Haven’t looked at the models for a little while and just made the mistake of looking at the 12z MetO at T+144.

Yuck . 🌧☔️💨

Doesn‘t scream mild and dry to me!

Verging on record breaking warmth from the GFS  12z . Remarkable set up could be on the way. Followed by another Beast?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=12&time=267&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

That is a bag 'o shite

that is a beautiful chart - widespread high teens. 

Today feels the coldest of the week here, with low dewpoints and a strong east wind. We did get above freezing this morning but then the temperature plummeted after lunch. Currently -2 with a dp of -10.

Great! Time for spring warmth now

Indeed and it would be a novelty up here to see some mild and dry weather for a change. Love the snow but trying to get out and about in a foot of the stuff for a week becomes a bit of a grind.

ECM 12z appears to be joining the Euro High bandwaggon feeding up mild S/SW winds for a period. I still wouldn't be surprised to see another blast from the East late February/early March though. Time will tell.

Yes what a warm chart - I have had a break from the models but i highly doubt it would be that mild as it shows? I mean the Met office as well as BBC and many longer range models do not go for weeks of prolonged exceptionally mild weather so I think the models are going off on one here - the 12z Control looks more appropriate in line with LRF.

[quote=Rob K;1319014]

Today feels the coldest of the week here, with low dewpoints and a strong east wind. We did get above freezing this morning but then the temperature plummeted after lunch. Currently -2 with a dp of -10.

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Same here Rob...Today felt like a true raw day..Max of -0.6c...keen wind...remaining snow didnt sublimate/melt..cloud cover made sure of that..now its -3.5c with a moderate ESEterly...Icicles 2ft long hanging from the roof gutters..we had around 8cm of snow Monday/ Tues from the Wash Steamer...but today felt like a true winter day..circa Feb 78'...

you did well out of that streamer, I was just south of it in North Northamptonshire (missed it by about a mile) and we only managed 2cms maybe 3-4cms where the ground was shaded and colder. I travel over Tilton on the way to work and it was quite deep up there especially Tuesday morning, it was beginning to drift across the road this afternoon in the wind.

I think some warm dry weather next weekend will be very welcome.

Tom

The warmth will be very nice for the lockdown exercise. Might even manage some outdoor lifting in garden like in March last year...but in February *

Longer term another push from the East might well happen. At 240 neither of the GFS runs have the high tilted as favourably as ECM, yet both bring it fairly close even so. 

* provided not pi**ing down here of course

warming rapidly over the Low Countries and Germany too....so much for the Cold being difficult to budge! ...going out with a whimper if models and forecasts are correct 

Well, the models were predicting a snowy breakdown yesterday and now the breakdown won't be completed until overnight Sunday into Monday. I'd have said a delay of four days met the definition of 'hard to budge' - although clearly it's also a function of the synoptics. 

That aside, it certainly looks like at least a week of milder but hopefully, away from the south and west, not overly wet weather.

Some remarkable warm temps on offer this morning close to record breaking.. could we hit 20c in February again?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=255&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Blowtorch showing its hand again in the southern half of the UK.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 Significant pptn mainly in the W and in week 2, the NW, so the Atlantic is winning ATM - but the companion temp chart still has a large mass of unusually cold air over E Europe so don't count too many chickens yet.

GFS as before with UK sandwiched between Atlantic LP and Scandia HP for the coming week but compared to yesterday, GFS has followed ECM making the HP weaker so troughs will run up from the SW affecting UK esp Wed 17th. The HP expected later over the UK also taking longer to establish but in position Tue 23rd though more to the E than previously suggested , Usual end-of-run tease places it over Norway with a strong E-ly developing Mon 1st.

GEFS near average temp this week with some rain then very mild peaking around Tue 23rd, also dry, but a distinct cooling towards end of run. Distinctly less agreement on how mild it will be the further north you go.

ECM similar to GFS but has the HP Tue 23rd more intense and closer to the E coast.

Morning all. 

A lot of talk of very mild and dry weather, possibly exceptionally mild, but this is well into FI at present. 

We have some unsettled, potentially wet and windy Atlantic based weather to get through in the medium range first. Sorry! 😂

If we all had what the Kent crew had, then yes I would be happy to see the transition to warm

But I feel short changed by this cold spell

Some of the GEFS are hinting at a cold start to March, so perhaps we should not put away the hat and scarf yet!