The mean doesn't tell everything of course, but I wouldn't be backing a washout with this.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It doesn’t seem any steadier at that range to me? I think I will embrace and enjoy the ether more settled conditions before worrying about what may come after.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

If it's showing cool and unsettled, it is, in all likelihood, closer to the mark. GEM is cool and unsettled pretty early next week after the briefest of warm blips, UKMO heading the same way, and no doubt at all ECM will follow suit later.

GFS off on one again.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I was talking about the consistency you had implied was present with the UKMO. we don’t know what the ECM will show so that is supposition or guesswork. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I think UKMO and to a larger extent ECM have been much more consistent this spring. GFS has been very erratic.

ECM had this drier spell nailed about 7 days ago....I also think it will have the cool down to unsettled nailed on too, but time will tell.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Looks okay to me?  https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Tell me that the GEM and the UKMO/ECM operationals look good.

They don't. GEM particularly is pretty awful.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Tell me that the GEM and the UKMO/ECM operationals look good.

They don't. GEM particularly is pretty awful.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

If you choose an operational model in isolation over its ensemble suite, that’s an “interesting” approach. GEM shows 4mm of rain here in the next 10 days which is a particular improvement. It is also warmer throughout than is has been here essentially all year. If that’s awful, I will take it. 

I will comment on the ECM when it comes out but the mean has been encouraging.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

If you choose an operational model in isolation over its ensemble suite, that’s an “interesting” approach. GEM shows 4mm of rain here in the next 10 days which is a particular improvement. It is also warmer throughout than is has been here essentially all year. If that’s awful, I will take it. 

I will comment on the ECM when it comes out but the mean has been encouraging.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Not really on topic, and I don't know how good he is, but Matt Hugo has tweeted about pretty much writing off June. He says it looks like a very brief warm up but then a largely cool and unsettled June.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Not really on topic, and I don't know how good he is, but Matt Hugo has tweeted about pretty much writing off June. He says it looks like a very brief warm up but then a largely cool and unsettled June.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

He's a Pro who's not afraid to have a punt at a long range forecast. So he gets my respect for that. As many others sit on the fence.  But predicting the weather beyond 2 or 3 weeks is still pretty much impossible in this country so June could still go either way.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

ECM 12Z Op following the UKMO and GEM, a flattening ridge and a swift return to low pressure and unsettled.

GFS very much out on its own at the moment. I know where my money is, and it ain't on GFS.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Have another look at the ECM.  It rebuilds high pressure very quickly. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

 Movement to Gfs at 144  cut off low very important latter on  nice sun sorry run all good things looking up

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Not really on topic, and I don't know how good he is, but Matt Hugo has tweeted about pretty much writing off June. He says it looks like a very brief warm up but then a largely cool and unsettled June.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

He talks about background signals that I know nothing about, but says that all the signals are for an unsettled month. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Looks okay to me?  https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog