theweatheroutlook

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ozone_aurora
06 May 2021 11:11:33


Which is why one should always be careful what they wish for. We are moving into a much more unsettled phase, and May is currently looking the complete opposite to April and possibly a bit of a washout.


I am a big believer that patterns for seasons set up early, so this is why I *think* the summer will be disappointing at best, horrendous at worst.


I will probably be wrong, but they are my thoughts.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


My gut feeling is the same.

Just have to hope that this May would repeat that of horrendous May of 2013, followed by very warm, dry, sunny July & quite a decent August (even if June was nothing much to right home about).

Bolty
06 May 2021 11:47:25


 


 


I'd rather have chilly and dry than 5c milder and unsettled.


This weekend looks horrendous.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


A bit nicer next weekend under a col and a wedge of warmer air:


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Brian Gaze
06 May 2021 11:47:49

The frost risk in the south is now clearly receding. The problem for amateur outdoor tomato growers like me will be the rain. It will either destroy the plants or mean keeping them inside the house for too long to make the season viable. I've had a June write-off before, but never a May one.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
06 May 2021 13:53:02

Average temps after tomorrow,  doesn't look particularly wet either.


 


 



 


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
06 May 2021 13:56:39


 


 


I'd rather have chilly and dry than 5c milder and unsettled.


This weekend looks horrendous.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Not if you want some rain for your garden 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Downpour
06 May 2021 13:58:14


Average temps after tomorrow,  doesn't look particularly wet either.


 


 



 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Yes, bang average and thankfully enough rainfall to let the gardens grow. I can finally seed my lawn (usually I do this in April but it's been too cold and dry).


 


Following a much needed dousing on Saturday, usable benign spring weather down here – a far cry from the apocalypse implied by the usual suspects on here. 


 


 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
fairweather
06 May 2021 13:59:17

Yes, I think it will feel like a massive improvement. Some rain may be at night. Any sun will push temps up. A clear improvement from weeks of an eye watering dry cold easterly.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
picturesareme
06 May 2021 14:48:36


Looking at the charts there will be some welcome rain and warmth in the South East this weekend to set the gardening season going. Whilst it looks like remaining below average and showery the following week I think we will shake of this relentless cold, windy and dry weather of the last six weeks. By mid May below average will still be 15C which will seem positively tropical after recent days!


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


I'm also in the southeast and since mid April we've not had a single day fail to reach at least 12C. Most days have been in the 13-15C range with a few closer to 18C back end of April. Given that early May the typical daily temperature down here would be 13-15C i would have to say all in all it's been boringly average.

picturesareme
06 May 2021 14:51:00



My gut feeling is the same.

Just have to hope that this May would repeat that of horrendous May of 2013, followed by very warm, dry, sunny July & quite a decent August (even if June was nothing much to right home about).


Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Even the June of 2013 was nice.. August wasn't great if I remember correctly though.

Downpour
06 May 2021 16:34:13


 


Even the June of 2013 was nice.. August wasn't great if I remember correctly though.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


Most likely the summer will be within the normal parameters of average – NW/SE split and therefore very pleasant in the south. Some members seem prone to extreme hyperbole – forgetting that, most of the time, the weather is... normal. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
06 May 2021 16:35:18


 


I'm also in the southeast and since mid April we've not had a single day fail to reach at least 12C. Most days have been in the 13-15C range with a few closer to 18C back end of April. Given that early May the typical daily temperature down here would be 13-15C i would have to say all in all it's been boringly average.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Very true – the real anomaly in April was the distinct lack of rainfall – hence why most gardeners are happy to see rain in the forecast at last. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
06 May 2021 17:14:08


 


 


Most likely the summer will be within the normal parameters of average – NW/SE split and therefore very pleasant in the south. Some members seem prone to extreme hyperbole – forgetting that, most of the time, the weather is... normal. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


What has this ad naseum point you keep making got to do with the current model output? Why not start a thread to highlight that London and the south of England has a warmer climate than the north for those people who don’t know this very obvious fact. Next you’ll be informing us all how many people live there. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
06 May 2021 17:30:20

A long way off but I wouldn't be writing off the summer with charts like this.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2021 18:55:13


 Very true – the real anomaly in April was the distinct lack of rainfall – hence why most gardeners are happy to see rain in the forecast at last. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


And the very cold nights which resulted in the most April frosts across the whole UK since records began  - admittedly only 60 years ago but still quite a statistic. But it also had the lowest minimum CET ever recorded. I'd say that is quite an anomaly. 


Edit- oops! Almost a repeat of Hickster's post above! 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Downpour
06 May 2021 19:00:02


 


And the very cold nights which resulted in the most April frosts across the whole UK since records began  - admittedly only 60 years ago but still quite a statistic. But it also had the lowest minimum CET ever recorded. I'd say that is quite an anomaly. 


Edit- oops! Almost a repeat of Hickster's post above! 


Originally Posted by: GezM 


 


True - as I said above it was too cold and dry to seed my lawn. Yet daytime maxes weren’t far from the average, which was Pictures point above.

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
06 May 2021 19:01:10


 


What has this ad naseum point you keep making got to do with the current model output? Why not start a thread to highlight that London and the south of England has a warmer climate than the north for those people who don’t know this very obvious fact. Next you’ll be informing us all how many people live there. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


The output is average, which will feel warm in the south. That’s my point. It’s normal - not exceptionally wet, not exceptionally warm, just bang standard. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
noodle doodle
06 May 2021 19:02:58


 


I'm also in the southeast and since mid April we've not had a single day fail to reach at least 12C. Most days have been in the 13-15C range with a few closer to 18C back end of April. Given that early May the typical daily temperature down here would be 13-15C i would have to say all in all it's been boringly average.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


It's almost as if the southern extremity of the UK isn't the best place to experience cold weather

Ally Pally Snowman
06 May 2021 19:10:19

Very unsettled ECM tonight  very different to GFS.  

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
picturesareme
06 May 2021 19:22:20


 


 


It's almost as if the southern extremity of the UK isn't the best place to experience cold weather


Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 


Just like the Eastern extremities are not best placed for warmth ;) 

doctormog
06 May 2021 19:38:05


 


The output is average, which will feel warm in the south. That’s my point. It’s normal - not exceptionally wet, not exceptionally warm, just bang standard. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 




Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Downpour
06 May 2021 19:44:12






Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


indeed that shows no anomaly in the SE. In fact, there’s no anomaly right up the eastern side of the UK.

Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
06 May 2021 19:50:13


 


 


indeed that shows no anomaly in the SE. In fact, there’s no anomaly right up the eastern side of the UK.


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


No, that is a resolution issue unless you believe there is never an anomaly in the SE (or you think that every other surrounding area has a negative anomaly except for eastern U.K.). The entire U.K. is forecast to have below average temperatures for the next 7 days based on this data (12z GFS op run).

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Chunky Pea
06 May 2021 20:00:24


 


No, that is a resolution issue unless you believe there is never an anomaly in the SE (or you think that every other surrounding area has a negative anomaly except for eastern U.K.). The entire U.K. is forecast to have below average temperatures for the next 7 days based on this data (12z GFS op run).


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


For some reason I cannot see your map, but I can see this one:


 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
doctormog
06 May 2021 20:03:54


 


For some reason I cannot see your map, but I can see this one:


 



Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 Yes that one shows the picture more clearly.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Saint Snow
06 May 2021 20:50:47


 


Even the June of 2013 was nice.. August wasn't great if I remember correctly though.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


That's how I remember it. The amazing July turned rubbish as soon as the kids broke up from school. August was very sketchy.


That's happened a number of times in recent years. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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