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12Z para is particularly interesting.
Mild air never reaches the SE for the GFS op
The GFS para is great.
Mild air never arrives at all.
By 144h source is Germany/Poland/W Russia for everywhere except the SW and NI.
850s are still <0 so snowfall is still possible.
GFS12z does it too, just takes longer and mild air mixes out surface cold for most parts except the SE.
Buckle down folks, it ain't over yet.
GEM is a massive upgrade on the 0Z and probably the 6Z too.
Heads down!
DEEP COLD RETURNS. WITH A DIRECT PATH TO THE -20C UPPERS!!!!
Originally Posted by: Quantum
Parallel repels two attacks from the Atlantic and leaves some snow for many in the west.
Para going for a true Beast as early as this time next week.
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=1&runpara=1
OK so this might be crazy but that shortwave could become a medicane.
Conditions are prime for it.
For medicanes FI is literally 12 hours.
And medicanes have an outflow, so they do interact with the environment.Could a medicane save us?
LOLOLOLOLOLOL
The parallel is astounding -16 850s into EA by +180!
Originally Posted by: squish
Indeed. Madness!
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=1&runpara=1&carte=6
Such drama. And at the same time I’m watching a blob crossing over the hills.
What exciting lives we lead. 😂😂😂
Yes it is interesting but it (GFSP/v16) is not even an operational model yet. I would take such evolutions with a huge pinch of salt. The breakdown this weekend is still on course (slowly) to something less cold. It may, further down the line, get cold again but there’s a lot of water/snow melt to pass under the bridge first.
Originally Posted by: doctormog
Yeah sensible approach. I wont dismiss it, but equally I'm not buying into either.
The old GFS just 30c warmer .
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&time=279&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
I fully expect it is on the money. Feeling confident!
what’s the uturn to? I’m seeing quite a few different meto forecasts on their different channels 😂
Pretty much a total u-turn on the UKM extended over just three issues. That didn’t take long.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
You left out ==>
It will be interesting as ever to see what the ECM 12z shows. If it is remotely like the GFSP I will raise one perhaps even two eyebrows.
Having snow falling on snow presently is giving me a boost. I think the models are going to bring severe cold back before the last week of the month, maybe sooner a la //.
Fingers crossed and I am glad to hear you have snow falling.
Originally Posted by: MStewart
Early period UKM text. More or less removed all reference to easterly type now, and they’re probably quite right given the significant majority of output brings the Atlantic in next week.
If the GFS parallel is right I’ll eat the contents of my wheely bin.
Dinner is served
