theweatheroutlook

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Hungry Tiger
13 June 2021 13:18:58

ECM now playing the part of GFS showing a very unsettled mid to long-term outlook.


Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Hope this doesn't mean this excellent weather is going belly up.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ballamar
13 June 2021 16:29:23
Looks like the warmer weather could hold a little longer in the SE
moomin75
13 June 2021 16:54:54
For fear of getting widely ridiculed again, but the charts are developing that worrying 2007 look. I fear we could be in for a monstrous amount of rain in the next few weeks.
I hope we are not, but I am fearing the worst.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2021 17:06:31

For fear of getting widely ridiculed again, but the charts are developing that worrying 2007 look. I fear we could be in for a monstrous amount of rain in the next few weeks.
I hope we are not, but I am fearing the worst.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


UKMO this afternoon offers hope that the warm settled spell may last a bit longer. The 12 GFS doesn't look that unsettled either. Still think theres a significant chance of heat from the east to end June. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Taylor1740
13 June 2021 17:48:57

For fear of getting widely ridiculed again, but the charts are developing that worrying 2007 look. I fear we could be in for a monstrous amount of rain in the next few weeks.
I hope we are not, but I am fearing the worst.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes GFS and more recently ECM have been showing frequently those dreaded dartboard lows sitting right over the UK for day after day in the extended range, whether they move in to the more reliable range we will have to wait and see.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Downpour
13 June 2021 17:51:44

For fear of getting widely ridiculed again, but the charts are developing that worrying 2007 look. I fear we could be in for a monstrous amount of rain in the next few weeks.
I hope we are not, but I am fearing tthe worst.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Keep it up, Kieran. Your reverse psychology has been working a treat so far. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Brian Gaze
13 June 2021 17:58:42

Blowtorch heat from the UK Met. 


 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=uk_850_temperature&chartregion=uk&charttag=850hPa%20temp


 



 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
moomin75
13 June 2021 17:58:56


 


Keep it up, Kieran. Your reverse psychology has been working a treat so far. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 

That's the plan 👌

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Jiries
13 June 2021 18:15:13


Blowtorch heat from the UK Met. 


 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=uk_850_temperature&chartregion=uk&charttag=850hPa%20temp


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Bring it on and really hope we get this heat perfect timing on the longest day and with uppers like 20C in Kent can give them 36C while my area 13 miles east from Birmingham can get up to 34C as I know Birmingham highest record was 36C in 1990.  Last year I got up to 33.9C at 17C uppers despite wet ground and cool summer before that but this time with on the longest day, drier ground and warmer surface can give boost to 34C to very possible 35C here while 37C over London to Kent.

Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2021 18:24:26


Blowtorch heat from the UK Met. 


 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=uk_850_temperature&chartregion=uk&charttag=850hPa%20temp


 



 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Blimey! 100f 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2021 18:29:48

Significant shift in both GFS and GEM ensembles towards heat.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
13 June 2021 18:30:12


 


 


Blimey! 100f 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

ECM at the same time says a big fat NO to that and is much, much, much, much cooler, and unsettled.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2021 18:47:01

Quite a few GFS ensembles picking up the UKMO heat. The GEM ensembles are even more bonkers. 


 


 



 


 


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
13 June 2021 19:13:51

it depends Jires on lots of things  do you remember when 20 850s was higher than T at the surface


 




 


Bring it on and really hope we get this heat perfect timing on the longest day and with uppers like 20C in Kent can give them 36C while my area 13 miles east from Birmingham can get up to 34C as I know Birmingham highest record was 36C in 1990.  Last year I got up to 33.9C at 17C uppers despite wet ground and cool summer before that but this time with on the longest day, drier ground and warmer surface can give boost to 34C to very possible 35C here while 37C over London to Kent.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 

RottenWeatherAgain
13 June 2021 19:18:05
That ECM run reminds me of why I chose this username.
Why does it always rain on me?
Polar Low
13 June 2021 19:21:24

All time uk record under threat if lucky 19 came up a vast area of extreme heat 24 uppers 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=192&mode=1&carte=0

Taylor1740
13 June 2021 19:30:26
I'm slightly confused by the recent comments, I don't see much sign of 100f next weekend? In fact GFS and ECM ops look fairly cool next weekend. Other than the odd rogue run in the GEFS showing serious heat, but surely people can't realistically be expecting this to happen when they are big outliers?
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Gooner
13 June 2021 19:42:21


All time uk record under threat if lucky 19 came up a vast area of extreme heat 24 uppers 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=192&mode=1&carte=0


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Chart image


On it's own though 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Jiries
13 June 2021 19:43:23


All time uk record under threat if lucky 19 came up a vast area of extreme heat 24 uppers 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=192&mode=1&carte=0


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


That would give a 40C temps and replying your other post it depend on the condition if clear and sunny it can give higher surface temps as high as 18C from the uppers levels.

Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2021 19:57:41

I'm slightly confused by the recent comments, I don't see much sign of 100f next weekend? In fact GFS and ECM ops look fairly cool next weekend. Other than the odd rogue run in the GEFS showing serious heat, but surely people can't realistically be expecting this to happen when they are big outliers?

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


We're just commentating on the output that's all. UKMO one of the best models in the world shows 20c 850s at day 7, worth a comment

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
13 June 2021 20:07:12


 


We're just commentating on the output that's all. UKMO one of the best models in the world shows 20c 850s at day 7, worth a comment


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Not at day seven its not. Its just as fallible as the rest. In fact the vast majority of models are showing a considerably wet and very cool outlook.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2021 20:19:48


Not at day seven its not. Its just as fallible as the rest. In fact the vast majority of models are showing a considerably wet and very cool outlook.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I'm not saying it's not fallible and obviously it's an outside bet. But I think we might see a move towards it by the other models tmrw.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
13 June 2021 20:47:35


That's the plan 👌


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


cool

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Taylor1740
13 June 2021 20:52:34


 


We're just commentating on the output that's all. UKMO one of the best models in the world shows 20c 850s at day 7, worth a comment


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I tend to stick to ECM and GFS neither of which show much chance of serious heat, hence my confusion at people talking up 100f type heat like it has a realistic chance of happening, seems like a very remote possibility to me.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl

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