GFS rolling.
If you catch it now and toggle between current at 156 and previous it illustrates the difference more influence from the AH makes. No room for energy to squeeze through around Svalbard and you have a clean long run NE flow going forward instead of a slow local sinker.
Could be a notable cold run from here.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

GFS rolling.
If you catch it now and toggle between current at 156 and previous it illustrates the difference more influence from the AH makes. No room for energy to squeeze through around Svalbard and you have a clean long run NE flow going forward instead of a slow local sinker.
Could be a notable cold run from here.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Azores high is such a pest. Disappears in summer and you can’t get rid in winter. Anyways here is to a cold run on the 06z

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

You have to say that the chances for northern Britain for decent cold and proper snow opportunities in the mid to long term are fantastic. For the far SE of England I'm more drawn to the amount of rainfall that could fall over the next week to 10 days. 

For the Midlands northwards this is shaping up to be quite a memorable winter.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

You have to say that the chances for northern Britain for decent cold and proper snow opportunities in the mid to long term are fantastic. For the far SE of England I'm more drawn to the amount of rainfall that could fall over the next week to 10 days. 

For the Midlands northwards this is shaping up to be quite a memorable winter.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Azores high is such a pest. Disappears in summer and you can’t get rid in winter. Anyways here is to a cold run on the 06z

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

You have to say that the chances for northern Britain for decent cold and proper snow opportunities in the mid to long term are fantastic. For the far SE of England I'm more drawn to the amount of rainfall that could fall over the next week to 10 days. 

For the Midlands northwards this is shaping up to be quite a memorable winter.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Got to be honest and say the foundations of this look quite shaky to me.  The modelling in the run up to 2009, 2010 and 2018 was more consistent. Clearly the cold block will come into play during the next 10 days.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The vortex fights back on the GFS op run and it looks like a fairly short lived cold spell.

(Incidentally it always make me laugh when the media latch onto that word and make it sound like the PV is something that visits the UK and gives us cold weather. Generally we want it to sod off as far away as possible!)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Never underestimate the power of the Met Office issuing a cold update to their 16-day forecast to fire up the jet.

Perhaps in future we should ignore the AO, MJO, QBO etc and just focus on the ELR index (Exeter Long Ranger)? There’s a near perfect inverse correlation to the UK weather.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

GFS op keeps on consistently showing a fairly light weight cold snap and giving way after 2-4 days -but look at the average - not seen such prolonged cold, so far south, since 2010 and before that 1991. ECM is very snowy  but there are so may eye candy runs now - and the GFS control is a peach. Look back to the run up to 2018 BftE and you would see the same perturbations, same rollercoaster ride, but now I do think the gentle ramp is justified. We are in for something winter dreams are truly about. 

Was this caused by the 1st or 2nd SSW? That is the question. It’s 4 weeks after the 1st and SSWs are supposed to be 3-4 weeks before affecting the troposphere’s weather factory. If the 1st, then are we in for a longer ride as the two combined deliver the dream Feb- dreams, nostalgic memories of the 60s, and legendary cold periods are all made of? Is this going to be the new 1947, but starting 2 weeks later? Hope so, because for decades after, we shall say - ‘winter is never over until after Feb 5th’, remember 2021. Might not be Lorna Doone but one to remember....

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

 I can't help thinking that if this had happened 50 years ago things would have been different. The background level of warmth and higher heights to the south have interfered with what would have been a memorable winter UK wide. Obviously that's speculative on my part.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze