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Is there no end to this easterly influence? The ECM seems to be on board for this scenario too.
Originally Posted by: doctormog
I thought you want snow as Aberdeen usually misses out?
Look at that heat building over the Mediterranean. I'd say we southernmost southerners have more chance of tapping into that then sub -10C 850's from Scandinavia
Originally Posted by: picturesareme
I would agree.
I now understand how the north must feel in summer when we in the south are enduring weeks of heat. On the map the distance appears so small, in reality we may as well be on different continents.
Well a full house of easterlies but just look at the temp gradient. +15c in Sardinia-15c in Denmark
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Well after dozens of runs showing this and none verifying - let's hope this one comes off and see if the 18z follows the ECM.
Originally Posted by: Gusty
😆 so true. And with all this rain we're having down here at least we can say we've had a taste of a northern summer.
Bet it doesn't breach the Hampshire one though. The southern flank of the Hampshire snow shield is one of the best in Europe I'd wager.. it's northern being close to 50 miles inland and nearer to that poxy M4 corridor is little weak though.
The northern edge of the Hampshire snow shield let through 7cm on Sunday. The last stump of the snowman only gave up the ghost this afternoon.
Arguably the best set of 12s of the entire winter with snowy sliders and then easterlies.
Regarding the ECM the south is heading to the freezer if we could have seen day 11 onwards
Big snow for Eastern Scotland & Glasgow if the latter stages of ECM verify.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_2.png
If the showers line up well then Aberdeen would join the party too. There would be no rain.
Frigid air spilling out of Scandinavia across the warm North Sea is one of the UK’s biggest snow makers, especially as showers filter up the Forth Clyde valleys.
We'll probably end up with another 20C heatwave in February if that trend continues.
ECM has a big snow event M4 north upto Manchester across to Norwich 5cm to 15cm widely . Only 72h
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=72&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref
One to watch that's for sure
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20210130-1200z.html
Originally Posted by: Zubzero
Yes it's good for our bit of the world we deserve a bit of luck. It's quite marginal so no guarantees.
Time for Darren to roll out the ensemble watch again! Or maybe wait for the 0z lol
Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013
If it helps there are 20 ensemble members that reach -10 (t850hPa) here on the latest GEFS suite. Some of the colder options are, wait for it, almost cold enough for snow here despite the easterly influence.
Unfortunately the more extreme options are usually the less likely ones.
At a glance the ECM ensemble data seem quite supportive of the op run this evening
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png
How do you get to see precip / accumulations on that map?
I can only see options for 850s etc
One can dream .....😴
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/legacy/run/gens-12-1-240.png
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/legacy/run/gens-19-1-240.png
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-5-1-300.png
http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-4-1-300.png
http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-384.png
Originally Posted by: JRobinson
Hello you can view the ECM precipitation charts and a lot more from here
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/precipitation-1h/20210127-2100z.html
Go to snow depth inches. Saturday afternoon . In change parameters.
ECM clusters have moved significantly towards easterlies tonight as have th3 15 day ensembles and wind directions
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/cluster_plot_legA?base_time=202101271200&cluster=264_360¶meter=1000
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021012712,0,2021012712&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=53.2&lon=-2.91667&station_name=Chester,%20United%20Kingdom&altitude=12
Martin
Originally Posted by: marting
I know Steve (Gusty)likes these charts and pays a lot of attention to them. He will be happy
Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly
Wouldn't put it past it.
ECM ens mean. looksblocked
Well done to GEM for being the first to pick this up, of course it could all yet go wrong
Gefs look potentially cold from around the 4th Feb..think personally this is a date to watch from there out...
Originally Posted by: marco 79
I have been saying for a few days that if 4th Feb still looks cold by the end of this week then it could be game on.
London does ok about 5cm ish obviously long way to go but good to see.
ECM has another big snow event at 144 this one further north from about Midlands north.
we should be looking at consistency at 144 and watch for pressure dropping over the Med. I’m still holding out for a decent easterly 2nd week of Feb.
Thanks very much 👍🏼