GEM op however isn’t fully on board so this isn’t a done deal yet.

Looks surprisingly wet in a number of runs of the GEFS. Perhaps a hangover from the extremely high soil moisture after this May, because pressure looks fairly high.

Jetstream still looping weakly around the UK for  few days, but virtually absent from the area of the UK from Sun 30th to Wed 9th when it re-appears as a W-ly across S England

GFS Op - current trough moving away E-wards and filling by Thu 27th and replaced by N-S ridge of HP from Norwegian Sea to Spain, slowly toppling so aligned SW-NE Azores to Norway Mon 31st. This then splits into two centres as LP moves up from Biscay by Sun 6th and links with LP on Atlantic leading to general fall in pressure; by Wed 9th UK is under slack and cool LP from the NW

GEFS - temps back to norm by Thu 28th in all runs, and thereafter mean of runs is close to norm throughout. The outrageous warmth of yesterday's op has gone, but both op and control suggest a warmish period around Wed 2nd, prolonged in Scotland. More rain in forecast than yesterday, but randomly distributed amongst runs.

ECM similar to GFS to Mon 31st but the Norwegian half of the HP disappears quickly and the model goes for the common pattern of Icelandic LP and Azores HP with the UK  sandwiched between in a W-ly from Tue 1st

I agree.

I was really confident of a settled and warm spell until I saw GEM, and to an extent , the latter stages of the EM op.

We still need a couple of days to see whether it’ll be a sustained spell, however a couple of more pleasant days looks a near certainty now. 

Looks like a couple of steps back from a prolonged settled spell. ECM mean day 8 to 10 lower pressure and not as warm as yesterday.  Not awful but not  brilliant either.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

The ECM and GFS ensembles have never been fully on board a long dry spell. It is pretty much nailed on now that we'll see temperatures at or a little above normal by next weekend and continuing in that fashion for a few days after. But there have been plenty of rain spikes showing and there still are, even on the ECM ens. Not another May washout by any means .....

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/precipitation

Edit: Here is Edinburgh too ....

https://weather.us/forecast/2650225-edinburgh/ensemble/euro/precipitation

A brief dry spell doesn't make or break a summer. The signals are there for a largely disappointing summer this year, I don't think there's any doubt that this northern blocking, while waxing and waning, isn't going anywhere fast.

I think summer is going to be largely poor punctuated by one or two brief drier spells....nothing I've seen changes my opinion.

I hope of course that I am very wrong, and as ever, time will tell, but I do fear a below average summer is highly likely temperature wise and above average rainfall.

The signal in some output is for LP to set up to the west or south-west next week. Warmer but far from settled

16-dayer still not wildly optimistic about temps - warmer conditions only creeping north at a snail's pace and most of NW Europe expected to be somewhere about average in week 2. Rain in week 1 mostly over the Alps with the UK on the dry side but the rain band becoming more extensive in week 2 and reaching England.

GFS Op - current trough filling and moving away E-wards with ridge of HP N-S by Fri 28th (FAX shows leftover front to W of UK spoiling this a bit, BBC showed similar with front no more than cloud cover but front over central UK). HP intensifies and forms a broad area centred over the N Sea Mon 31st. LP develops over Biscay, giving SE-lies at first, but growing and displacing the HP, covering all UK by Sat 5th (No link-up with Atlantic as suggested yesterday). It then moves NE-wards as new HP builds in from SW Thu 10th. 

GEFS - all runs agree on temps back to norm Fri 28th, then a spread equally either side of mean close to or a little above norm to Thu 10th, with op and esp control being in the warm group from Thu 3rd . Not much rain after initial showers, less than forecast yesterday and in no particular pattern.

ECM - similar to GFS to Mon 31st but then quickly develops LP over Iceland which fills as it moves SE-wards to cover UK as a cool trough Fri 4th sandwiched between two large HPs. mid-Atlantic and Poland

GEM turning up the thermostat nicely next week.

I honestly don't mind if any coming warmth is associated with rain as warm rain is good for plants and growth in general. My plants are all battered and bruised from that constant chilly wind and those hail and icy rain showers that have been the main theme of this Spring so far. 

Azores high pressure: "The reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated". 

Day 8:

Not too bad I suppose. 

😂 Indeed Brian. Some might say it could be worth letting the AH arrive before we sign its death certificate in springtime!

The latter part of the ECM ops run is near the bottom end of the ENS. GFS ops run is also below the mean for large sections (June 1 to June 5 and then June 8 onwards). Both Ops runs show what could go wrong but can be regarded as pessimistic at the moment. 

Worth noting that one often sees the ops throw out wild FI solutions in pattern-change scenarios. As you say, neither have much support from their own ensembles, although some members will no doubt treat the outliers as gospel nevertheless.

The theme is set: a fine period of weather to come in the reliable. 

Frankly, there is no weather that won't be an improvement on the past six weeks or more! 18C is the new El Scorcio!  I've just returned from the Forest  of Dean and Bristol. The forecast was accurate and Saturday was pleasant with the odd heavy shower but the rain on Sunday was unlike anything  we get here in the S.E. 7 hours of solid heavy rain with torrential downpours up the M4 and M25 yesterday till East of London where there has only been a couple of mm during the whole weekend. So even if the outlook models includes warm rain that will do.