theweatheroutlook

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squish
10 February 2021 12:17:25
Nice to see the parallel back with a tasty op in the short/medium term . GEFS also show a good block re-establishing in many runs.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Saint Snow
10 February 2021 12:23:23


 


One of best snowy breakdowns of recent times around here was the 25th January 2013 one. Snowed heavily that Friday night, chaos on the M6 around Wigan and the snow was still on the ground until the following Saturday afternoon.


A lot of cold spells don't end with a snowy breakdown. December 2010 didn't here, the great snow of 5th/6th February 1996, that wasn't folllowed by a snowy breakdown. No snowy breakdown to the early January 1997 cold spell...


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


I've never really viewed the 25th Jan 13 as a snowy breakdown, but I guess it was the end of a briefish cold snap. It was fantastic here - I've still got some screengrabs from traffic cams on the M62 and M6 near here, which showed the fantastic conditions (one is possibly my favourite snow pic ever!). I'll try and dig them out. The snow was still on the ground here a couple of days.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
10 February 2021 12:33:46
The latest model performance stats show a general worsening in the last week at Day 8: down to around 60-70%, 10 points worse than the middle of January.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png 

Probably worth being in mind when trying to decipher what's coming next week.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Joe Bloggs
10 February 2021 12:36:31


 


One of best snowy breakdowns of recent times around here was the 25th January 2013 one. Snowed heavily that Friday night, chaos on the M6 around Wigan and the snow was still on the ground until the following Saturday afternoon.


A lot of cold spells don't end with a snowy breakdown. December 2010 didn't here, the great snow of 5th/6th February 1996, that wasn't folllowed by a snowy breakdown. No snowy breakdown to the early January 1997 cold spell...


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Just goes to show how localised these things are - 25th January 2013 was bobbins here. Upper air temps rose above freezing and the snow turned to sleet and ice pellets very quickly. 


Sorry off topic. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Saint Snow
10 February 2021 12:46:03


 


Just goes to show how localised these things are - 25th January 2013 was bobbins here. Upper air temps rose above freezing and the snow turned to sleet and ice pellets very quickly. 


Sorry off topic. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


A really weird one, to have cold in the west of the region and mild in the east.


It was much heavier snow than forecast, and caused traffic chaos that Friday evening. Here's the traffic cam pic I mentioned. Can you spot what's wrong in the picture? 



 


The M6 was closed as there was a complete snarl-up after the next junction. We had level snow around 15cm.


We also had a fall the preceding Friday, although not as deep (10cm'ish), which Manchester also missed out on. My boss (lived near Davyhulme Golf Club) had barely any snow and didn't believe me either time until I showed him the pics. 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Joe Bloggs
10 February 2021 13:01:05


 


 


A really weird one, to have cold in the west of the region and mild in the east.


It was much heavier snow than forecast, and caused traffic chaos that Friday evening. Here's the traffic cam pic I mentioned. Can you spot what's wrong in the picture? 



 


The M6 was closed as there was a complete snarl-up after the next junction. We had level snow around 15cm.


We also had a fall the preceding Friday, although not as deep (10cm'ish), which Manchester also missed out on. My boss (lived near Davyhulme Golf Club) had barely any snow and didn't believe me either time until I showed him the pics. 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Brilliant pic Saint. Your boss had the same issue as me - we were under a rain shadow from the Pennines for all of your 2013 snow events. We had virtually no snow that winter here. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Rob K
10 February 2021 13:01:32

Late Feb repeat anyone?


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
MRayner
10 February 2021 13:05:41


 


Yes, I noticed that and was wondering if it was associated with the same little system.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


interesting indeed, no mention of snow on the BBC forecast app for anywhere in Moray, yet a warning ? At least it’s showing sleet showers at 0C for Aberdeen airport on Friday 😄, all very strange. 

Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
Quantum
10 February 2021 13:07:38

GEM6Z is an upgrade on the 0Z.



vs


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
10 February 2021 13:09:52


 


interesting indeed, no mention of snow on the BBC forecast app for anywhere in Moray, yet a warning ? At least it’s showing sleet showers at 0C for Aberdeen airport on Friday 😄, all very strange. 


Originally Posted by: MRayner 


 


Yes, that is a bit of worry (that the milder t850s of around -9ºC to -11ºC on some of the models) and may mean sleet is more likely than snow. If that was the case I would rather it stayed sunny. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Quantum
10 February 2021 13:15:23

In terms of blue vs yellow airmass. On saturday at 6pm the line is in NE Sommerset, Central Wales and central NI for the 0Z.


On the 6Z its far SW cornwall, western Ireland.


Cold airmass is shifted 200+ miles further SW on the 6Z GEM compared to the 0Z GEM at T+84/90 hours.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
10 February 2021 13:18:01


Late Feb repeat anyone?



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I'm up for some warmth now tbh. Hoping the +10c run verifies.  

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Robertski
10 February 2021 13:22:51


 


 


I'm up for some warmth now tbh. Hoping the +10c run verifies.  


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Light weight, im hoping winter keeps going until its time for springwink

Ally Pally Snowman
10 February 2021 13:28:41


 


Light weight, im hoping winter keeps going until its time for springwink


Originally Posted by: Robertski 


It's not been a bad spell here 5cm at peak. Sledging with the kids ,snowman built etc. But the charts looked a lot more promising.  And the fact the snow has melted so readily in such cold temperatures was a irritating surprise.  A late February freeze will have to be pretty extreme to deliver here, obviously not impossible but unlikely. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
warrenb
10 February 2021 13:54:21
As for the melting of the snow (I know I brought it up again), this is due to the high level of groundwater at present due to ground saturation because of all the rain leading up to the cold snap. The groundwater acts like a giant storage heater (exacerbated by the nice and sunny days before the snap). That is why it settles on grass which is free from the ground, but paths and roads and if you look freshly plowed or non grass fields it is melting.
Tonbridge 45m 
Saint Snow
10 February 2021 14:02:27

As for the melting of the snow (I know I brought it up again), this is due to the high level of groundwater at present due to ground saturation because of all the rain leading up to the cold snap. The groundwater acts like a giant storage heater (exacerbated by the nice and sunny days before the snap). That is why it settles on grass which is free from the ground, but paths and roads and if you look freshly plowed or non grass fields it is melting.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


 


 


I was just thinking to myself, "What this thread really needs is another theory to explain the rapid snow meltage"


 



 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
backtobasics
10 February 2021 14:04:41


 


 


 


I was just thinking to myself, "What this thread really needs is another theory to explain the rapid snow meltage"


 



 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


😂😂

Rob K
10 February 2021 14:17:05

CFS extended keeps us in the freezer for another month or two


This is 552 hours so just about into the realms of the unreliable 



 


No early spring here.... 1074 hours and still cold:



 


Well worth a run through for comedy value: Meteociel - Modèle Numérique américain CFS

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
10 February 2021 14:29:24

The 9-month version keeps the block going until April.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
10 February 2021 14:35:54
(Met Office update) Mild weather set to return next week though it might remain closer to average towards the northeast. Snow will become largely confined to high ground. Towards the end of the month it might once again become cold with snow in the south.

Looking like GEM was once again on it.. GFS away in lala land as per usual.
Hungry Tiger
10 February 2021 14:59:31


The 9-month version keeps the block going until April.



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Sounds right to me - Never be surprised if we got a cold March.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


squish
10 February 2021 15:21:34
The longer range meto is an upgrade. the 5-14 day pretty much follows what we can see in the GEFS . Gem has been way too progressive in its last few ops. IMHO
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
10 February 2021 15:55:23
12Z ICON and ARPEGE both make short work of the block, quick Atlantic victory.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
10 February 2021 15:57:36
GFS slightly better WAA for a Scandi high - see if it gets blown away !
doctormog
10 February 2021 15:58:39

12Z ICON and ARPEGE both make short work of the block, quick Atlantic victory.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes, the ICON run does but the Arpege model much less so (as far as I can see).

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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