UK Met Global now looking mixed in the south for much of next week.

I am surprised you trust the long range models that much - even so they're not exactly there to forecast any pattern with confidence anyway, more an indication of trends at that particular time. They will change regularly, as they often do.

At a glance, long range models look average which is to say the usual variations will be apparent as we head through the summer. It is why any long-range text summary will hedge its bets with most summer weather types occurring at one stage or another.

To concur with just about every other poster in this thread, there is no evidence to write off the summer. Certainly not based on one stubborn trough that may dampen the south for the next week.

I am glad you're going to bring in some subjectivity though - it is not like the rest of us are predicting a BBQ summer 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

GEFS 00z is looking less promising for the south than some of the recent updates. 

It's a different picture as you head north.

Come off it, it’s obvious why! 

Apart from that, your post is excellent. 

Brian's GEFS post above covers the outlook neatly though IMO any changes for the south since yesterday are only marginal. 

GFS keeps HP around for the coming week but that patch of cold & wet LP embedded in it sticks around S England/N France until Fri 2nd and even then HP is to the W so winds still in the NE for much of UK. fter that the ridge topples slowly and a W-ly pattern sets in by Thu 8th  (last frame Sun 11th shows an autumnal LP near SW Iceland, not at that stage affecting UK exc far NW)

ECM also shows that patch in place but replaces it after Fri 2nd by a large LP mid Atlantic wit S/SW winds, cool in the NW but could be quite warm in the SE Mon 5th

EDIT - I misread Brian's post so  have tweaked this one

GEM, GFS and ECM all have high pressure building in nicely in about 7 days. 

Until then decent for the north of England unsettled further south. Difficult forecast though as some days look ok some days quite poor. Bit of a nowcast situation. 

Some people get annoyed with Moomin because he writes off Summer all the time at the slightest hint of unsettled conditions .  But I dont think hes being entirely serious most of the time. 

I have to say I’m loving every second of this. Let me explain why. 

I often get sick and tired of the baseless, annoying stereotypical commentary about Manchester’s weather, more specifically its rainfall. This more especially from people who move here from other parts of the country.

I hear it every single day - it’s become a natural part of small talk. 

“it always rains in Manchester”. Well no actually, it doesn’t.

”it’s never sunny here”. My sunburn will tell you different.

”it never gets hot ever” . Well actually it does sometimes. In summer quite often actually. 

When viewing an apartment balcony last year: “not that you’ll get much chance of sitting out here knowing Manchester’s weather”. Well actually I’ve been sitting in the park all lockdown as it’s been sunny the entire time.

Yes it is statistically wetter here in terms of rain days than most major towns and cities in the UK (NOT Glasgow) which is much wetter, but Cardiff for example gets more rain in terms of the amount of water. But the city’s wet reputation is overstated all the time and it gets right on my nerves. I always bite back as well which must make me seem a bit odd and anal about it. 

Rant over! 😂😂😂

😂😂 To be fair it’s drizzling today. 

It's not even been that bad in the south.. he is just a broken record always wanting brownie points for predicting never ending rain. The last 9 day's have for sure seen some wet weather in what was an otherwise very dry month up until that point, but even in those last 9 day's there have been some nice sunny warm dry days. Unsettled weather in June (especially back end) is completely normal and to be expected most years - so predictable they built a roof a Wimbledon because of it!!

This weekend actually looks pretty good for 95% of the country maybe some rain for the south coast Sunday. 

I suspect a lot of that is down to perception of rain days/rain duration rather than actual amount. I think that parts of eastern England are as dry as anywhere you will find in Europe away from the Mediterranean but it will seem wetter as our rain is  fairly evenly distributed throughout the year and also relatively light in nature. What day would seem wetter, 5mm from constant light rain/drizzle or 5mm from a short thunderstorm in an otherwise sunny day?

Good point Col. The last week or so has been more notable for the lack of sunshine (Wednesday was the only sunny day here) in late June than the amount of rain. If we'd had 60mm of rain spread over a few torrential thunderstorms and then the sun had reappeared for a few hours on each day, most people on the forum would be loving it. 

Back to the models, there is an increasing risk that the whole of my week in south Devon, starting this Saturday, will be affected by rain. Some models are showing it drying out from Wednesday others are showing it lasting until Friday. Longer term there are increasing signs of a return to a more typical pattern of high pressure to the south west of the UK.  North and west is best next week. If you've decided to have a holiday in the Scottish highlands and islands, next week is looking glorious. 

I really noticed this when we moved from Manchester to Maidstone back in the day. Both places have about the same amount of rainfall, but Manchester has the reputation because the rain took longer to fall, and the cloud hung around for longer.

 I can well believe you got tanning lotion in Manchester, it is a common product

Manchester 15th rainfall volume, 9th for rainy days.

Liverpool a few places drier.

Leeds is wetter than both (which I find surprising)

I know we're venturing way off topic but the rainfall stats are interesting, particularly that Manchester is drier than Leeds!

I think in a country as small as Britain relief is probably the biggest determinant of rainfall. Take my field for example. It's in Kent, which contains some of the driest sites in Britain close to the sea particularly the Thames Estuary. It is in the far South East. But being inland(ish) and in a N-S valley up in the downs at about 80m asl it actually gets a lot of rain, despite also getting lots of sunshine and warm average temperatures. I've measured 569mm in the year to date and considering the second half of the year is on average wetter, that probably means ending up somewhere between 1,200 and 1,500mm for the year. More what you might associate with the Welsh hills. There are 2 stations within 5 miles of me one of which gets almost exactly 50% of my rainfall (on the Eastern side of the ridge and I am on the West), the other about 75% (on the Northern edge). Some of that may be rain gauge calibration in the other sites but I know mine is pretty accurate as I've calibrated it with a physical collector.    

By the way this evening's ICON is a nice one. The rain ends mid week and tops out at 28mm in Wessex and 25mm around London (2mm in Manc, zero in Glasgow).

Before LeedsLad comes on and whips us all into shape, I can pretty confidently say Manchester is wetter than Leeds (certainly in terms of rain days, not sure about actual rainfall).

Leeds’s figures are misrepresented from the Bingley weather station which is 200m up in the Pennines - for Leeds itself you’d be better off using Church Fenton which is much much drier. 

Manchester (Woodford) is also wetter than Liverpool (Crosby) but not by much. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

That trough really is hugging the Channel like a limpet isn’t it? Poor Moomin. 

7 day rainfall totals per this evening's GFS:

London 74mm(!)

Manchester 9mm

Glasgow 2mm

Skye and most of the Western Isles: zero mm.

I went on holiday to Skye around this time last year and it rained non-stop from start to finish.