.  GFS and ICON both suggest snow moving slowly east followed by rain.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


If it wasn’t for the quasi-permanent high over Spain we’d all be buried by now.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gandalf The White
26 January 2021 16:21:03


 


If it wasn’t for the quasi-permanent high over Spain we’d all be buried by now.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


I wonder just how far north the battleground has shifted because of that higher pressure?   So many variables involved that it's probably impossible to answer but, as you imply, it can't have helped.


But, glass half full and all that, still over a third of winter to go, plus whatever might be squeezed out of early March.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballamar
26 January 2021 16:30:53
GFS cracking run so far is the tide turning and models picking up on some height rises
marting
26 January 2021 16:31:18
The current GFS op run is a very good match for the METO longer range forecast today with high pressure to the North
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=222&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3 
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Brian Gaze
26 January 2021 16:32:07

Slowly, slowly catchy monkey! 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
26 January 2021 16:32:28

The current GFS op run is a very good match for the METO longer range forecast today with high pressure to the North
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=222&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 


 


Just about to write the same thing . Easterly incoming.  216h

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
squish
26 January 2021 16:32:38
Decent 12z in the longer term... and GEM sticking to its guns
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
doctormog
26 January 2021 16:33:47

The current GFS op run is a very good match for the METO longer range forecast today with high pressure to the North
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=222&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 


Yes, it is an interesting run so far. I wonder how it will fit in the rest of the day's output.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Laths
26 January 2021 16:39:52
Another tease 12z from GFS In FI land.
John
Wallington
Surrey
(London Borough of Sutton)
squish
26 January 2021 16:39:53
Looks like the parallel will go the same way, and is very similar to GEM. Arctic ridging looking very promising
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

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