Jetstream runs consistently strongly jsut to the S of the UK until Fri 21st, when it begins to move N-wards, running across the UK strongly and directly until Wed 26th, before weakening and moving clear to the north (but threatening to return in the last frame Sun 30th)
16 dayer still shows a remarkable bulge of cool air into NW Europe for both weeks, with just a hint of something warmer moving up fromSpain in week 2. Wet for UK week 1, dry in week 2 with the rain band over N Europe week 1 breaking up and moving S-ward.
GFS - improved outlook (for those who want dry warm weather - some of us still really need rain, believe it or not), Uk still affected by troughs from the Atlantic though not as deep as previously and becoming a W-ly flow by Fri 21st; then HP moves in from SW and covers all UK 1030mb Tue 25th and staying around though pushed increasingly towards the S by LP in N Atlantic, notably on Sun 30th
GEFS - mean temp remains a degree or two below norm through to Thu 27th, then close to norm; the GFS op described above is one of 4 or 5 runs taking a more optimistic view from Sun 23rd but not enough to shift the mean upwards from the consensus (so still all to play for despite APS' view above). Most runs continue to show showery rain throughout.
ECM - similar to GFS, even agreeing on the HP at end of run Mon 24th, but shows it preceded by a N-ly burst absent from GFS; there is a hint of colder weather for a few days at this time in the GEFS for Scotland
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl