IDJ20 Is the 'Saturday soaker' nailed on in your opinion? It has now been nearly 6 weeks of this extraordinary spell of unseasonable weather The Met Office yesterday were showing warmer temperatures for the South East of 16-18 degrees for this weekend but this seems to be revised downwards now. 

What does The CloudMaster have to say about it, Ian?

would be good to see. The promised “copious rainfall” has thus far barely made a dent in the baked ground on both sides of the estuary. Hoping for 15mm+.

Lucky that we do eventually get other seasons....

My father was doing some work in a remote part of Quebec and a local describe their climate as "nine months of winter and three months of bad sledding"

😂

Be grateful you're protected by the North Atlantic Drift.

😉

16-dayer still rather cool for NW Europe though slowly improving in week 2 (but Spain still cold compared to norm); rain fairly general around the UK in week 1 resolving into a blob over S England and France in week 2.

GFS - UK in a lull between LPs, one moving away (today 985mb Denmark, bringing in a showery N-ly) and the next (Sun 9th 975mb SW Ireland, bringing up some S-lies). The Channel depression forecast for tomorrow has now been pushed even further S into N France. Sunday's depression drifts NW leaving a shallow trough down the N Sea Thu 13th. There is then a short spell of W-lies before a shallow LP drifts to N Scotland 1005mb Mon 17th bringing a cold pool which ends up over Holland Fri 21st with something warmer on either side, meaning Ireland (and Poland) rather than England.

GEFS - cold now, but mild with rain Sun 9th (other & detailed forecasts vary as to where this will be concentrated, could be Wight or could be Kent), back to cool again until Sun 16th (esp control run down to 10C below norm), generally around norm after that. Some runs with occasional big spikes of rain in the S 9th-16th and continuing in the SW. but only small amounts in most runs generally.

ECM - follows GFS except that Sunday's LP decays over the UK itself leaving a cold trough there through to Thu 13th at which point LP develops mid-Atlantic looking  to approach UK from the W rather than from the N as per GFS

Distinctly uninspiring models at the moment. A 24 hour mild spell for some on Sunday before we all return to cooler weather. Possibly near normal by mid month. Remaining unsettled too for the foreseeable future. Eastern Europe warming up nicely next week and staying on the warm side through mid May but no signs of a continental airflow to bring that warmer air our way. 

Could be worth watching. If heat builds to our east in the next few weeks the European monsoon season could kick in nicely this June.

Northern blocking still very much a major player at the moment. So heat looks off the cards for the foreseeable.  A little warmer next week though some rain but not a complete washout either. Very uninspiring tbh. 

A May CET below 10c a good bet still atm.

Good info. Thank you.

On a positive note.

We seem to get stuck in these weather ruts these days.  Very much down to a slowed down jet stream.  6 or more weeks of below normal tempatures may well revert to 6  or more weeks of above at some point.  If so, now is the perfect time to be below normal I guess.

Winter is over.

12z GEFS show a mixed bag at T+240 but a fair few with high pressure in evidence.

A better chance of high pressure holding more influence mid month .

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU12_240_1.png 

I'm not even too bothered whether it's dry and settled or showery at the moment. I just want this bloody cool air mass shifting! Unfortunately the GFS still isn't offering very much in the way of that and the ECM is similar. I expect this to be another cooler than average month.

Sunshine and light winds will feel just lovely though .

FWIW this is the far reaches of FI . https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU12_360_1.png

Plenty of high pressure in evidence but also quite a few easterlies so west would be best. 

Looking at the charts there will be some welcome rain and warmth in the South East this weekend to set the gardening season going. Whilst it looks like remaining below average and showery the following week I think we will shake of this relentless cold, windy and dry weather of the last six weeks. By mid May below average will still be 15C which will seem positively tropical after recent days!

Slackish low pressure creates a broad trough stretching from the Atlantic to Central Europe on the ECM op longer term. No lack of water potential there

The 16-dayer shows a continuing 'bulge' of below average temps S-wards over W Europe for the full two weeks even if the rain lets up a bit over the UK in week 2. Jetstream running over or a little to the S of the UK to Sun 9th. Next week a k loop from the N enfolds the UK before the pattern repeats - straight flow across or just S of UK from Sat 14th, another similar loop Fri 21st. The split into noorthern and southern streams avoiding the UK as shown a few days ago no longer features.

GFS - LP from Atlantic to SW Ireland 970mb Sun 9th throwing frontal rain across UK for the weekend, drifts NE and fills by Wed 12th, cold over UK, warm plume over E Baltic. Cold pool hangs around over SE England while something milder from the SW affects Scotland until Sat 15th when poorly defined LP brings cold air from Greenland towards UK, firming up Wed 19th 995mb SW Ireland, again drifting NE and filling but leaving cold pool over UK.

GEFS - Rain Sun 9th with burst of warmth for England, then cooler again for all and a bit drier in the S to Sat 15th. Considerable variation after that, suggestion of a little above norm temps and damp in N but below (esp op & control) in S where the focus of any rain is later on

ECM - agrees with GFS

I think for down here at least we can say goodbye to the frosts after tomorrow. 

Yes I think we're moving into a more unsettled pattern, albeit often quite slack so dry clear nights much less of a factor. Slow signs of improvement overall and a few very warm outliers at the end of the GEFS ensembles.

I think the degree of cold will not be like the last few weeks. 850's mean is at least 5C higher and we will be entering a period of high solar warming in any sunny spells. I'm expecting temperatures maxing generally in the range 14-17C  next week which admittedly would normally be seen as disappointing but still a big improvement.

I'd rather have chilly and dry than 5c milder and unsettled.

This weekend looks horrendous.

I am a big believer that patterns for seasons set up early, so this is why I *think* the summer will be disappointing at best, horrendous at worst.

I will probably be wrong, but they are my thoughts.