theweatheroutlook

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Snow Hoper
09 February 2021 15:29:26


strangely enough no “ winter is over “ posts for a few weeks 🤣🤣🤣🤣


Originally Posted by: MRayner 


Some would have you believe it still hadn't started. I cant tell who said it first as they are all on ignore.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Rob K
09 February 2021 15:57:45

ARPEGE 12Z has -14C 850mb air still in the east on Saturday morning.



Precipitation not making much inroads into the SW by the end of the run.


 


GFS also has much colder air into the east than the previous run at this stage, with rain/snow much further west.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
squish
09 February 2021 16:02:30
12z has the cold air much further west by 12z Saturday. Very much depends on a slight tweak in the flow.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
09 February 2021 16:05:41

Sunday evening, snow arrives in the west 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
squish
09 February 2021 16:09:36
Its actually still -10c over the highlands at +132 despite 2/3 days of ss'e'lies
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
09 February 2021 16:18:18

UKMO looks like it's going to roll over the top by 144hrs though. ICON does the same and sinks the high in the end... but not before a good snowfall for the SW


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
09 February 2021 16:27:56

By contrast GEM has the Atlantic on steroids and blasting right through by Sunday morning



 


Shame the idea of the low sliding underneath seems to have been dropped across the board. It looked favourite at one stage a couple of days ago but pressure over Spain is, as ever, conspiring against us.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
09 February 2021 16:36:23
Don’t park your bum on the zonal train - I have a sneaking suspicion it might be delayed for a while yet.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
squish
09 February 2021 16:39:29
I agree Neil. The GFS doesn't really progress the Atlantic and it will no doubt be quite cold at the surface in the east if there is any continental influence from the flow. Also a new high building to the NE at the run progresses.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Saint Snow
09 February 2021 16:46:22


By contrast GEM has the Atlantic on steroids and blasting right through by Sunday morning



 


Shame the idea of the low sliding underneath seems to have been dropped across the board. It looked favourite at one stage a couple of days ago but pressure over Spain is, as ever, conspiring against us.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


You'd bet good money on energy sliding SE'wards from that set-up.


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
09 February 2021 16:52:25

GEFS mean really slow to shift the cold air... this is Tuesday


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
squish
09 February 2021 16:52:48
At a quick flick through about 45/50% of GEFS still have a cold flow and block at +144. Run 20 looks interesting!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
09 February 2021 16:54:38

Operational run - the Beast is still roaring but it's caged up for now.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
squish
09 February 2021 16:56:22
...and run 28.

Although the consensus has to be that the Atlantic air will win in the west at least for a few days next week.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
09 February 2021 17:00:25
I think the key is around +120/132 . If a portion of the Atlantic splits off the main vortex and dives SE then its game on. If this 'leader' low spins back into the main vortex its hard for the block to stop sinking before the next bash. Probably quite a fine line although if the operational spin it back northwards rather than splitting it SE then they have the nod for now.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Saint Snow
09 February 2021 17:00:54

I need the Atlantic to sort of initially win, so we get the frontal snow from the SW, but not totally win, with the block holding it at bay over the UK, before the block wins out.


Typing that reminds me of every Rocky film script - the 'baddie' (represented in this case by the mild & wet Atlantic low) battering the 'goodie' (the cold block) back to the ropes, before the 'goodie' finds that second wind and ultimately wins.


Hazaar! 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
09 February 2021 17:15:27


I need the Atlantic to sort of initially win, so we get the frontal snow from the SW, but not totally win, with the block holding it at bay over the UK, before the block wins out.


Typing that reminds me of every Rocky film script - the 'baddie' (represented in this case by the mild & wet Atlantic low) battering the 'goodie' (the cold block) back to the ropes, before the 'goodie' finds that second wind and ultimately wins.


Hazaar! 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I'm guessing you are watching Catherine the great too...


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
09 February 2021 17:22:39

Chart image


 


Chart image


Chart image


Chart image


Chart image


I'd take this NOW 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
09 February 2021 17:24:37

Big upgrade on the cold on the 12z GEFS for London at least...


Animation shows 0z, 6z and then lingers on the 12z, before repeating. Click for full-size.


Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
09 February 2021 17:29:10


 


I'm guessing you are watching Catherine the great too...


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 



Er... no


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
09 February 2021 17:29:14


Big upgrade on the cold on the 12z GEFS for London at least...


Animation shows 0z, 6z and then lingers on the 12z, before repeating. Click for full-size.



Originally Posted by: Retron 


Nice illustration. I like the trendsetting run on the 12Z, just scoping out the territory before calling the rest of the pack to join it 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
09 February 2021 17:30:14


Chart image


 


Chart image


Chart image


Chart image


Chart image


I'd take this NOW 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


 


Yes.


BANK!


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
tallyho_83
09 February 2021 17:33:43


Sunday evening, snow arrives in the west 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


If it makes it - we failed in that channel low today and looks like the front on Thursday night into Friday will decay and just 'evaporate' - so don't see the chances of it happening Sunday...keeps getting pushed back. I think it looks like we will have to settle with flurries or dustings at best. Or if you're in Exeter - flakes of snow and light snow for 10 minutes followed by snow grains. All a bit 'gig gang goolie' snow.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Sevendust
09 February 2021 17:33:47

Slightly O/T but it keeps being mentioned.


Vanishing snow in easterly winds is simply sublimation (evaporation from solid to vapour)


I first noticed this in January 1976 during a bitterly cold spell of south-easterlies after snow some days earlier.


Strong dry sub-zero winds are a feature of this set-up.

tallyho_83
09 February 2021 17:35:55


UKMO looks like it's going to roll over the top by 144hrs though. ICON does the same and sinks the high in the end... but not before a good snowfall for the SW



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Missed this one - thanks for sharing Rob - let's hope so but not holding my breath.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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