theweatheroutlook

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tallyho_83
28 January 2021 19:29:03


 


Yes, the latter part of the ECM 12z run looks very much like it's given up trying to predict what's going to happen next. The 240z chart in particular just looks very strange:


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


ECM @ 240 on 00z run from N. Hemisphere notice the High pressure over the N. Pole as well?



ECM @ 240z on the latest 12z run: - Notice the Low pressure right over the N. Pole - (the opposite).



 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Ally Pally Snowman
28 January 2021 19:32:48


That could lead to some serious ⚡⛈🌩 and 🌪🌪🌪 somewhere in Europe.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I was thinking that could be some American style storms on the way somewhere.  The heat is extraordinary for early February god knows what southern Europe will be like in July/August. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
28 January 2021 19:37:38


 


I was thinking that could be some American style storms on the way somewhere.  The heat is extraordinary for early February god knows what southern Europe will be like in July/August. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


My thinking too as the heat seem to be very impatient to get in early for some reason.

ballamar
28 January 2021 19:40:05
ECM has a look of struggling with the effect of the warming. Will be looking forward to Saturday/Sunday to see how accurate things are being forecast. The route the sinking low takes is all important and how quickly after Monday
marting
28 January 2021 19:49:07

The ECM mean at day 10 looks okay to me a solid easterly pattern.


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24


Martin

Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
doctormog
28 January 2021 20:00:26


The ECM mean at day 10 looks okay to me a solid easterly pattern.


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24


Martin


Originally Posted by: marting 


Yes, the op run was on the milder side of average after the 2nd of Feb up here. Before that point it was quite representative.


 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=0&y=0&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25&runpara=0 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
28 January 2021 20:01:35


The ECM mean at day 10 looks okay to me a solid easterly pattern.


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24


Martin


Originally Posted by: marting 


 


Yes great ECM mean tonight very solidly easterly by 168h nudging colder as well. Easterly looks almost certain question is how cold.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
dagspot
28 January 2021 20:05:03
yet some are saying ‘tally-ho’ to cold and easterlies? I don't know if i'm coming or going....
Neilston 600ft ASL
tallyho_83
28 January 2021 20:06:42


 


 


Yes great ECM mean tonight very solidly easterly by 168h nudging colder as well. Easterly looks almost certain question is how cold.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Except the ECM operational?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
28 January 2021 20:08:59

yet some are saying ‘tally-ho’ to cold and easterlies? I don't know if i'm coming or going....

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


An easterly looks as likely in the coming days/weeks as it has done at any time in the last couple of days (and this from someone who really would rather it wasn’t the case).


As ever, there have been changes in the op runs, but overall the picture is variations on an easterly them. 


How cold, is a different matter.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
doctormog
28 January 2021 20:10:00


 


Except the ECM operational?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

That is why he said the mean?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
tallyho_83
28 January 2021 20:15:59

Just flicked through the ECM ...

240z ends with milder south westerly's - is this a blip in the model or a sign of things to come? ENS have trended milder too.

Has anyone notice that the closer we get to the more reliable time frame - the more uncertainty the models show when in actual fact it should be the exact opposite?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Does anyone know how to access the other ECM ENS members? - Seeing as the ECM Op is a milder outlier at day 10.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
28 January 2021 20:20:31


 


Does anyone know how to access the other ECM ENS members? - Seeing as the ECM Op is a milder outlier at day 10.



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


You can use the “Switch members” option here https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/temperature/20210128-2100z.html 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
28 January 2021 20:25:44


 


Except the ECM operational?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Yes the Op was a bit of an outlier one for the bin I think.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
28 January 2021 20:27:23
😂😂 Makes me laugh how some folk STILL have their hair-trigger response to each Operational in isolation... followed by U-turn in mood when someone with experience sets things straight.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
28 January 2021 21:01:21


Incredible heat to our south and incredible cold to our north. I dont think I've ever seen such extremes before. 


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It reached 29C today in Alicante. Must be close to a record for January, even in mainland Spain! 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Hippydave
28 January 2021 21:04:06

ECM ens are much as they have been from what I can see although there are some properly colder members showing towards the end.


Mid term and looking at all the main models there's a reasonable chance of an easterly of some description although as the scatter in the GFS and ECM ens there's a decent chance of mild or even very mild down here too.


Interesting but a few days of waiting and the cold signal to strengthen before it gets too interesting IMBY


ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Ally Pally Snowman
28 January 2021 21:13:18


 


It reached 29C today in Alicante. Must be close to a record for January, even in mainland Spain! 


Originally Posted by: GezM 


Crazy warm about 12c above average, more excessive warmth to come for southern  Europe by the looks of it.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DPower
28 January 2021 21:15:29


 


A bit too optimistic if you ask me... 


Originally Posted by: dagspot 


Nah lol. Of course it could I suppose still go titicus verticus but I have never been more confident of a UK wide deepfreeze ( at least 10 days) probably a fair bit longer than when the beast hit in Feb 18. I was surprised at the shortness of that one although it did come back for a second bite of the cherry middle of March.


I have been following the downwelling through the various layers of the atmosphere on the ESRL daily composite website https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/  the same as I did back in Feb 18 and am very confident of a very memorable February to come.

Zubzero
28 January 2021 22:02:22


 


Nah lol. Of course it could I suppose still go titicus verticus but I have never been more confident of a UK wide deepfreeze ( at least 10 days) probably a fair bit longer than when the beast hit in Feb 18. I was surprised at the shortness of that one although it did come back for a second bite of the cherry middle of March.


I have been following the downwelling through the various layers of the atmosphere on the ESRL daily composite website https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/  the same as I did back in Feb 18 and am very confident of a very memorable February to come.


Originally Posted by: DPower 


You have been signaling this for sometime its possible, but I'd be very careful when mentioning "very confident or memorable" cold for the UK from the east @ t48 let alone T 168+

Saint Snow
28 January 2021 22:04:12

Very confident 


 


 


 


(reminds me of someone....) 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Zubzero
28 January 2021 22:15:48


Very confident 


 


 


 


(reminds me of someone....) 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Classic, we need a like feature 👍

fairweather
28 January 2021 22:16:05

😂😂 Makes me laugh how some folk STILL have their hair-trigger response to each Operational in isolation... followed by U-turn in mood when someone with experience sets things straight.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
ballamar
28 January 2021 23:27:01
Well the 18z op run brought countrywide cold and with that snow opportunities. Very quiet in here!!
tallyho_83
28 January 2021 23:33:21
Just curious - does anyone know if the models which are picking up on this blocking and easterly that is shown on the 18z Op/control run is the response to the SSW we had back on 5th January and or to the second warming? Or both?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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