GEFS losing the high pressure signal somewhat later on as well. Hopefully the ECM holds firm.

It looks decent enough at the moment but given the timescale that could change.

Stunning ECM,  hot again by the end. Very different to the GFS. 

The size and number of rain spikes on GEFS charts, at least for London, has been notable for a while even with 850s around the average. I think that’s why we’re getting runs that look superficially OK at large scale but keep throwing up mid teens maxima every few days. Even in unsettled periods in recent summers the London ensemble has shown far fewer and smaller spikes than this. It’s more reminiscent of central France of Germany.

Personally I think there is more evidence to suggest high pressure will win out in the medium term rather than a backtrack to lower pressure/trough domination with the output looking decent this evening overall. NOAA anomaly charts still looking solid and helpful to view when operationals are flipping about.

ECM certainly the pick this evening but even a more moderate outcome, which is more likely, isn't to be sniffed at 

My heart always sinks a little when I come on this thread and find you're the last one to post...

But don't forget to balance your thoughts with the fact that Scotland and parts of Northern England have had a sunny, dry and warmish June

Edinburgh's mean temperature as of yesterday is +0.7, Rainfall is only 20% and sunshine already 90%

Oh nobody cares about that Ray, give over! ;-) 

ECM still looks quite good in the medium range, best weather again in the north. All depends where that pesky trough ends up. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

It doesn't look that wet in the south either. 

On this morning’s GFS it’s actually much wetter in the North. Fairly classic mediocre summer run. Maybe this levelling up agenda isn’t all its cracked up to be. Nature is healing. 

All looks fairly average to me in this morning's charts for down here - plenty of HP around, maybe some more generally unsettled stuff occasionally and depending on where the HP sits some troughs around the edges. 

Last nights ECM ens had circa 20mm or so of rain from now to the end of the month but temps looking likely to sit around 18-23c (current blip aside). The longer range part of the run was similar. 

Whilst the last 7 days down here have definitely been a bit rubbish (last 2 days more so as although the rain is lighter it's colder!) before that we had 10-14 days of dry and warm/hot weather and the charts are suggesting a reasonable amount of dry and warm days to come, albeit with enough rain around at times to keep things fairly green. 

Further North as some folks have mentioned it's been a generally decent June so far with plenty of sunshine, slightly warmer than normal and not a lot of rain. 

Plenty of reasons for optimism if you ask me

Precious little consistency in the models day to day - as noted above, wxmaps has gone back to cool and moved the rain from the south to the north. Jet has little action until Fri 2nd when stronger W-ly becoming an unfavourable loop and some W-ly fragments thereafter

GFS Op - broad area of HP from the W but the 'green circle of doom' appears Sat 26th as an embedded trough, slow to clear and replaced by cold NW-ly Thu 1st (that wasn't there yesterday) becoming a trough over the UK Mon 5th before HP on the Atlantic makes a tentative approach

GEFS -  mean o f temp runs close to norm but increasing scatter from Mon 28th along with intermittent rain 25th onwards

ECM - a little better, esp in the N; the area of HP is less affected by shallow LPs though they are there in the Channel and finishes up with a decent area of HP centred Scotland Fri 2nd

On the other hand the EC is quite wet in the south, but with plenty of nice weather for most of the country.

It's all about that pesky trough , dont think we are any closer to finding out exactly where it goes or how long it hangs around yet. A few 100 miles will make a massive difference. 

The ECM mean is as warm and settled as it's been all summer this morning. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

He's certainly dedicated to the cause.

As for next week it's a lottery at the moment. Anything from 1976 to 2007.