Scandi trough taking a little longer to clear east so cooler weather hanging on longer. But the destination is still for high pressure to begin to dominate the uk weather from about the 26th.  The ECM mean wants to clear the high pressure from Greenland aswell by day 9 this is vitally important if we want sustained summer conditions. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Indeed Ally. It’s a slowly, slowly, catchy monkey scenario. But the trend is clear. 

I only dip in and out of running through the models, not review after every run, but I was seeing a trend developing where a belt of HP would sit over/just to the north of the north of the UK, bringing a generally easterly flow. A similar picture to May/June 18.

Unfortunately, current output I've seen has that sinking south too much.

It looks overcooked to me Kieron. But the general trend towards high pressure starting a week today is clear. We will of course get hot outliers like the 12z (I’m assuming it won’t have huge support) as part of a general warming theme.

Oh yes, absolutely agreed. 

GFS is taking its lead from the jetstream which had almost disappeared for a period yesterday, normally associated with fine weather. Today's forecast shows it back again though, not very strong, but definitely present around the UK; W-ly to Tue 25th, then E-ly on the return side of a loop to Mon 30th, then W-ly again over and later just S of UK to Sat 5th.

GFS itself; current LP runs across N England with a follow-on 995mb Scotland Mon 24th; HP develops mid-Atlantic and at its closest approach moves to N Ireland 1035mb Sun 30th but always a let-down for England as NE-lies persist around its southern edge; then a more W-ly regime with a shallow depression moving across Scotland 995mb Wed 3rd.

GEFS agreement on continuing quite cool to Thu 27th after which the mean of different runs returns to seasonal norm but that conceals a considerable spread above and below with the control run notably warm around Sun 30th. Rainfall showery (but with a bonus extra in the S Sun 23rd), amounts declining noticeably after Thu 27th

ECM similar to GFS - if anything the HP around Sun 30th is less focused on the NW and is spread more widely over the UK

 Come off it! You know the recent runs weren't a massive step forwards and this isn't a massive step backwards. The ensembles look reasonably solid and at the moment I don't think anyone is suggesting the blowtorch is imminent.

Thats the massive step back I meant. Its on the charts. Not saying its likely, but that is a huge drop from the charts of yesterday, that's all I'm saying.

I don't know how people can stay sane if they are comparing figures in FI from a model that runs four times a day and then attempting to draw such specific conclusions. As Brian is saying the ensembles look solid enough and there will of course be variations from run to run but the broad trend is consistent enough. I am not seeing any notable backtracks (or forward tracks).

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Who said anyone following this thread is sane?! 😜

GFS has been all over the place recently very poor reliability.  But it does look like a delay in the settled weather. GEM also delays but gets there by 216h . 

Still a story of 'jam tomorrow'; the 16-dayer shows serious warmth over Spain ever so slowly creeping northwards but still not quite reaching Britain in week 2, while the mass of colder air is mainly over Poland and the Balkans , still too close for comfort. Focus of rain moves from UK in week 1 to Alps in week 2, with something a bit drier beginning to show in the SW

GFS current LP moving away E but replaced by another 995mb Ireland Mon 24th, followed by a week in which HP on the Atlantic tries to move to the UK but only finally succeeds for the weekend of 29th/30th (curious mini-depression over Cornwall on 28th) but pressure drops again with large but shallow trough from the N in place by Wed 2nd, that giving way to a more W-ly pattern later

GEFS cool at first but as yesterday back to seasonal norm around Fri 28th and a spread either side of the norm after that. Showery rain until 28th, bits and pieces in only some runs after that but more commonly in the N

ECM similar to GFS but some indication that the HP will hang on a bi longer after 29th

I'm going away to the South Coast next Thursday/Friday so have been watching GFS closely. There is a definite step backwards in timimg. The HP was centred over the UK next Thursday, so not really FI. Now it isn't in that position to Saturday. So not so much a pattern change as a delay. Also away this weekend to Gloucestershire - of course the crap weather hasn't changed or got pushed back !

We've had the April showers in May, and now we're getting the March winds and rain (and I've put the heating back on today).  The improvement to more settled weather is still shown in GEFS for the end of next week, but seems rather like the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

I was actually looking at the London GEFS this morning and thinking that it is finally looking consistent. For the last few days the mean 850HPa has been forecast to return to normal around May 28th, mean pressure rising around the same time but with a few rain spikes implying that there is still a risk of showers or longer spells of rain. This was never a nailed on warm, dry spell but even normal temperatures will feel tropical after what we are experiencing now 

The GFS Op at the moment is nothing short of shambolic it's all over the place. It doesn't have a clue  after 144h. Wildly different solutions every run.

If the models can't operate then the only one way for us is heading for settled with warm to hot summery weather as the unsettled weather cannot last forever now and we just 4 weeks left to the longest day now.

It certainly wont last forever but it might drag on for a couple more weeks. ECM is better though.