Quite unusual output at the  moment lots of high pressure around but a pesky small trough hanging around like a bad smell on some of the output.  Models really  struggling exactly where it ends up.

wx maps showing some improvement in temp week1 (could hardly be worse) and then positively warm inland week2; the Euro monsoon is parked over France and areas S of the M4 look wet for both weeks.

GFS - HP pushing in with main LP area moving S (BBC last night gave 2 competing scenarios for this, one with LP over Italy, good for UK, one over France, not so good). Despite the broad area of HP persisting for a full two weeks, shallow and fairly local embedded LPs, mainly towards the SE, spoil the general outlook one would expect (typically the LPs are 1015mb in an area of 1025mb). Any earlier suggestions of a N-ly or Atlantic influence have disappeared.

GEFS - in the S, temps back to norm Fri 25th and in most runs gradually increasing to ca 3C above norm by end of week 2. Intermittent rain esp in control and op runs. In the N, temps recover a day or two earlier but stay only just above norm. Also rain on and off, but looking more like showery bursts.

ECM - also has a general area of HP for the UK but more of a definite centre over Scotland at 1030mb for the most part. and almost no embedded LP

UK Met looks quite wet in the south.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=00&charthour=132&chartname=uk_Precipitation_rate&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=00&charthour=144&chartname=uk_Precipitation_rate&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=00&charthour=156&chartname=uk_Precipitation_rate&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=00&charthour=168&chartname=uk_Precipitation_rate&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

Since they upgrade the models had gone worse and never come off accurate on the day i observed.  I still expecting warm and sunnier from midweek with low 20's here.

Again things look very poor indeed for the foreseeable future. The sad thing is that the macro picture is pretty good, with a Northerward displaced jet. It's these little cutoff lows that are wasting a reasonable pattern.

We desperately need the seasonal shift in the subtropical jet to blast away these lingering June Monsoon troughs. No sign of it yet, certainly over France which is getting soaked.  In fact part of the problem is the subtropical jet is virtually non-existent. Not seen it so week for a long time. The Polar front jet remains fairly strong and very far North, except for its little loop over the British Isles.

Usually the jet shift happens around the week after the solstice, after the Monsoonal shift North of the Himalayas (which has already happened) and the establishment of the large scale heat trough around the Middle East (which also seems to have happened - the Meltemi is up and running over the Aegean). I think we're just very very unlucky this year that the one spot in the Euro-Atlantic region with troughing happens to be our little spot . 

GFS06z shows the green circle of doom paying the UK a visit later this week. Highlights a degree of uncertainty even in the relatively short range outlook https://t.co/Wu1HEw43jl pic.twitter.com/s6eonpaDr1

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) June 21, 2021

All looks rather 'meh' than very poor, but I do realise you areliving in a wetter part of the country so that will no doubt have its influence. ECM and GEM both far better than admittedly a poor GFS 06z this morning. 

Could be a lot worse with many northern areas still very dry.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

I’ve just run the 00z ECM op run which shows a broad anticyclone pushing in from the west at T+96 becoming a fully fledged UK High for the rest of the run. 

I would challenge your assertion that things are looking “very poor indeed.”

However, given UKMO and GFS both look poor, I think ECM is off on one and poor sums it up.

Deleted 

Just trying to give some balance (and probably failing).

There's no doubt ECM looks much better, and GEM isn't bad either, but UKMO and GFS don't look great, and that's just commenting on what is being shown.

deleted 

I wouldn't call these ensembles very poor,  maybe average.  But it's very difficult to make a call on the next 10 days or so as the pesky troughs final destination is completely unknown atm.

Yes Ally - thanks for highlighting the GEFS - a mixed outlook for sure. 

I would challenge the assertion that the outlook is looking very poor, and the settled outlook from ECM and GEM provide some evidence that a more balanced view is probably more sensible right about now.

Many northern and western areas are yet to receive any rain btw. 

👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍☺️

Let's put this very poor vs OK discussion into some context and see if we can find a way through. My social media today has been filled with colleagues in the North posting pictures of sunny walks up the Pennines (we have a corporate day off), while here in London it's 12C and the rain is bucketing down. So I suspect it's quite possible to look at the same set of models and interpret them in very different ways depending on what's outside the window, as well as the experience of the last 4 days - which have seen almost 80mm fall in large parts of the SE.

What's more look at the actual models themselves and the contrast is stark. We are looking at the same maps and seeing very different outlooks in our backyards.

ECM 00z accumulated rainfall for the length of the run: https://meteologix.com/bo/model-charts/euro/england/accumulated-precipitation/20210701-0000z.html

The other models are wetter but more uniformly so. ECM continues wet for the far S and reasonably dry elsewhere. That rain will be falling on already close to saturated ground.

When you have had such a dire few days of weather and - in my case - just come in from a walk to the shops wearing shirt, hoodie and raincoat and still feeling cold, there is naturally a tendency to disbelieve any hint of improvement in model runs and believe wholeheartedly anything that seems to promise more of the same. 

I do think we need to see the subtropical jet assert itself. When that happens the tendency for troughing over France and Biscay ends to dissipate and the flow becomes more westerly, which should help to blow away the nagging area of low heights around the channel. 

Problems arise when people make IMBY posts, which are understandable but it would help if that was stated in the posts to avoid confusion and conflict.  It would also help ‘model numpties’ like me, if we had a bit of analysis and reasoning behind posts, instead of simply saying ‘GFS looks good’ etc.  Please!

Here, between the wet South and sunny North, we’ve had half an hour of drizzle today and six hours of moderate rain on Friday.  Apart from that it’s been dry but mostly cloudy!  

Well you'll all be pleased to know this evening's model set so far is every bit as meandering with that indecisive mini-trough as the last lot. All are the same up to Thursday then diverge enough to give very different weekends.

ICON has the slowly sinking trough hanging around and deepening before swinging away at 180hrs with more waiting in the wings; GFS has it loitering to the West with warmish but unsettled weather into the weekend, before moving back across and away over the next few days; UKMO has a concerted attack of high pressure from the West with the trough further into Biscay; GEM is a cross between the good bits of GFS and bad bits of ICON.

Midnight Sunday charts (+ midday Sat UKMO) for comparison. Subtle differences yet very different conditions on the ground.

Clear as mud still for the 12z, all 3 models so far handle the trough of doom differently.  GFS has it right over the uk for days. GEM pushes it sw and we get a mini plume. UKMO is more high pressure dominated.