Good to see that Wetterzentralie is now updating the ECMWF charts in 3h steps, at least for the first 24hs, on their site:

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - ECMWF Europe 12Z

Better for short term forecasting. Hopefully they'll start narrowing down subsequent charts soon and start including the 6z and 18z runs too. 

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I never said it was. Temperature wise it certainly will only be just above average I would think. Still snowless here so far though.

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With 8dc being forecast, I don’t see that happening.

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I wouldn’t want to say it for definite but the chance of wintry weather this winter (by end Feb) is all but over for the southern half. Will still clutch at any straws but there are none currently

Bon voyage all.
Think it’s time to let this winter sail away!

See you in April 🤣

UKV has a midday temp on Sunday of at or around 0c, presumably for higher ground, it's also showing snow:-

GEM also shows a spell of snow for a similar area.

Bit odd really as the weather I saw earlier mentioned a spell of rain for Scotland and Northern Ireland and that was it. Based on the 850s etc. I'd have thought there's a reasonable chance of some snow, especially for higher ground. 

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Mid lattiude blocking theme seems to want to continue as we go into February. I think people forget that vene ina milder then average winter you can still have a few snowy spells with below freezing temperatures and people will remember that winter as a cold winter. Just like the like 2021 summer was statistically warmer then average but as far as most people are concerned it was cold, damp and grey

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Statistically it was warmer than average probably due to cloudy warm nights 

I never take ststistics at face value.

Straws a-plenty around 8-10th Feb but as the direction of approach is from the NW, I suspect that any accumulation will be over hills as it's not a really cold source. And it's FI. And there's zilch south of the M4

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx (GFS 0z and select pptn type)

 

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 It was the ninth warmest on record across the UK according to the Met Office.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/2021-a-year-in-weather-a-review

If you think it was "cold" I suspect you are not old enough to remember the 1980s. 

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Continuing the off-topic comments about July. I was in NI for a week in the middle of the month and it was very far from cool. I remember it as a very warm month overall.

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You’re a jolly old sole 😉😂

No change really in the extended and the long Autumn continues.

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I see that the GFS is still going with a band of snow crossing Scotland on Sunday night. I’m not convinced yet.

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More interest for Scotland this morning, hopeful I can at least see some snow in the Cairngorms next week. It really doesn't take much to get snow at 300m asl up there, the synoptics looking like they will be good enough at times , although admittedly mediocre for many others.

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WX summary - perhaps a slight shift of cold air away from Turkey and into NW Europe in week 2 - but don't get excited, Europe is still showing temps above norm. Mostly dry for UK for week 1, but a band of pptn stretching from N Atlantic down the N Sea and into Germany and Poland intensifies in week 2.

Quite a strong jet running W-ly across Atlantic, tending to dip S and die out in the neighbourhood of Britain

GFS 0z - blocking HP near UK, mostly centred to the SW so NW or W-ly winds predominate; LP more established around the 10th so colder from the Greenland direction(but the 18z last night was showing LP developing in mid-Atlantic and travelling across UK in week 2, so not a fixed outlook)

GEFS - temps up (now, 2nd, 8th) and down (31st, 5th, 10th) and a little rain; in the S from 1st, a lot more in the NW throughout

ECM - like GFS

For coldies may I recommend P13 around the 7th (a juicy NE-ly with temps 13C below norm for the S) or P30 on the 11th (12C below norm on a N-ly). P22 isn't bad either (a NW-ly).

 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0 

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Just introducing a few red herrings

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It may not have been a very warm summer on paper, but boy was it muggy - by far the highest dewpoints I've seen in an English summer. (Normally 17 or 18 would be the peak, for a few days, but last year saw repeated 20s and even 21s. It felt tropical as a result!)

Meanwhile back to the models and it's a case of a textbook zonal sinewave, biased towards being above the long-term mean (of course).

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=6&ext=1

 

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Model watching this winter is quite a fishy business 🤔

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The end of the GFS is my straw to clutch this morning - although many promising cold changes have been in the distance. Could see a cold end to Feb with that pattern change

 

Well this is why you need to be careful with statistics  

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IMO rather than climate change (this decade at least) preventing any cold weather (something that I have never believed or said - incidentally), despite the reduced number of incidents, and perhaps fewer long periods of severity, there might also be more extreme variance and turbulence. Potential for the odd extreme event via SSWs and displaced polar vortex. The ambient what were normal cold snaps will be more benign.

What will happen when we hit 3 degrees above pre-industrial times is anyone’s guess...but gladly I wont be around to see it.

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To my eye, scanning the output from recent days, there are now clear signs of a period of unsettled weather coming up, potentially stormy at times and with some sharper cold interludes.

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Still there on the GEM too FWIW.

UKV does have some snow still but more fragmented than last nights effort. I'd guess it's also nudged the snowline up a bit judging by the distribution on the accumulated chart.

As GtW says, looks like some more active weather and sharpish colder interludes once this HP moves off a touch so I guess at least some interesting weather for the higher ground further North, hopefully some decent sunshine down here.

 

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A few occasional  colder incursions for the south as cold fronts periodically slip down from the north at times. Pressure remains fairly high though for the foreseeable. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

 

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The bolded bit would be my concern. Certainly, there are signs of a change but there is a risk that the high pressure will mean that the cold fronts won't make any impression at all down south.

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