Interestingly quite a few GEM ensembles are picking up a heatwave in the day 10 to 16 range about half . One to watch.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Interesting developments in the models today, both short and long term. We are getting a dip in 850s on Friday and Saturday which is new and wasn't really there yesterday. Means Saturday in particular may be closer to mid 20s than high 20s. Sunday also a tad down in the latest GFS 06z, with the peak on Monday.

There's also more of a spread in the change to zonal conditions, and fewer rain spikes in the ENS. I think we might have a chance of a longer but less intense warm spell. Many of the really good summers I can think of in my lifetime were relatively slow burners where modelled peaks got regularly flattened but the subsequent troughs got shallower and a regime of generally warm and dry weather persisted. Late June 1995 is a good example, so too July 2013 and an particular June-July 2018 where we never got the record breaking plumes that were often modelled but instead got ultra-persistent nice weather. Really hoping we see something similar here.  

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Very well put Tim.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I personally feel that a cooler and unsettled spell is not inevitable, even though the models past around next Tuesday are suggesting this.

There is every chance the unsettled charts will be toned down, in fact there are already signs that this is happening.

My prediction, for what it's worth, is we will see a gradual cool down next week to around average, possibly very slightly below, and there will be a few showers dotted about, but I don't think we are staring down the barrel of a return to May's conditions.

Any unsettled spell may well be shortlived in any case as the Azores high seems to have a tendancy to ridge our way a bit more later on.

All is not lost! (And no, my account hasn't been hacked, this really is me speaking)! 🙃🤣

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Interesting developments in the models today, both short and long term. We are getting a dip in 850s on Friday and Saturday which is new and wasn't really there yesterday. Means Saturday in particular may be closer to mid 20s than high 20s. Sunday also a tad down in the latest GFS 06z, with the peak on Monday.

There's also more of a spread in the change to zonal conditions, and fewer rain spikes in the ENS. I think we might have a chance of a longer but less intense warm spell. Many of the really good summers I can think of in my lifetime were relatively slow burners where modelled peaks got regularly flattened but the subsequent troughs got shallower and a regime of generally warm and dry weather persisted. Late June 1995 is a good example, so too July 2013 and an particular June-July 2018 where we never got the record breaking plumes that were often modelled but instead got ultra-persistent nice weather. Really hoping we see something similar here.  

Originally Posted by: TimS 

  I’d rather have a long spell of settled useable weather with low to mid 20’s these days.  Gone are the times when I wished for heatwaves and long sticky nights!  I’d rather be comfortable and be able to sleep!

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Hmm I’ll take both means at 144

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

pretty decent from ecm mean at 240 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

Ecm definitely an upgrade from yesterday evening summer 2021 of to a tremendous start 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

I personally feel that a cooler and unsettled spell is not inevitable, even though the models past around next Tuesday are suggesting this.

There is every chance the unsettled charts will be toned down, in fact there are already signs that this is happening.

My prediction, for what it's worth, is we will see a gradual cool down next week to around average, possibly very slightly below, and there will be a few showers dotted about, but I don't think we are staring down the barrel of a return to May's conditions.

Any unsettled spell may well be shortlived in any case as the Azores high seems to have a tendancy to ridge our way a bit more later on.

All is not lost! (And no, my account hasn't been hacked, this really is me speaking)! 🙃🤣

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The longer term outlook is not looking too pretty on the GFS 6z, I think these last 2 weeks may have been a blip in an otherwise poor Summer, but we shall see plenty of time for things to change...

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

As we struggle to get things right a week ahead that's very subjective 

Some on here would also argue that summer does not start until 21st June

I also suggest you look at where CET is currently for June

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Of course I know that we are only 10 days into meteorological Summer, and yes the CET is running much above average so far but in the same way that doesn't mean it's going to continue that way does it.

I'm simply saying what my thoughts/feeling of how the Summer will pan out are based on the pattern we had in May, and the pattern the GFS Is showing setting up again later next week. That's kind of the point of the forum isn't it!

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Well ten days in with at least another week of above average temperatures I think it's pretty safe to say the CET will be above average.

Whatever the weather in May was it will have absolutely nothing to do with what the weather in June, July, and August will be like. Also it is extremely normal to have a spelll of unsettled weather sometime around the back end of June or early July. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Well ten days in with at least another week of above average temperatures I think it's pretty safe to say the CET will be above average.

Whatever the weather in May was it will have absolutely nothing to do with what the weather in June, July, and August will be like. Also it is extremely normal to have a spelll of unsettled weather sometime around the back end of June or early July. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

The longer term outlook is not looking too pretty on the GFS 6z, I think these last 2 weeks may have been a blip in an otherwise poor Summer, but we shall see plenty of time for things to change...

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

While also a lot cooler than currently, ECM is consistently trying to ridge high pressure back in after a very brief unsettled blip.
Where the GFS is constantly projecting that green snot low pressure circulating for days on end, ECM is far more benign. No heatwave for sure, but useable, maybe a few showers and cooler, but no 2007/2012 revisited.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

UKV going for 30C on Monday.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze