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Polar Low
04 June 2021 16:45:14

It is working ok I deleted 1 hour history and tried again.


 


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


btw Thanks for the updates much appreciated 


 


 




The useful 16-day  summary on http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html is giving 


The domain "wxmaps.org" has expired.


 


Anyone know what's behind this? Temporary glitch or have they given up?


Originally Posted by: DEW 

Brian Gaze
04 June 2021 17:27:21

I've added in some new charts from the UK Met global model. You can choose from 500hPa GPDM, 850hPa temps, MSLP, Cloud cover and Precipitation type. They're stepped at 12 hour intervals from 0 to 168 hours and will be using data from the 00z and 12z updates once I've finished the integration.


View here:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx


12z 168 ppt type.



 


12z 168 850hPa temps



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
04 June 2021 17:41:36


I've added in some new charts from the UK Met global model. You can choose from 500hPa GPDM, 850hPa temps, MSLP, Cloud cover and Precipitation type. They're stepped at 12 hour intervals from 0 to 168 hours and will be using data from the 00z and 12z updates once I've finished the integration


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Interesting. That must be the same source of data that TropicalTidBits are using, IIRC that's the only other site to present a 168 MetO model output chart.


The Met Office global model doesn't go out to 168 and never has done.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting


The only thing that does is MOGREPS - I had an inkling that the 168 chart on TropicalTidBits was in fact the MOGREPS control run for 168, but of course that's never been proven.


Does the source of your data mention what that 168 data actually is? Whatever it is, tantalising though it is, it's not the global model.


I guess the key is finding out how many grid points it has, as per that MetO page:


Global model: 10 km (2560 x 1920 grid points)


MOGREPS-G: 20 km (1280 x 960 grid points)


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
04 June 2021 17:52:31


 


Interesting. That must be the same source of data that TropicalTidBits are using, IIRC that's the only other site to present a 168 MetO model output chart.


The Met Office global model doesn't go out to 168 and never has done.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting


The only thing that does is MOGREPS - I had an inkling that the 168 chart on TropicalTidBits was in fact the MOGREPS control run for 168, but of course that's never been proven.


Does the source of your data mention what that 168 data actually is? Whatever it is, tantalising though it is, it's not the global model.


I guess the key is finding out how many grid points it has, as per that MetO page:


Global model: 10 km (2560 x 1920 grid points)


MOGREPS-G: 20 km (1280 x 960 grid points)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


It's from the Global 10km model. I've got access to the 00z and 12z runs but aren't bothering (at the moment) with the shorter 6z and 18z ones.  The subscription I have is directly with the UK Met.


PS: The charts ARE valid. The labelling is not a mistake and 168 hours is correct. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
04 June 2021 17:58:37


It's from the Global 10km model. I've got access to the 00z and 12z runs but aren't bothering (at the moment) with the shorter 6z and 18z ones.  The subscription I have is directly with the UK Met.


PS: The charts ARE valid. The labelling is not a mistake and 168 hours is correct. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Hmm - if it really is a 168 chart at the 10km resolution (and it's not some sort of quirk where MOGREPS-G 20km data is interpolated to a 10km resolution, e.g. "20 19" becomes "20 20 19 19") then it's about time the Met Office updated their website to reflect that fact... just seems odd that the MetO website itself only mentions the GM going out to 144, not 168.


Either way, it's always good to have more data freely available, thank you for doing this! I'd imagine the short 6z and 18z runs would be quite popular too.


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
04 June 2021 18:03:55


 


Hmm - if it really is a 168 chart at the 10km resolution (and it's not some sort of quirk where MOGREPS-G 20km data is interpolated to a 10km resolution, e.g. "20 19" becomes "20 20 19 19") then it's about time the Met Office updated their website to reflect that fact... just seems odd that the MetO website itself only mentions the GM going out to 144, not 168.


Either way, it's always good to have more data freely available, thank you for doing this! I'd imagine the short 6z and 18z runs would be quite popular too.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


The documentation and order both specifically say 156 and 168 at 10km from the Global Model. My guess is they recently extended it to 168 and the documentation you linked to hasn't been refreshed. I also believe that Euro 4 is the same model as the UKV but with a bigger grid area. I've gone for the UKV (GB and Ireland grid) to save money.    


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
04 June 2021 19:06:27

GFS flipping wildly between heatwave and northerly plunge.  ECM more steady mainly very warm and settled.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
04 June 2021 19:10:42


GFS flipping wildly between heatwave and northerly plunge.  ECM more steady mainly very warm and settled.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Was thinking exactly the same. We've had two northerly plunges and two plumes in the last 4 GFS runs. ECM looks steadier, and hopefully it will he nearer the mark.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Polar Low
05 June 2021 07:13:02

Very nice ECM rebuild  ending 13 uppers and 564 into Scotland that’s a 30c for mid England 


Last nights mean very similar 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 June 2021 07:20:00

Wxmaps' owners have obviously coughed up their domain fee and are back - thanks to Polar Low for checking - so starting there: the temp profile suggests a westerly regime, warm in the SE, cool in the NW, the cool area spreading across to Scandinavia in week 2 and any real warmth staying over the continent. Not a lot f rain, an that mostly in the NW of Scotland. (For really hot and wet. go to Spain - if only virtually)


GFS - matches the above to some extent with extension of the Azores HP extending across S England  often to Scandinavia but tending to draw back from there later on; unlike WXmaps above, the HP bubbles up every so often to interrupt the Atlantic flow - Sat 12th 1020mb covering UK up to Scotland, Fri  18th 1030 mb off W Ireland, the latter persisting while N-lies appear on N Sea coasts.


GEFS - temps rising to fairly warm (say 4C above norm) around Tue 15th, then most runs cool off a bit but with a lot of variation setting in - at end of runs Mon 21st control is 10C above norm in the S, op is 5C below!. Very little rain in the S, not a lot in the N either. The GEFS for Inverness is by far the station with the most uncertainty in both respects.


ECM - matches GFS but with some suggestion of LP over Spain developing N-wards on the last day of run i.e. The 15th


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
05 June 2021 07:20:21
UK Met run is updating and 00z looks more Atlantic influenced.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=00&charthour=156&chartname=500hpa_height&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Polar Low
05 June 2021 07:20:53

First 30c starting to show in gfs set some hot trends in the pack 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0


 


 


 

Ally Pally Snowman
05 June 2021 07:30:32

GEFS looking very warm this morning. 


 


 



 


 


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
05 June 2021 07:36:19


GEFS looking very warm this morning. 


 


 



 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Drier too I think. Very promising. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
05 June 2021 07:37:47


First 30c starting to show in gfs set some hot trends in the pack 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


A number of people have told me that 30C won't be reached in the UK this year because of the Grand Solar Minimum. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Polar Low
05 June 2021 07:39:00

gfs mean agrees with ecm in rebuilding pressure at 144 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0


 


 




GEFS looking very warm this morning. 


 


 



 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Polar Low
05 June 2021 07:43:51

Only a fool Brian would would bet against 30c in the modern U.K. summers it seems to be reached mush easier these days.


years ago I regard 25c as great in fact old fashioned bbc charts changed to red at 25c years ago.


 




 


A number of people have told me that 30C won't be reached in the UK this year because of the Grand Solar Minimum. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
05 June 2021 07:59:28


Only a fool Brian would would bet against 30c in the modern U.K. summers it seems to be reached mush easier these days.


years ago I regard 25c as great in fact old fashioned bbc charts changed to red at 25c years ago.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


And considering we managed 24.6C in March, it would be very brave to predict predict that 30C won't be reached due to solar influences.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
dagspot
05 June 2021 08:46:47
Yeah will be multiple 30dcs through summer. I’ll go for at least 2 in Jul/Aug
Neilston 600ft ASL
Hippydave
05 June 2021 08:51:03

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com


ECM ens in broad agreement with GFS - generally warm or hot for the foreseeable with little rain showing up (although as a caution the extent of yesterday's rain IMBY wasn't picked up longer term either - precip associated with building heat rarely is!). 


Longer term there's a dip back towards normal, although I've not really been looking at the ens regularly so no idea if that's been consistently shown or is just usual FI noise.


All in all and despite some pessimism brought on by May's cool and wet stuff, the first half of June is looking very likely to be warm or even hot and mostly dry. (Usual IMBY bias). 


 


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
05 June 2021 11:28:53
The fax charts are showing a few upper air troughs and convergence zones. So despite the high pressure, expect to see slow moving, heavy but localised downpours over the next few days.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Jiries
05 June 2021 13:06:00

The fax charts are showing a few upper air troughs and convergence zones. So despite the high pressure, expect to see slow moving, heavy but localised downpours over the next few days.

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Thanks but no thanks if we are in the HP zone so what it doing there anyway and who form it? Had enough of boring rain showers in May which really a killer for summer season.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
05 June 2021 21:12:09


 Thanks but no thanks if we are in the HP zone so what it doing there anyway and who form it? Had enough of boring rain showers in May which really a killer for summer season.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


I’m actually quite looking forward to a summer spell of warm days and occasional rain. Growing weather and all that. After a bone dry and cold April, and a wet and cold May, an averagely wet but warm June would make a change.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 June 2021 07:07:51

WX summary like yesterday still showing indications of a W-ly regime, cool in the NW, warm in the SE but with more emphasis on the cooler stuff blowing across Scandi in week 2. Also more rain generally in week 2 with the Euro monsoon in week 2 affecting much of Europe N of the Alps, and including the UK to some extent.


After a few days of inactivity, the Jet sets in across N Scotland from Thu 10th; after a brief meander to the N, then resumes over S England Wed 16th and stays around there for the following week.


GFS generally has HP to the S and LP to the N; HP dominant around Sat 12th, LP dominant around Thu 17th and Tue 22nd


GEFS dry and increasingly warm to Tue 15th after which time the number of cold outliers steadily increases bringing the mean of temp runs down to seasonal norm by Fri 18th, but as usual with considerable spread. Mostly dry, rainfall activity picks up at end of run from about the 18th.


ECM agrees with GFS but starts a breakdown earlier than the 17th, with a deep low Tue 15th 980mb running NE-wards off W Scotland. No sign of anything thundery from the S which ECM hinted at yesterday


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Crepuscular Ray
06 June 2021 07:53:16
After the models had been promising me a week of fine warm anticyclonic weather for my Lakes holiday, it's all changed! A westerly influence from Tues now, thats not good here ☹
At least this weekend is warm & sunny
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

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